GTF: Week 1 Blog Review
Hello so Mondays I’ll be trying to go over last week’s recommendations and seeing where I went right and wrong so that I can improve my process. As we get more data points and information we’ll be able to make better decisions about what we’ll think will happen. Every week is it’s own puzzle!
Lock of the Week
Jordan Reed ($4000): At his price, outside of an injury he was unlikely to bust. He’s too talented and this offense looks tailor-made for Alex Smith skill-set. His price got a bump to $5000 so it looks like DraftKings agrees that he wasn’t priced appropriately. He’s a big body and when everyone is healthy he’s the best receiver on the team.
Fade of the Week
Mike Evans ($6700): While results-wise I was wrong; I don’t think this was an egregious mistake if we’re looking at the process. This game was more of an indictment of the Saints defense than a turning point for the Buccaneers offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick had the game of his career and Evans caught 100% of his 7 targets. This was just uber-efficiency against a defense that I thought would be better but looks like it’s back to it’s old ways. This is the kind of roller coaster you can expect from this offense and this was one of the high points.
Drew Brees ($6800): As stated above it looks like the Saints D is back to it’s old ways again and that means Brees will never be comfortable with a lead or be in the them a large amount of the time in the first place. There was 14 total carries in this game and it looks like we can expect more of the same at least until Ingram returns as Gillisllee lost the trust of the coaching staff here on top of not being super good to begin with. Even Kamara only had 8 carries here since the Saints couldn’t afford to let go of the gas pedal.
Case Keenum ($5100): I was very in on the DEN offense last week mainly due to how bad I think the SEA defense is and Russel Wilson’s ability to not allow things to get out of hand. I by no means think this makes Keenum a lock moving forward but he’s not so incompetent an NFL QB that he can’t take advantage of the weapons he has on his team. Hes an OK real life QB but could prove to be an interesting fantasy QB moving forward depending on the situation.
AJ Green ($7300): This is nothing to pat myself on the back about. What we thought would happen did happen. Colts D isn’t talented and a team we want to target moving forward.
Emmanuel Sanders ($5000): I’m a little proud of this one since I’ve always believed in Sanders’ talent and wholeheartedly believed his struggles were due to disastrous QB play and a lingering injury. Both of those things are out of the picture and his price was free to boot while playing a bad SEA defense. All the stars aligned which made me pretty confident in this decision. Again while Keenum isn’t very good; the upgrade from trash to competent should keep the ship afloat for both DEN pass catchers.
Jack Doyle ($3600): Things were looking a little iffy early in the game but they picked up later and Doyle finished with 10 targets total for the game. While he didn’t find the end-zone here at his price you can’t be mad about it. Luck looked like he had command of the offense again and with a QB of his caliber at the helm the floor AND ceiling of everyone in this offense inherently increases moving forward.
Lesean McCoy ($6000): This was a straight up oversight by me. This was one of those times where the situation was too much to overcome. I drastically underrated the drop-off from Tyrod Taylor to the Barnum & Bailey show we saw against the Ravens. They just sink this offense down to such a level that McCoy didn’t have a chance to make it out of the sludge. With only 10 opportunities total for McCoy he didn’t even get a chance to make it up in volume. This is not a great look for him moving forward and while I can’t trust him in cash games until I see some kind of improvement at the QB position; his talent, ownership levels, and price decrease does put him in the GPP conversation moving forward.
Rex Burkhead ($4200): As stated in the blog last week I wasn’t super enamored with this play. I was putting my eggs in on his price and him being in the Pats offense. He got 19 touches which is more than you can say for most RBs in this price but the Pats backfield can be so unpredictable week to week that it’d be hard to play any of them in cash games unless we get more injuries. If he falls into a TD than everyone would feel better about it but you can say that for most players and in this offense while they’ll be in the red zone a decent amount of the time; it can easily go to 1 of 4 other players there and trying to figure out who it is isn’t something I want to be doing in this backfield.
GPP Dart Throw of the Week
Mike Gillislee ($3400) + the Saints D ($3600) stack: This was an unlikely combination to hit anyway and depended on a certain gamescript taking place which was the farthest from what actually happened as possible. Gillislee fumbles which esentially ends his relevance early and Fitzmagic takes the roller coaster ride to the top and stays there this week. Hopefully it turns out better next time.
All in all i think it was a pretty good week for the blog overall by no means perfect but who is? Comment below who your core plays were that hit or didn’t and we can heal together. Looking forward to taking a plunge at the film and data of this past week so we can take next week by the horns!