GuarGuar's NBA Pick and Pop: 1/20/20- MLK Day Edition
: MLK is probably my favorite NBA DFS day. We have two great main slates and it’s a full day of basketball. Some really good contests on both sites today. I always try to get out a good article for this one. This PnP will be about the afternoon slate. TBD if I will make another later regarding the night slate. Some big injury news to monitor that would open up some chalky value (Sixers, Pelicans). Anyway, let’s dive into this 9-game afternoon slate!
Kyrie Irving (7800 DK/8300 FD): A few days ago, the Nets were in Philly and got beat. Kyrie struggled mightily (shot 6-21) and then called out his teammates in Kyrie fashion. I don’t really care about what happened last week. This is a great matchup for Kyrie and I think he can crush for his tag on both sites. Philadelphia plays a very soft drop coverage when defending pick and rolls. Kyrie has run PnR 50.3% of the time and 12.9 times a game this season. He’s going to have a bunch of good looks from midrange, which is his bread and butter. I think he goes for 30+ real points here in a game that should have a great pace to it. Kyrie’s median projection is around 5.7x his tag. Very stackable game in my opinion, you just got to wait for the Horford injury news to figure out who to use on the Sixers.
Devonte Graham (7100 DK/6800 FD): My reasoning for Graham today is similar to Kyrie. The Magic should play a drop coverage in pick and rolls against Graham. Graham runs PnR 46.7% of the time and 9.5 times a game. He loves to chuck 3s and should get plenty of decent looks today. It just comes down to whether they go in. But theoretically he will be getting better looks than average. His tag is pretty cheap on both sites compared to what we’re used to. Similar to Kyrie his median projection is 5.7x his tag. The pace of this game is not great and possessions will be limited, which is a concern. But that’s factored into the price tag. Great gpp play.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (6200 DK/6700 FD): The Grizzlies host the Pelicans today in a game that should have a monster game total (not out yet) and a really fast pace. Both teams are in the top 6 in pace. New Orleans has a bunch of injuries in their frontcourt right now and we don’t exactly know who is going to play for them today. Regardless, I love JJJ today at 6.2k. This is the type of game environment he excels in. A ton more opportunities to pick up those peripheral stats, and he’s a matchup problem for New Orleans. The Pels don’t really have a guy that ideally matches up with Jackson. There probably will be some chalk Pelican today based on injury news. I love the idea of running it back with JJJ.
Andre Drummond (9600 DK/10,200 FD): Drum and the Pistons have been rolling of late, and today they are in Washington for a game with a 233 total. Drum didn’t crush the Wiz in their first two games, but this is a forward-thinking article here! Washington has given up the MOST fantasy points to centers this season. This is a big pace up game for the Pistons. If Drum stays out of foul trouble and this game stays close, I absolutely think he can pay off this DK tag and be a core play. Bryant and Mahinmi are both positive rebound funnel spots. The Wizards also give up the most rebounds per game to centers. Drum has a 52-point median projection which is 5.4x his price tag. This is a prime spot to see Drum back at his 20-20 ways.
-Shai (price compared to other stud guards)
-A big decision today is what to do with guys like Beal and Siakam. Both are coming back from injury and their minutes are in question. However both are much cheaper than we are used to and they are popping in early optimals.
-Pay attention to Philly/Pelicans news
-One of Hunter or Reddish will probably smash for Atlanta. The Raptors will hard trap Trae, leaving the wings pretty open for 3s. Both are similar price points and deciding which of the two goes off is pretty hard. But one most likely will pay off their tag and be a great piece at low ownership.