GuarGuar's NBA Pick and Pop: 12/13/19

Recap: Monday was a really good day for me led by Love. Today is a good slate but the DK has made it hard in my opinion. Not because the pricing is too tight, but because it’s too soft. There are a ton of studs that are underpriced, and a ton of value options because they didn’t pay attention to injury news. Like there are 4 very viable 10k studs tonight and 3 more 9k studs. All very difficult to choose between. Then there’s also like 5 very good under 4k value options. A ton of ways we can go because DK’s pricing is so soft. Anyway, lets dive into this 9-game slate.

Guard

Tyus Jones (3700 DK/4300 FD)/D’Anthony Melton (3900 DK/4100 FD): With Morant out tonight, these Memphis guards will be popular value options on this slate. It’s hard to decipher between the two. Tyus probably starts, but Melton has been much better on a FPPM basis and probably sees very big minutes too. Both are under 4k on DK and are prime to smash their tags. Milwaukee also plays at the fastest pace in the league. Melton is probably blowout proof, but is Tyus? Tyus has a 6.2x projection and Melton 6x. Both are phenomenal plays and you probably could play both in the same lineup. I think I slightly lean Tyus though on DK and Melton on FD.

Ben Simmons (8200 DK/8800 FD): With all these underpriced studs on this slate, it really surprises me that Ben has a fair 8.2k tag on DK. This is a fantastic game environment for Ben against the Pelicans. This is the second night of a back to back for Philly. Does Embiid and Horford play? Those are questions we should have answered later. But even if Embiid doesn’t sit for rest, Ben is still in a great spot to pay off this tag. I love playing him in these fast-paced high total games. Way more opportunities for him to rack up those peripheral stats. Great triple double upside for him tonight.

Forward

Jonathan Isaac (6100 DK/7000 FD): There’s a decent chance Vuc returns tonight for Orlando, however I still like Isaac against the Rockets. Houston is a massive pace up game for the Magic, and I like playing Isaac in games where he has more opportunities to rack up those peripheral stats. He’s only 6.1k on DK and has a 35-point projection, which is 5.7x his tag. Houston has given up a ton of fantasy points to forwards this year too. He has 40+ fantasy point upside here and I’m more than willing to roster him tonight.

Omari Spellman (3100 DK/3700 FD: With Draymond out and Paschall doubtful, it sets up an opportunity for Omari to get big minutes against the Jazz. Chriss will be another popular option, but he is so volatile that I refuse to play him almost always. Spellman has shown to be consistent when given big minutes this season. He’s got a 24-minute projection and projects to 6x his tag. I think his upside is 25+ fantasy points too, which would be an absolute smash. Another great value option to go with today.

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns (9900 DK/11,100 FD): KAT and the Wolves host the Clippers tonight in a game with a 230 total. The weakness of the Clipper defense is in their frontcourt, so it’s very possible Karl smashes tonight. Both these teams are top 7 in pace this year. I mentioned in the intro today that the 10k range is absolutely loaded. Deciding among KAT, LBJ, AD, and Embiid is very difficult. KAT has the best projection and I think the highest floor out of the group. He’s got a 55 median projection which is 5.5x his tag. He’s got 60+ upside for sure and for 9.9k, I’m very interested. I think what I do with KAT depends on his ownership tonight. If he’s going to be very chalky, it makes sense in tournaments to pivot to one of those other 10k studs.

Fades:
-Vuc
-Butler

GPP Pivots:
-George
-Lou (FD)
-AD
-Hield

Sneaky GPP Game Stack:
-LAC/Min (I think Minny side will be more popular for sure, PG/Kawhi probably don’t get great ownership)

About the Author

Comments

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Love the KAT call. Ben should smash, but he sometimes disappears and underperforms in cake matchups.

  • GuarGuar

    • Blogger of the Month

    @sochoice said...

    Love the KAT call. Ben should smash, but he sometimes disappears and underperforms in cake matchups.

    Agree. GPP play only for sure unless embiiid sits

  • BEAST

    no joe over spida take

  • GuarGuar

    • Blogger of the Month

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