KBO DFS: The Argument for Stacking LG Twins Again
Yesterday, we examined the LG Twins as a team we should be stacking against a bad lefty, despite so many of the guys we normally like to play being LHBs. We don’t repeat our arguments so close to one another, but this one bears repeating right now.
For Saturday morning’s slate, the LG Twins are everything they were for Friday’s slate, but on steroids this time. Facing an even worse lefty, we re-trace our steps and land even more firmly on LG as the stack of the slate.
Kang-nam Yoo might still be a lefty masher. Handedness doesn’t matter much to Ramos’ power. Hyun-soo Kim and Eun-sung Chae’s situations further improve. Keon-woo Jeong, Ji-wan Oh, and Chun-woong Lee still have aggressive speed on the basepaths in even better spots to get on base.
Friday morning, LG smashed a very experienced bad lefty with some strikeout stuff. On Saturday, they face a 19-year-old rookie lefty with no Ks, a whole lot of walks, and who might have a home run problem
Yoon-dong Heo is that rookie lefty. The run prevention in his 3.60 ERA has disguised some serious control problems. He’s gone five innings in each of his four starts, but the walks are alarming. Four in his debut, one in his second start against these Twins, four in his third, and five in his more recent. And it’s not like we’re making an omelet with all of these cracked eggs. Only seven Ks (seven!!!) to go with those 13 walks for a minus-6.5 K-BB%. He’s also given up three dongs. Put it all together and that’s a 6.93 FIP.
I can live with walks if a guy has the stuff to eventually make guys chase. Heo doesn’t have that stuff.
First, he has a limited arsenal. He’s thrown his fastball 61.9% of the time and his slider 25.1% of the time. He’s basically a two-pitch pitcher, which is fine for a reliever, but dangerous for a starter, even when one of those two pitches are elite. Heo doesn’t have an elite pitch, which leads to the next point.
Second, Heo’s fastball velocity is low. If you’re gonna be a two-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on the fastball, you need some juice. Heo’s fastball only averages out at 84.8 mph. The slider is much slower, averaging 78.9 mph. We’re not talking about Aroldis Chapman here.
Third, if you don’t have the stuff, you have to have the nibble the corners of the zone to get by, and Heo is all over the place. That fastball on which he so heavily relies has missed the zone 51.8% of the time. The slider only hitting the zone 37.4% of the time is fine, but the fastball needs to hit the zone to induce chasing the slider. Because the fastball is missing the zone and the slider is too slow to deceive anyone, hitters have only swung at it 28.6% of the time.
Fourth, as we’ve illustrated with the low K’s, Heo is easy to hit when he does hit the zone. Hitters have made contact nearly 90% of the time against those two pitches from him.
The argument against Yoo is that he had a limited career for a reason until becoming a full-time starter in 2018, but looking at the numbers, those reasons have nothing to do with any question about how he handles lefties. He’s slashed .320/.372/.559 with 34 HRs in 613 PAs against LHPs since 2015. Like the term “lefty masher” or not, fade those numbers at your own risk.
The argument against Ramos versus lefties is that he has struck out 15 of 52 times this season against them. He has a .393 BACON with a .209 ISO against LHPs, though. Against a guy who can’t strike anyone out, those numbers are far more important than the raw slash line because we only care about what happens when he hits the ball.
The arguments against Kim and Chae is that the HRs aren’t there, but the doubles are and the RBI spots should be available for them. Chae is also dirt-cheap.
The arguments against Jeong and Oh is that they hit further down the order, but positional scarcity and speed take care of that.
The argument against Lee is that he just doesn’t produce lefty-lefty, carrying a wOBA under .300. But he also has speed. We want speed hitting in front of Ramos, Yoo, Kim, and Chae. Under $3,500, we can do a lot worse in OF.
That argument against this entire argument is that lefty-lefty is tough and the sample on Heo is irrelevant. To that, we go back to his control. A guy who can’t throw strikes can’t throw strikes. And a guy with no velocity only throwing two pitches is gonna get hammered when he does throw strikes.
— Doosan is the chalk, especially with people avoiding NC. It isn’t a mistake to play Doosan, but it’s a mistake to shift all NC shares that way. Hyun-jong Yang is a very good pitcher, but has given up a league-average 1.0 HR/9. And he’s a lefty. There’s nothing average about Eui-ji Yang, Jin-sung Kang, and Aaron Altherr against lefties. There is potential for a pounding at depressed ownership.
— Like Friday’s slate, spending over $8k on both pitcher slots might be the path on DK. Certainly in cash. Actually eyeballing Chris Flexen (because Hanwha) and Chan-guy Lim. They can both go for 25. LG makes this easy.
— SK with LG makes the Flexen-Lim simple.
— Won-tae Choi doesn’t have the Ks to make my team at that price tag, but he is a sinkerballer. That said, the HRs and flyballs are up with him, despite more pitches down in the zone and beneath it. I wonder if he’s getting launch angled.