KBO DFS: The Argument for Stacking LG Twins
Of the four BvP matchups by handedness, none favor the pitcher more than lefty-lefty, so what do we do when a terrible LHP faces an LHB-heavy core stack? We stack against the pitcher.
LG is in the lowest-owned position they could be against a bad pitcher because the opposing pitcher is a lefty.
How bad is Jung-hyun Baek? Real bad.
Since 2019, Baek has only struck out 5.17 per nine innings, while giving up 3.05 walks and 1.11 HRs. This season, HRs are up in the KBO and his HR/9 has robustoed to 1.66. Of 51 qualified pitchers, he ranks fifth-worst in K/9, seventh-worst in HR/9, tenth-worst in K-BB% (5.5%), sixth-worst in FIP (4.97). and is tied for second in total HRs allowed (24) since last season. This all after the juiced ball era.
Baek throws his 86.4 mph fastball nearly 50% of the time and LHBs are scorching it for a .353 ISO this season after hitting .337 against it a year ago. For a guy who doesn’t regularly get strikeouts, we should be licking our chops to toss the power lefties out against him.
Kang-nam Yoo, C — Despite the lefty-lefty whateverism, we should still start with the right-handed Yoo. Small sample, but we’ve stanned hard for him in this space before and he didn’t disappoint because he’s #good. The pitcher he faced that day: Jung-hyun Baek.
Good enough to justify the $4,500 price tag on DK and laugh our asses off at his $10 price on FD.
In only 60 PAs versus LHPs since 2019, Yoo has 11 HRs and 11 doubles, slashing .364/.417/.656 with a .435 wOBA and a .292 ISO. Too early to tell if he’s truly a lefty masher and samples are too small to know if lefty mashers exist, Yoo is a good hitter with pop facing a terrible pitcher. Also, remember when I said that LHP-LHB was the most favorable to the pitcher? LHP-RHP is the least and Yoo might have taken over the spot of the best RHB on LG.
Roberto Ramos, 1B — Speaking of stanning hard, Ramos hasn’t disappointed this season. Sure, after hitting 13 HRs through June 5, he’s endured a back injury and hit none, but this is a get-right spot for him where he should go low-owned due to Baek’s handedness, coupled with the recent disappointment. Maybe the lowest owned we’ll see him for quite some time.
Ramos has a .220 ISO through his first 49 KBO PAs versus LHPs. This after a .217 ISO through 136 PAs against LHPs in Triple-A in 2019. If we ignore the lefty-lefty matchup for one player in tournaments on this slate, it’s Ramos.
Hyun-soo Kim, OF — Speaking of ignoring lefty-lefty matchups, Kim has hit .287 with 20 doubles against LHPs since 2019. Overall, he’s sported a .381 wOBA and .502 SLG over that span.
Eun-sung Chae, OF — Chae is free on DK. Only $3,100 for a RHB hitting .323 against LHPs since 2019. More of a reverse splits hitter who’s big power days are behind him in the juiced ball era, but some pop is still there. He’s hit five HRs this year. Hitting in the middle of the order, he’s a nice complimentary piece.
Keun-woo Jeong, 2B — Jeong isn’t any good, but he’s right-handed, playing a position where it’s impossible to find good spots for cheap, and hitting second in a lineup which should blast off against a bad pitcher. He’s 37-years-old, but has seven SBs through 130 PAs.
Ji-hwan Oh, SS — Speaking of steals at a position where it’s hard to find points for cheap, Oh has nine of them through 161 PAs this season.
Chun-Woong Lee, OF — And since we’re still on the topic of cheap steals, Lee has 26 since 2019. He’s a lefty with a sub-.300 wOBA against lefties, but whatever. He has 29 doubles since last season and is hitting leadoff for $3,200.
This stack isn’t overwhelming with power, but power is there to be had. If anything, it is overwhelming with speed. If these speedsters get on base twice, we could see them coast into double digits, while the power bats have limitless ceilings.
— Eric Jokisch has been great this year, Andy Means wrote today, adding that “ if we had more batted ball data, he’d rank near the top of the league in groundball rate.” Of the little data we have, we can see that Jokisch has a very high 1.77 GB:FB ratio.
— Doosan is tough. They’re the best play, but they’ll be heavily owned and facing a lefty. If we’re going that route, pivoting to LG makes the most sense. I also believe that people won’t want to play a full lineup of lefties versus lefties so the Doosan-LG pairing could be slightly contrarian way to play Doosan. That said, if we’re looking to be different with Doosan, going all the way and being different with SK may be the sharper route.
— Really difficult to not pair Jokisch with Raul Alcantara. It’s an expensive pairing, but LG lets it happen.