KBO DFS: The Argument Against Mike Wright
This Fourth of July slate is fun. There are more questions than strong arguments that come out of the analysis, which is normally the case.
You see? I go through the pitchers, one-by-one, before I do anything else. I write some notes here and there, start a pitcher pool in one spreadsheet and a stacks pool for tournaments in another, then, I go through hitters and start a player pool for cash. On another sheet in the notebook, I write questions to explore for this space.
I write questions instead of obvious strong takes because I usually don’t enjoy writing on the obvious. I use the questions to give me topics into which I can perform deeper dives. From those deeper dives, I decide on which argument to write.
Today, I’ve made my notes and pools, but am left with the questions at this time. I’ll just share those with you after a short ill-constructed argument against Mike Wright:
Mike Wright is tragically average with a matchup dripping of mediocrity, while priced as an ace. Hard pass.
The result in terms of run expectation: Wright’s FIP is 4.95, just below the KBO runs per team per game of 5.16. People, this is not a near-$10k pitcher.
For comparison, Se-woong Park at $6,500 has 6.79 K/9, 3.31 BB/9, a 2.05 K/BB ratio, and 0.93 HR/9 since 2019. And we’re supposed to spend $9,800 on Wright? Why?
Wright also has to face the Kia Tigers. And speaking of average:
Runs per game
The matchup doesn’t even give Wright a boost, whereas Park’s matchup does.
Park faces the SK Wyverns, who are slashing .239/.310/.355 and scoring 3.69 runs per game. Clearly, a better matchup.
Am I saying that we should lock in Park as our SP2? I don’t know. This was the original question that led to my argument against Wright, leading to another question: do we stack Kia? Then, do we stack SK? Do we cross Wright, Kia, and SK off of our lists?
I’m not there, yet.
For a single lineup, who gets eliminated?
I can already tell that I’ll be torn all day between my guy Jong-hoon Park, Chan-Heon Jeong, and Se-woong Park, looking at these numbers and price tags:
The matchups are comparable when we figure in that SK is performing beneath their potential. Playing five lineups, they can all be sprinkled in last, but in these 200-300-person tournaments, we shouldn’t be playing five lineups. For small tournaments like DK’s Power Alley and FD’s Grand Slam, I think really hard decisions need to be made.
Do I have a definitive argument for any one or two of three over the others? I’m not there, yet.
What the hell do we do with that Doosan-Hanwha game?
Chad Bell sucks, so we know we’re not playing him, but a worse lefty broke 15 DK points against these same Doosan Bears a couple of days ago, leading to the question: can we stack Doosan?
I don’t think we can stack Doosan, no matter what we think of Bell. They’re so lefty-driven without histories of conquering lefty-lefty matchups with much power. And for those prices, we need power. Also, Bell is bad, but not gas can bad.
And the glaring omission from my pitcher pool is Hui-kwan Yu. Sure, he gets to face Hanwha, but, damn, Hanwha gets to face him. Even if Hanwha is too incompetent to cut through Yu’s 4.29 FIP and even if Yu’s 4.29 is fine enough to hit the gas against Hanwha, Yu has struck out—wait for it!—3.51 hitters per nine innings since 2019. I didn’t stutter, people. That’s 3.51 K/9.
So, even if Hanwha is trash, we’re looking at a guy who struck out more than two hitters in only two of ten starts this season.
Can we tolerate that? I’m not there, yet.
— There is no question that Kiwoom is the stack of the day. How many other people feel that way? Yet another question some 15 hours before lock. I feel like Kiwoom gets overowned when they’re good-not-great and underowned when they should be the fear chalk. If that trend continues, we lock ‘em into everything.
— Aaron Brooks is fine. The problem is his price tag. $9k for against the NC Dinos is steep when we’ve seen him struggle to get through six from time to time.
— I don’t plan on more posts like this. I prefer being more polished with my takes, but those come later in the day, and we’re not there, yet. With other Fourth of July plans, I have no time to write this afternoon, so I gave you a look into my early process. Hope it was enjoyable. If you dig it, let me know on Twitter. If you hate it, fine, let me know on Twitter, I guess.