GTF: Week 3 Blog Review

Introduction
Hello so Mondays I’ll be trying to go over last week’s recommendations and seeing where I went right and wrong so that I can improve my process. As we get more data points and information we’ll be able to make better decisions about what we’ll think will happen. Every week is it’s own puzzle!

Lock of the Week
Corey Clement ($4300): While he didn’t end up setting the world on fire last week I think this was a good pick process-wise. I was able to get 19 touches for a really nice price and had Clement been in the game instead of Smallwood for that TD it would’ve been a smash spot for Clement. While Indy’s defense played better than I thought they would have I don’t think they’re a matchup to avoid by any means and I would make this play 100 times out of 100 again. This backfield looks like a straight up platoon even when Ayayi comes back so I’ll probably be staying away when that happens.

Fade of the Week
Tyreek Hill ($8500): I don’t know how much credit I should get for this one as it was pretty self-explanatory. This is more of just seeing the signs and acting objectively. This pick wasn’t based on me thinking Hill is a bad player or anything of the sort. He could’ve easily caught a 75-yard TD and made his stat line more respectable. But again the nature of how he gets his points and the way his price has gotten up there’s no way you can ever really play him in cash games.

Hits
Drew Brees ($6400): This was a no-brainer since the Monday morning I looked at players and salaries. His price compared to the other options on the slate baffled me to no end and figured he’d be a lock in everyone’s lineups. We still have another week before Ingram returns before we have to start putting some thought into whether or not we play Brees so lets enjoy this last week of fantasy glory while we can.

Cam Newton ($6000): Even without the 2 rushing TDs he still would have hit value for you this week. Having the rushing cheat code gives him so many ways to produce fantasy points that it’s actually a little ridiculous how his price was so low. Newton is never going to wow anyone with his QB play in the pocket but he has the physical ability to make ALL the throws which you just can’t say for a lot of guys in the NFL. He was able to produce a 30 point day throwing for 150 yards and giving McCaffrey TWENTY EIGHT carries. He’s just a beast.

Giovanni Bernard ($5900): No amazing analysis here. We know who Bernard is. He’s an above average NFL RB who can catch passes out of the backfield that had all the work going his way for one week. While Clement was the main guy I was locking into lineups this week Bernard was slightly ahead of Murray for me so that ended up working out for me. He didn’t destroy value but what we want in cash games is floor and that’s what he gave us.

Michael Thomas ($8900): He was able to give you what you wanted at his price without even scoring a TD in a 43-37 game. THAT is what I call consistency. Just like I said with Brees we have one more week of the gravy train before Mark Ingram returns and things balance out again but Thomas has got the GOODS. He won’t crater down to rock bottom but he can’t keep up this volume all year as he’s on pace for over 500 receptions which last time I checked has never happened before. But hey you never know first time for everything. (kidding)

Misses
Melvin Gordon ($7400): Everyone outside of Mike Williams had a pretty mediocre day on this Chargers offense. Yes the Rams defense is awesome but I was banking on more dump offs happening due to the pressure the D-Line would be giving Rivers. He didn’t get ELITE volume which is how Gordon tends to make his money at but it happens. Ekeler had like a 12 yards per carry in this game so get ready for he people screaming for him to take Gordon’s starting job I can’t wait for it. Sigh.

Latavius Murray ($5900): He was my least favorite of the “chalky” plays but you couldn’t argue with the situation he was in during the week. My biggest concern for him is that he’s not a pass catching maestro so he has less ways to stay on the field and in general on PPR sites guys who don’t catch passes are hard to put in your lineup if they’re over like $5000. I’m not even going to try to pretend that anyone could have seen what happened Sunday happening but that’s why I try to use talent and price as my main focuses for evaluating and matchups after that. It was a mistake to include him in the blog as even if the Vikings did get an early lead they’re a pass first offense and they most likely would have gotten that lead via the air anyway. In the blog last week I literally didn’t write one thing about Murray SPECIFICALLY because I truly wasn’t into it. So all in all just a bad decision.

Nelson Agholor ($5900): While the strategy I thought the Eagles were going to employ ended up being the one they went with; the way they executed it didn’t go in Agholor’s favor. Wentz didn’t complete a pass to a WR until halfway through the second and that means it wasn’t going to be a huge day volume-wise. I never expected him to have a huge day since his ADOT has been so low this year but I was expecting at least 12 and ended up with half of even that low expectation.

Eric Ebron ($3400): While this is technically in the “miss” section I would do this play again in retrospect. He got 11 targets and 3 targets in the Red Zone. That’s more than what you could expect for him price but it didn’t end up working out. Ebron even did his signature drop special spectacular . As I said in the blog last week I’ve never been a huge fan of the player but he’s got the athletic gifts and the situation was ripe for the taking. It just didn’t work out. Variance.

GPP Dart Throw Play of the Week
Will Dissly ($3300): The gravy train grinded to a HALT this Sunday with Dissly ending up with 1 catch for 4 yards. Not exactly slate-winning numbers. But alas he was a dart throw and a low priced TE that didn’t work out. These plays aren’t meant to be sure things. They are sure to be low-owned plays that if they hit should put you ahead of the field in a nice way. And all you need is one great lineup to make it all worth it.

Conclusion
All in all i think it was a pretty good week for the blog overall by no means perfect but who is? The one play I truly regret writing up was Murray but we live and learn. Comment below who your core plays were that hit or didn’t and we can heal together. Looking forward to taking a plunge at the film and data of this past week so we can take next week by the horns!

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