KBO DFS: Quick Arguments for Seven Stacks
There are tons of ways to go with bats on Saturday morning’s KBO slate. So many that I couldn’t choose one on which to write. Therefore, we are going to look at all of them and why they should be considered. Once ownership projections are made available, we have a lot of wiggle room in terms of direction. Hopefully, this will have us prepared to pivot.
This is the chalk. The opposing pitcher, Se Woong Park, carries the second-highest HR/9 (1.04) and highest on the slate since 2019 and hardest hit rate (23%). Park isn’t a bad pitcher, but when Doosan gets a HR rate over 1.00, we have to listen. The problem is that everyone is listening. In a single lineup, Doosan is excusable because it’s Doosan against a righty, but not necessary. There are two pitchers with incomplete information who might fly under the radar and set us up to win a tournament.
That said, Jose Miguel Fernandez (.995), Kun Woo Park (.886), and Jae Il Oh (.971) all have high OPS’ versus RHBs since 2019. Fernandez has 24 HRs, Oh 23, and Jae Hwan Kim 18 over that span. Jae Ho Kim hitting .336 this year. They’re so expensive that mini-stacking is probably the way to go, as we should be spending on SPs.
The highest HR/9 since 2019 on the slate goes to Hyeong Jun So at 1.17. He has only 4.30 K/9, a 4.3% K-BB%, with a robusto 5.32 FIP. Good control at only 2.54 BB/9, but this guy is obviously throwing meatballs. We only have 46.0 IP with which to work, but when this groundball pitcher gets taken to the sky, it leaves the yard.
With Ja Wook Koo out with a sore thumb (insert joke here), Samsung’s numbers are weak against RHPs, but we have to take what we can get against this pitcher. There’s a mini-stack in here somewhere. Tyler Saladino is back and we should probably start there. Through 125 PAs against RHPs in his debut season, the former MLB player is slashing .310/.440/.570 with six HRs and eight doubles. Catcher Min Ho Kang is $4,000, but is second in the projected lineup in ISO, behind Saladino’s .260, at .209.
Don’t fall in love with Sang Su Kim on DK where he’s $4,800. We’re really just chasing steals and leadoff man PAs. The rest of his numbers stink against RHPs. Chase him on FD for a three-man stack where he’s only $8.
Imagine not getting on the field for Hanwha since 2018. Jin Wook Kim has only 6.2 career IP since breaking into The O over two years ago. Over 34 batters faced, he threw the first strike 55.8% of the time, which isn’t terrible for The O, but it’s still bad.
SK is better against lefties, but they really shine against pitchers who struggle to throw the first strike, as we outlined yesterday. Jamie Romak and Jeong Choi are the usual suspects for booming power. Don’t forget Ji Hoon Choi, who is slapping the ball around pretty well for only $2,900 on DK and $5 on FD. Ji Hoon is hitting .299 and easily makes up for the premium price we pay for Romak and Jeong.
Speaking of unknowns, I buried the lede here with NC. They face Min Ho Lee, an 18-year-old with a (hilariously) impressive 33.1-IP start to his career. Everything looks OK from Lee—average Ks and low HR rate—but he has a control problem, averaging 4.05 BB/9. And that HR rate, lol.
He’s allowed zero home runs in 33.1 IP. Not crazy for a junkballer who induces a ton of grounders, but that isn’t this guy. He has a 0.61 GB:FB ratio. That’s right, folks. He’s given up zero HRs out of 44 flyballs, due to 13% hard-hit and 21% soft-contact rates. Without having seen him, we can assume that he has a high IFFB%? But, still, a 0% HR/FB% over 44 events is pretty stupid.
Stack the whole Dino lineup.
Kia is less appealing than the previously listed, but we could get them low-owned against a LHP with a 0.86 HR/9 since 2019. Not a lot, but that’s up to 1.00 this season with a 4.97 FIP. Seung Ho Lee might not be a gas can, but he isn’t very good. And what makes Kia mediocre is that they can boom or bust on any given night.
Kia has five hitters with ISOs over .180 versus LHPs since 2018: $3,600 OF Ji Wan Na’s .254; 1B/OF Hyung Woo Choi’s .203; Preston Tucker’s .197; $2,300 2B Joo Hwan Na’s .193; and $3,100 LHB Min Sang Yoo’s .182. There’s our stack.
KT Wiz and LG Twins
These are leverage plays against good but vulnerable pitchers. Both stacks are like Kia in that what makes mediocre teams is that they don’t show up enough, but they break the slate when they do.
KT faces Chae Heung Choi, who is probably a top-three pitcher on the slate, but a 0.91 HR/9 and 4.85 FIP gives us space to give it a shot with MVP candidate Mel Rojas, Jr., a switch hitter better from the right side of the plate. Rojas has a .314/.383/.628 slash line against LHPs since 2018 and will have somewhat depressed ownership. Somewhat.
Jae Gyun Hwang is struggling this year. but has the second-highest OPS (.878) on the team against LHPs. Han Joon Yoo comes in third at .874. Both are slugging at least .495. We can avoid Baek Ho Kang for his price tag, though. Hitting over .300, but an ISO under .140.
LG faces the most expensive pitcher on the slate, Mike Wright. Even if Wright isn’t heavily owned, LG will likely be avoided. Wright has given up 0.87 HR/9 and carries a 4.78 FIP this season, along with a 3.92 BB/9. This is ripe for regression.
Roberto Ramos could see some of his lowest ownership of the season, crushing it with an 1.106 OPS against RHPs, with a .353/.430/.676 slash and 13 HRs in 156 PAs. Hyun Soo Kim has 16 HRs and 35 doubles against RHPs, dating back to last year. Chun Woong Lee with 21 steals.
All of this is to say, I have no idea who I’m playing and who I’m definitely fading from this post. Fun slate, though.