KBO DFS: The Arguments for Fading NC Dinos and Doosan Bears
I lied. I’m not giving direct arguments for fading the NC Dinos or Doosan Bears because they’re both great plays. The problem is that the Bears in a better spot than last night when they were played by a third of the field and the Dinos are 4-0 in a strong spot themselves. The argument against playing the Dinos is that they should be massive chalk and we have four viable alternatives: (in alphabetical order) the Kia Tigers, LG Twins, Samsung Lions, SK Wyverns.
Kia Tigers vs. Tae-in Won
Won is bad, so we wanna play bats against him. The 20-year-old right-handed pitcher is coming off of a year with a bad 5.12 RA/9 and way below average home run (1.0 HR/9), strikeout (5.5 K/9), and walk (3.1 BB/9) rates. He threw a 12-pitch inning on Tuesday, so I wondered if he was an opener for tonight, but Andy Means noted that he threw 78 pitches in five IP in a preseason game. If I were starting Won, I would worry if he had a short leash and I think we can worry about that in stacking against him.
But all bad, young pitchers have short leashes. But all are long enough to get rocked for six in two IP.
Hyung-Woo Choi is the leading power threat on the club. He had 288 HRs between 2008 and 2018, but only 17 in his age-35 season. .897 OPS, which ranked eighth. Good to see him dong in game-two and hit safely in all four games this season.
Preston Tucker is the familiar American name, who finished 2019 15th in OPS (.860) and 12th in batting average (.311). He has no home run power, but there is deceptive doubles power; he finished sixth with 33 last season, which is all we need for RBI. Well, not all we need…
I don’t know where Chan-ho Park ranks among tablesetters in the KBO, but he sure does seem like he’s among the most fun. A free-swingin’, very aggressive base stealer. He’s a perfect tournament play you avoid in cash. Struck out 83 times last year, but stole 39 bases. No doubles power with only 15, but he’s leading off, and did I mention the steals?
Ji-Wan Na is a curious one. He only had six HRs in limited play in 2019. I don’t know why he only played 56 games, but he slugged over .500 in 2016-18. At 34, he is likely on the decline, but there is pedigree power there.
Every game has rain in the system, but some are lighter than others. This is my favorite to be the lightest, but it still a rainout risk.
LG Twins vs. Young-Gyu Kim
Kim is a 19-year-old left-hander, coming off of a 5.43 RA/9 and 1.704 WHIP season in 66.0 IP. 6.2 K/9, so maybe he was unlucky. Nope, he had a 5.01 FIP.
Eun-Sung Chae is the first name we go to, as the right-handed hitter hitting third in the order. His numbers are all very average, making me curious if he gets a power boost against lefties.
As for power against lefties, my guy, Roberto Ramos in sneakily in play. You can read my profile on him here. Something I excluded, waiting for this magic moment, is that in 2019, he slugged .562 with a .951 OPS versus left-handed pitching.
As for the other pieces of this stack, I’m workin’ on it…
Should rain early on, but let up in the second hour. Not sure how they roll with that.
Samsung Lions vs. Ki-Young Im
I mean, seriously. 6.56 RA/9 and 27 HRs allowed in his last 153.2 IP. If you wanna fade chalk, target guys like this. The bats don’t matter. Their projected 2-3-4 is Ja-Wook Koo ($12), Tyler Saladino ($14), and Won-Seok Lee ($10). Light rain in this one, so limit your exposure.
SK Wyverns vs Won-sam Jang
Jang is a trainwreck. He hasn’t had an ERA under 5.60 since 2014. That was the Obama Administration! He’s given up 15 HRs in his last 130 IP—a rate of 1.04 HR/9.
Again, throw the whole roster at this left-hander and see what sticks.
Do not—DO NOT—leave Jeong Choi and Jamie Romak out of your stacks. They are the elite power bats, ranking 4th and 11th in OPS in 2019. They tied each other for 29 HRs, trailing only ByungHo Park’s 33 for the league lead.
Soo-Kwang Noh is projected to leadoff and Dong-Min Han to hit second. We can flip a coin between the two.
The problem is the 86% chance of rain. Bummer.
Sorry for any typos. This was a quick musing.