GPP Spots to Target

Hey everyone! Welcome to the third edition of my blog.

I’m going to go in a different direction with this article. This slate is pretty limited in pitching options, so I’m going to go into those a bit first. I think there are some sneaky pivots in the pitching department for tournaments.

Burch Smith
I have a pretty good feeling that Eric Lauer is going to be chalky tonight. He’s just 4k and he’s a lefty facing the Mets. The Mets are certainly bad and I even played Lucchesi last night, but the ownership is way too high for a guy that can get blown up by even the Mets. The perfect price pivot is Burch Smith. Burch Smith has similar upside with a 25.7% K rate against lefties and the Tigers lineup will have him facing 5 lefties. The only one of those five lefties with a K rate under 20.6% and that lone lefty is Victor Martinez who does not worry me. This play still does have a decent amount of risk as Burch Smith has allowed a 45.8% hard contact rate, a 12.9% walk rate, and has allowed an ISO of over .200 to both sides of the plate. I think you’ll be able to get Smith at a fraction of Lauer’s ownership, so I think he’s worth the risk.

Ryan Borucki
This one is less about Borucki’s talent and more about how abysmal the Twins have been against left handed pitching. Their starting lineup has a .126 ISO, .286 wOBA, and a K rate of 21.2%. Borucki has been decent this season with a XFIP of 3.38 and 20.2% K rate. The main issue for Borucki is his walk rate of 10.2% and the Toronto ballpark. It’s definitely a hitter’s park, but with the limited power of the Twins, I think the risk is worth it.

Jordan Zimmerman
So this is weird to type because Zimmerman is 8.8k on DK and that’s ridiculous. But I love targeting the Royals and Zimmerman seems to have figured it out. His walk rate is 4.3%, his K rate is 23.2% and no one is going to play him because he’s overpriced. The Royals’ starting lineup has a .300 wOBA and .143 ISO against right handed pitching with a 20.6% K rate. I don’t think ownership is going to match his upside here, so he’s worth a look in tournaments.

Alright, that’s all for pitching. Let’s move on to the GPP bats!

Oakland A’s vs. Texas Rangers
I’m going to start this section by saying that ownership will probably be spread out with the amount of good spots for offense today. So there are a couple of spots I think are going to go under-owned today. This is the first spot. I will target any and every game where the temperature is over 90 degrees and first pitch in Arlington is looking to be 97 degrees. Every bat on Oakland is in play, but I would limit my exposure to Pinder and Canha as they are the most likely guys to get pitch hit for. I also doubt Lucroy hits another Grand Slam tonight, so I might go underweight there as well. On the Texas side, I would stick to the 1-6 batters in the lineup and I would target Joey Gallo everywhere I can tonight. Montas struggles with lefties with a .204 ISO this season against them and Joey Gallo has a .264 ISO against lefties. Sign me up.

Houston Astros
This is looking to be a slate where both sides of Coors will be severely under owned. As everyone knows, Coors Field is the best hitter’s park ever. Even with Gerrit Cole and Tyler Anderson pitching, this game still has a Vegas line total of 10 runs. I love targeting Coors when they are under 10% owned, especially when one of those teams is the Astros. The Astros’ starting lineup has a .351 wOBA against lefties and their home ball park is a pitcher friendly park. To compare, the Rockies starting lineup has a .353 wOBA this season against righties and they play in Coors. I think this is the time to jump on the Astros. I’m considering going with a full game stack because Coors can go off at any time.

Seattle Mariners
This is my sneaky stack of the day. Andrew Suarez has been awful against righties as he has allowed a 50% hard contact rate in over 250 plate appearances. The 2-5 hitters in the projected lineup for the Mariners all have over an .155 ISO. I love the full stack, but a mini stack of Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager is also viable. If Mike Zunino is back tonight I would add him to the mix as another power bat.

That’s all I have today. Thanks for reading! Let’s take down some GPPs!

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