KBO DFS: The Argument Against Stacking the Doosan Bears
The Doosan Bears have been the team to stack, outside of the NC Dinos, through the first quarter of the KBO DFS season. They’re tied for second with 5.92 runs per game. Their 40 HRs are only three from second and their .809 OPS is only .001 from second.
The Bears face a pitcher in Woo-chan Cha, who is a LHP with around average strikeout-walk numbers since 2019—6.91 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9. He’s given up the long ball to a degree we could stack against—0.95 HR/9—but this is still just a mediocre pitcher.
Maybe one we could roster to leverage against the field when we see he’s up to 8.10 K/9. Then, again, he’s also upped the HR/9 to 1.35 with the league jumping from 0.7 to 1.0, so maybe not. Maybe, we just roster Doosan and call it a day.
Not so fast.
For the prices we have to pay, Doosan stinks against lefties.
If we had team platoon stats, we could look at them, but we can just look at individuals and do mental math. The math is easy, as we go down the batting order and look at their numbers against LHPs since 2019 next to their DK prices (There’s no discount on FD, either.).:
Kun-woo Park, RHB ($3,400) — Park has a nice price. He’s leading off, so more PAs and, therefore, more margin for error. His .331 wOBA and .142 ISO are fine for that price and probably the best in entire batting order. He could be rosterable in cash. but we really can’t stack him, as there’s no one with whom to stack him.
That’s right. Let’s go downhill, slowly.
Jose Miguel Fernandez, LHB ($5,800) — Fernandez is among the elite KBO hitters and he’s priced like it. Unfortunately, his numbers tell us he’s maybe a $3,500 slap hitter against lefties. A respectable .338 wOBA, but a—wait for it—.039 ISO.
Joo-hwan Choi, LHB ($2,100) — There we go. A super cheapy. One we can roster at 1B and 2B. We can pay that price for a .325 wOBA, but—again—the ISO. Only .113. There is just no power to be had here.
Jae-hwan Kim, LHB ($5,300) — Now we got some power. A .164 ISO is starting to look like it’s last call at the bar, if we’re lonely. A desperation move at over $5k because his wOBA is only .307 with a K rate of 21.8%.
Jae-ho Kim, RHB ($2,600) — Finally, another righty. And one we can use at SS. Maybe the bottom of the order is where it’s at. Nope. .297 wOBA, .056 ISO.
Se Hyuk Park, LHB ($2,900) — Six batters in and we’ve got four LHBs. Park’s numbers: .257 wOBA, .119 ISO. He’s a catcher, so using him as filler for a stack is fine, but we still don’t see a core around which to build.
Maybe, we can wraparound stack to Kun-woo and Fernandez. Fish for a couple of rallies.
Hae-seong Kook, RHB ($2,100) — Kook is actually the rare switch hitter, but we’ll just call him an effective RHB for this discussion. Either way, his .288 wOBA and 0.69 ISO is useless for an OF.
Soo-bin Jung, LHB ($2,500) — Oh, look, another lefty! We don’t even wanna punt with Jung, as he would take up a valuable OF spot. His wOBA is only .260 and his ISO a JMF-esque .040.
Ye-il So, RHB ($2,100) — There is no data on So, but imagine being a RHB hitting ninth in this mess.
Add to all of this that Jae-il Oh, Doosan’s biggest power threat, is on the IL, and it’s just unclear where to go. We’ve got five LHBs, including four of the top-six in the order. Only one of the four RHBs have a wOBA over .300 and only one of all nine have an ISO over .150. None over .165.
This is garbage.
— Chang-mo Koo is too cheap. Anything under $10,500 on DK and $30 on FD is a steal where we need to hit the lock button. He’s $9,400 on DK and—lol—$26 on FD. This is baseball where anything can happen, but against Hanwha, this is as close as we’re going to get all season to a sure thing.
— Knowing that Doosan is this bad against lefties, I was initially going to make an argument for Woo-chan Cha, but I can’t get past the HRs. The Ks are tempting, but the $8,300 price tag was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
— Cha’s name in Korea is Cha-woo Chan or 차우찬, which literally translates to “Chow Chan.” Think about it….
— On the other side of this Doosan game are the LG bats. LG faces Young-ha Lee, which literally translates into The Chalkmaker. Lee has 5.19 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, and 1.39 HR/9 since 2019. This is a bad pitcher. LG isn’t a must-play because the ownership of the stack could be in the 20s, after being in the 30s for the Thursday slate.
— Crowning Lee “The Chalkmaker” has Bum-soo Kim saying, “Hold my beer!” The only thing keeping LG in the low-20s should be NC facing this Bum (lol). Bum has 5.7 BB/9 and 1.33 HR/9 since 2019. That’s it. That’s the argument.
— KT’s ownership will be interesting. They face Se-woong Park, who has given up the second-most HR/9 this year at 1.54. But he’s only given up 0.85 since last season. NC and LG should be more owned, but I’m still fading. I just wonder if this is bad flyball luck.
— Drew Gagnon’s 10.04 K/9 is first in the KBO since 2019. His 2.01 BB/9 is tied for tenth. His 0.22 HR/9 is third. His 2.53 FIP is tied for first. This is an elite $9k pitcher on our hands. At only $7,800, we may have another autoplay at SP2 against Samsung. KBO K rate is in the 17.5% range. Samsung has struck out 18.4% of the time. Scoring five runs per game, they’re a bit of a below-average offense which should get embarrassed. My concern with Gagnon earlier in the season was his pitch counts taking him out of games. He’s finished at least 6.0 in four of five starts since. I would say that Gagnon has the same upside as Koo, if Koo didn’t have CGSO upside.
— David Buchanan is frustrating. I write him up once, actually touting him, and it worked out damn well. But I want to stack against his low-K, 1.21 HR/9 ass wherever I can find the power. If you read this thinking, if not Doosan, who? Kia. Stack Kia. I just named three teams which should produce more ownership. Stack Kia.