GTF: DK Cash Games Week 3
Hello everyone I’m back with my DK Cash Games Blog for Week 3! In this series I’m going to be going over some nice plays you can use in your cash games on Draftkings to overcome that rake and end up a winning player in the long run. Football is my favorite cash game sport because just box score watching won’t get you very far. Because there are so many variables to consider every given play, knowing who’s actually good can give you quite the edge when looking to make lineups in the future. With so little data points to look at any given season, numbers can lie but your eyes don’t.
Week 1 Outlook
These past few weeks salaries have been tighter and tighter and that’s great for the people who delve deep into their research as it’s harder to come up with viable plays. But value tends to open up throughout the week and it’s the case this week as well. DraftKings has been really good about pricing up people ahead of time to avoid lopsided pricing but there’s only so much that can be done. Knowing who is actually good and who are traps are going to be a big factor in who cashes and who doesn’t.
Lock of the Week
Corey Clement ($4300): Everyone is talking up Latavius Murray and with good reason; Dalvin Cook is out for Week 3 and they play a Bills defense that isn’t good and SHOULD get blown out leading to massive workload. But at a $1500 discount you can get a feature back that has a pass-catching skill set against a terrible IND defense. With BOTH Jay Ayayi and Darren Sproles out Clement will get the bulk of the work. Carson Wentz is back and even though he’s not as much of a check-down artist as Nick Foles is he’s going to be better for the offense as a whole leading to less stack boxes, a more wide-open playbook, and more scoring opportunities. In my opinion he’s the true free-square of the week over Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard.
Fade of the Week
Tyreek Hill ($8500): I’ve been enjoying the gravy train that is the Chiefs’ offense as much as the next guy but when I start hearing that people are thinking of playing Hill in CASH GAMES then I know things have gone too far. All the signs point to that being a terrible idea. To begin with, his price has been steadily increasing every week meaning less value. Next, regression is coming for this Chiefs offense just due to math. They literally can’t keep this pace up no matter who they have at QB and coach much less an essentially rookie QB. And third; the nature of how Hill scores points is boom or bust. Yes he might be the greatest player of all time in that DeSean Jackson category but he’s still in that category nonetheless. He’s probably the fastest guy in the league and in this offense is playing out to his full potential but to play him in cash games at his price? That’s playing with fire that could blow up in your face.
Drew Brees ($6400): Am I in an alternate universe? is Kirk Cousins more expensive than Brees? The Saints have no running game to speak of and they will be resorting to the Lions’ philosophy of dumping off to your RBs as a substitute to the run game. With ATL’s injuries on defense those dump-offs should be quite fruitful to inflate Bree’s stats throughout the game and should lead him to easily getting to the 300-yard mark and pay off his deflated salary. He’s in a dome and no Mark Ingram; not much to overthink here.
Cam Newton ($6000): At $400 LESS than Brees we have Newton at a deflated price and barely above guys like Jared Goff and Alex Smith. This must be a mistake. He’s almost guaranteed to return value on his salary and with his running ability cheat code has the upside to destroy that value. I like having cash game QBs that should hit value pretty safely but also have in their range of outcomes to dramatically exceed it if things break right. The same thing happening to Brees is happening to Newton just with McCaffrey instead of Kamara; I see Newton’s passing stats to get inflated by his new weapon out of the backfield.
Melvin Gordon ($7400): The way I see it; I’m getting all the positive traits of the guys at the very top of the price bracket for an approx. $2000 discount. Gordon is the jack of all trades back. He doesn’t do anything exceptionally but he does everything above average. He also has ELITE volume which is more than what we can say of Kamara. Everyone is afraid of Ekeler but he’s a COMPLIMENTARY back to Gordon not someone who will replace him. The Rams are an amazing defense but I think that will lead to Rivers having to get rid of the ball quickly which should end up smothering Gordon with targets. I’ll take store brand prices for a quality product.
Giovanni Bernard ($5900) and Latavius Murray ($5800): At this point everyone has spoke their fair share about these 2 backs so I’ve grouped them together here. These guys are by no means free as their starters’ injuries became known before prices came out for Week 3. But in this age of committee backfields it’s going to be rare for 2 workload backs to be under $6000 in the same week. You can make the argument for either back as they’ve both shown to be able to handle #1 duties for at least a temporary basis before in their careers. While I would go Clement before I even considered any of these two; depending on how your lineup construction ends up you can make room for one of these two guys alongside him.
Michael Thomas ($8900): Yes he’s the most expensive receiver on the slate. Yes his catch to target ratio is unsustainable. I don’t care. Thomas is a GREAT player with a GREAT Quaterback with a GREAT pass-catching back to get attention off of him. He was able to get 31.9 fantasy points last week and didn’t even get the 100-yard bonus. Without a stable running game Brees has no choice but to rely heavily on Thomas which is leading to an insane volume of targets. Thomas is such an amazing route runner and a contested catch player that Brees trusts him whole-heartedly which is a match made in fantasy heaven.While his price is extremely high you’re paying for his ridiculous floor that he has achieved in Ingram’s absence. Ride the gravy train until it goes away in Week 5.
Nelson Agholor ($6100): We have a real QB in Philly again! No one can take away his Super Bowl run but Nick Foles isn’t a good starting NFL QB. Wentz is back and that means a lift for this whole offense. With the lack of weapons Agholor should continue getting his target share but now with a higher expected return on those targets as this offense should be more explosive and have more scoring opportunities. That means a lot of fantasy goodness with whoever is left on this Philly offense and Agholor seems like a prime target to break out against IND.
Eric Ebron ($3400): Everyone is on Geroge Kittle this week and for good reason as the KC/SF game looks to be a shootout waiting to happen. But with Jack Doyle out for Week 3 and Andrew Luck playing in more of a West Coast-style offense it looks like Ebron is poised for quite the game. I’ve never been a huge fan of Ebron over the years but he’s looked better with Luck as his QB and he still has a very affordable price tag. Without having to share the spotlight with Doyle it looks like Ebron might be ready to shine in Week 3.
GPP Dart Throw Play of the Week
Something fun I’ll do is just mention a quick GPP play that could be low-owned and pay high dividends if it hits.
Will Dissly ($3300): He’s quietly over the past two weeks ended up with the most fantasy points than any TE on the main slate for Week 3. His price is still insanely low compared to his production due to his low ownership to start the year. Wilson is playing for his life out there and with the diminished weapons Dissly has stepped up to the plate. He won’t score a TD every week but this could be a good time to bet into the winning streak at his price and ownership. Also pairing him with another TE could lead to some nice differentiation especially if you plan on putting some high owned plays around a double TE lineup.
This blog is always pretty long but hopefully you stuck around and enjoyed my perspective on DK cash games and were able to get something out of it! Let me know what you think in the comments below and what are some of your favorite cash games on either site for this week!