GPP Spots to Target
This is a weird fantasy day for my first blog attempt. Two games have already been postponed. Tiger is only four strokes back in a Major in 2018. Felix Hernandez might be chalk coming off a DL stint. But let’s get down to business. I’m going to go into some potentially slate breaking, low owned stacks.
Chicago White Sox
I know the White Sox have been a sub par baseball team this season, but having an implied total of 3.5 runs against the shell of Felix Hernandez seems low. The 1-6 batters in their projected lineup all have an .ISO above .170 and Safeco is a fine ballpark for power. They are also cheap on DK. Yoan Moncada is the highest priced hitter and he’s 4k. If you want to pay up for pitching, then this is the perfect stack to do so. It has the added bonus of leveraging against those willing to chance Felix having a good start in his return.
It is going be 106 degrees at first pitch. The target temperature for an increase in fantasy production is about 90 degrees. As we saw last night when the Indians and Rangers combined for 17 runs with 5 HRs, the ball flies when it is hot. I stacked this game last night against Trevor Bauer at sub 1% ownership and got nearly 150 points from my hitters alone. My pitching was awful, which sunk me. I’m going right back to the well here. Especially since I think everyone is going to play the Indians and overlook the Rangers. The negatives here are obvious. Carrasco is a good pitcher, they are at home, the Rangers can be boom-or-bust, and they strikeout at a high clip. The positives are it’s hot, they are cheap on DK outside of Choo, they offer great leverage against Carrasco owners, and they will be low owned. There is the added bonus of facing the still bad Indian’s bullpen if they get to Carrasco early.
While it won’t be 106 degrees in Kansas City, it will be around 90 degrees at first pitch. In the month of July, the Twins are averaging 6 runs per game, which is 2nd only to the Indians. They also have an implied team total over five runs by Vegas and a phenomenal match-up against Jakob Junis. Junis has been crushed this season on both sides of the plate, but has been worse against lefties this season with a wOBA over .340, an .ISO over .200, and a K rate of just 17.2% against LHB. The Twins’ lineup tonight features 7 lefties. Four of those lefties have an .ISO over .200 a wOBA over .375 against RHP. The 2-6 is in play here along with Jake Cave batting 8th. The other important factor is the the Twins sport the highest fly ball rate in the Majors at 40%, it’s hot, and they’re facing a fly ball pitcher.
Last night was confusing. Everyone wrote the Pirates/Reds game off when it looked like the weather was going to force a PPD despite it being a great spot for the Pirates. As luck would have it, the game played and the Pirates went on to score 12 runs including a Grand Slam from Sean Rodriguez. The situation is similar tonight against Anthony Desclafani in muggy Cincinnati, but the Pirates seem to be going over looked. The Great American Ballpark is a phenomenal hitters park, the Pirates are on the road, have 4 lefties in their starting lineup, and are facing off against a pitcher who has allowed an astonishing .341 ISO to lefties this season. Every single batter is in play here with an emphasis on Corey Dickerson, Gregor Polanco, and Colin Moran. The 1-5 stack is the best stack in terms of numbers, but don’t be afraid to add in guys like Josh Bell, or Sean Rodriguez if you need the savings.
That’s all I have for today. Thank you for reading and good luck in your contests. Let’s take down some GPPs!