How I built my first place Double-Up lineup last night (292 score for cash)
My name is Mully Fein and I have been playing DFS for over 2 years strictly on FanDuel. This is my first Rotogrinders post and I hope to build a following of people who want real advice on DFS strategy and a different look that what they usually see by taking a different analytical approach. I am currently 14-0 in cash lineups in the month of February and 11 of those have hit quintuple ups.
I’ve seen MANY people on forums posting recently looking for advice about how others are winning or constructing their lineup’s so figured I’d share how I built by 292 cash lineup last night.
Keep in mind, this is strictly cash.
When playing cash, we always discuss the “floor” as more important than the “ceiling”. If playing 50/50’s and DU’s, you get same amount for 1st as middle of the pack (which I felt that hard way last night) so you don’t need to strive for the perfect score. So here was my thinking for last nights slate:
Both games on the slate had a rare opportunity because both had a 3in4 b2b playing against a fully rested team. Being that I wanted safe over upside, I clearly targeted rested players trusting them more than tired legs. So let’s take it game by game.
WIZARDS AT PACERS:
First you have the Wizards at the Pacers with Indy just playing a tough physical matchup against CLE the night before. Seeing PG13 put up only 24 FDP on Lebron made me fade him even with good DvP. The reason being is simple: I am not taking a guy on b2b who may have tired legs after guarding the most physical SF in the league. Many people look at 3in4 b2b as an obvious negative for offensive talent (rightfully so) but you also have to look at the opportunity from their defensive performance being down and target the opposing team. So I immediately decided I wanted 4 Wizards on my team. Being there was crazy value at C (which I will discuss later), I got set on Wall/Beal/Porter/Markieff as my core. It helped that Wall and Markieff were clear cut locks regardless of rest vs. tired since the slate was bare of any PG or PF value. As for the Pacers, Teague was someone I didn’t want to touch with a 10 foot pole since he started hot the previous night against Kyrie in first half and then cooled off….another sign of fatigue. Not paying 7600 for a guy who barely hits 30 these days and needing mid 30’s for 5x. There were 2 interesting plays from Pacers side: Monta Ellis and Myles Turner.
*Ellis has been putting up FDP in the mid 20’s all week but hasn’t seen the price increase one would expect….especially on a 2 game slate. The DvP was poor but for 4300, you had a very high floor and if he goes for 20, you are perfectly happy with that over your other SG options. Since I locked in Beal, Ellis was a perfect compliment since I can stack the game as well and get some Pacers exposure.
*Turner plays much better at home than on the road so I loved him in this spot. Only problem was, Kelly Olynyk was in the other game and for about 2k less in salary, I didn’t mind fading him. No reason to pay up at C on this slate and again, 3in4 b2b is on my mind.
So here is what I have so far heading into 2nd game:
Only players I would consider coming back to revisit is Glenn Robinson in case I needed a cheap SF but wanted to break down the 2nd game slate first before even considering.
CELTICS AT BULLS:
Let’s jump into PG because that is where I had to make the toughest call. Do I want to pay up for IT2 knowing he very likely won’t touch value but is safe for 35+ or do I gamble on Rondo narrative of facing former team. I say IT2 won’t touch value because he was priced at 10k and has been hitting around 40 in the last few weeks so on a 3in4 b2b, you’d be thrilled with 40 (which is exactly what he got). However, I don’t want to be thrilled with 4x in my cash lineup and would rather aim for 5x. So I looked at what Rondo would get me in other areas if I saved at PG. Thankfully, Jimmy Butler was playing on full rest for the Bulls and Jae Crowder was not touchable on 3in4 b2b against a tough defender so I’d rather have a starting SF with high upside than pay down for Glenn Robinson and get my 4x from IT2. I got more comfortable with this decision the more I looked into it. Butler and Rondo it is!
So now we have PF and C left.to fill and $4.7k average to spend on the positions. There was really only one decision to make and that was at C because Taj Gibson at $4.6k against a weak Boston frontcourt (though they have been better in L5 and L10 games) was the definition of safe for me. So here is the C breakdown:
Robin Lopez or Kelly Olynkyk? Both had really strong resumes as I will break down now
First the good.
*Robin Lopez was playing against Al Horford and his god awful defense (6th most favorable dvp). He iss on full rest and should have a very solid game from opportunity standpoint by only need 23.5 FDP for 5x value.
*Kelly Olynyk was coming off a hot game at home the previous night (surprisingly) and not nearly as affected by 3in4 b2b since he hasn’t been logging that many minutes. He had been averaging 27 FDP over L5 games which was 45% increase of season average. He was clearly the hot hand.
Now the deciding factor.
*Robin Lopez may have had the right matchup but he is really not as good at home as he is on the road. Those numbers were glaring to me and I felt a little nervous that Bulls could look to Portis/Gibson to matchup with the Celtics undersized front court and not need Lopez as much.
*Meanwhile, Kelly Olynyk was sold once I saw he puts up 5.7x on the road heading into the contest (versus 4.1x at home). Being this was a road game, I felt that the theory was Stevens gives more minutes to Kelly on the road since Horford is a terrible road player (3.8x value on road versus 5.1x at home). So I can safely assume that Kelly was going to get the 25 minutes on the road he had been averaging plus he had the hot hand. Just fell in love with him in this spot.
So here is the final lineup:
I strongly advise people to make a lineup they really like first before exploring other options (like should I upgrade to MCW over Ellis and upgrade elsewhere?) Can I fit IT2 over Rondo and just take out Butler? The reason being is because once you are set on a favorable lineup, it’s harder to get thrown into a bad loop of swapping out players and trying to be perfect. I saw many lineups had Teague or PG13 and feel like they were made because they felt if they get up from Rondo to Teague, it was worth downgrading someone like Porter to Glenn Robinson or Markieff to Kevin Seraphin.
MULLY TIP: Don’t make excuses to play someone….find reasons to play someone
Just because it makes everything fit into a nice, $60k lineup doesn’t mean it’s going to work. You need reasonable expectation that your lineup will hit value.
Please leave any feedback or comments below on what content you would like to see in the future.