GuarGuar's NBA Pick and Pop: 7/30/2020
: THE PICK AND POP IS BACK!!!!!!! I am so excited to get back in the swing of things after this long layoff! I always have a blast doing these writeups and the feedback I receive from the community. Well I guess let’s do this!! We got a short 2-game slate to start off this NBA restart. Some massive contests across the industry too. Should be a great night. Let’s dive into it!
Donovan Mitchell (7000 DK/7200 FD): The Jazz play the Pelicans in the first game of this NBA restart. A big pace up game for Utah as NOLA is 2nd in pace this season. This game has the higher total at 223 so I would expect more ownership in this matchup. Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the season with a wrist injury so there is a ton of usage to go around. I think Mitchell will take on an even larger offensive role and really start chucking. His price tag is absolutely way too low for his usage and this matchup. Mitchell runs pick and rolls 48.3% of the time and New Orleans has been the 5th worst PnR defense this year against ball handlers. They used to hard trap but midway through the season they changed their scheme to make it a lot softer. Mitchell is a lock for me on both sites.
Jordan Clarkson (4200 DK/4300 FD): Clarkson will probably be the cheap chalk option of the night, and rightfully so. He theoretically should see the biggest minutes bump with Bogdanovic now out. 30ish minutes with a 24%+ usage rate for this cheap is very intriguing. Then you factor in the matchup against New Orleans and it looks even better. However, in large tournaments there is quite the case to be made to fade JC. He historically is very dependent on reaching value through just scoring points. So if he has an off shooting night, there’s a decent chance he doesn’t get there and you have a large edge on the field.
Paul George (7200 DK/7400 FD): I really don’t understand PG’s price on either site. He’s an Allstar that is now fully rested and is low 7k???? Lou Williams and Trez Harrell are also out for LAC so there’s EVEN MORE usage to go around tonight. PG’s median projection is over 6x. I really don’t get this low price tag. He’s a lock for me tonight on both sites. I’ll eat the chalk and differentiate elsewhere.
Pelicans forwards discussion (Zion: 7500 DK/7100 FD and Ingram (8300 DK/7300 FD): The biggest news tonight is whether Zion will play, and if he does…how long? Statistically Ingram has been way worse this season in games that Zion has played. Way less usage and worse efficiency for BI when Zion plays. Now if Zion is out, I think Ingram becomes a near lock. The easiest way to beat Utah’s defense is through the pick and roll leading to a midrange shot. That is Ingram’s bread and butter and is why he has torched them so far this season.
Now back to Zion. If we get word that Zion should see his normal run, I think he’s a great play on both sites. The Jazz don’t have anybody who can guard him, and they are a team that generally refuses to double team. He will bully Royce O’Neal 9 times out of 10. He’s got a pretty fair tag too on both sites. Monitor the news. Be prepared for all scenarios.
Danny Green (3500 DK/4100 FD): I think Danny is my favorite cheap tournament play of the night. The Lakers don’t have Rondo or Avery Bradley. They need perimeter defense tonight against the Clippers. I expect Danny to see a slight uptick in minutes and usage. I also think the Clippers will double team AD which should lead to a lot of kickouts and more open 3-point opportunities for the Lakers. But this DK price tag is just sooo cheap and appealing. I think he can be a phenomenal low owned tourney play tonight. He does have upside when he gets really hot from 3.
Rudy Gobert (7100 DK/8200 FD): I’m not exactly sure if I will use Gobert on FD tonight, but on DK that tag just really stands out. It’s not a great matchup for Rudy as Favors is a really good defender. But one would think he should be able to pay off this Draftkings tag. A pace up game means more peripheral stat opportunities. The Pelicans love to attack the rim so there will be block opportunities. And who knows maybe some of that Bojan usage goes to Gobert. I think there are routes where you can go really cheap at center tonight to afford studs elsewhere. But I got to writeup a center and statistically Rudy is simply the best play.
-none on a 2-game slate
Let’s get it!