Luck?

How lucky can someone get when it comes to DFS. Judging by who you speak with on this matter you get different views that can twist you like a pretzel. Its luck and it’s research. You read about different states saying that this sorta stuff we do is gambling because luck is involved while it gets argued in court that it takes true skill to rue the day. I believe it is 50-50 to be honest with you. Go to Fan Duel for example, you enter into a tournament and now are playing your one,two,three whatever number of teams against 15,000 and you feel confident just like everyone else entering the so called “winning lineup”. You start out like a house on fire in first place taking down $ 3,000 and by ends night you walk away with $ 5.00 if your lucky. HOW MUCH LUCK IS ACTUALLY INVOLVED IN THIS. Reading stats and information along with listening to the so called pros give their insight you pick a team you feel confident about again at least until you start falling down the rankings like an avalanche down a mountain. Joe Schmo over here takes a guy like Alejandro De Aza while you jump on Mike Trout. Trout is predicted to get a good chunk of change in terms of points especially with the guy he is facing, while De Aza whom I guarantee if you did a comparison on the streets say NYC and ask who both men are, most will know Trout while others will look at you with that sideways turn LIKE A DOG wondering who in the HELL is Alejandro De Aza. Getting back to it, I found this out the hard way when he hit two bombs against the Red Sox while a member of the Orioles. A guy I knew whom was also in the same tournament texts me saying “How does my De Aza play look now”. Sarcastic laughter is what comes from me next as I say dude you got lucky, you spent up for Kershaw as a pitcher and had next to no money left and he (De Aza) was all that was available and actually starting so you played him. Sorry for ranting it is something I tend to do a lot of. My point is this was luck IDC what anyone says about it being skill, no people skill was not involved here, Alejandro De Aza has hit exactly 3 home runs in 2014 as an Oriole and 45 his whole career as a Major Leaguer. De Aza is no world beater nor is he a guy you think is gonna hit a HR everytime he comes up. Yet on a night in Boston he crushes two and sends me plummeting down the rankings of the high and mighty making a few hundred dollars to making….yeah you guessed it $ 5 freaking bucks. I was pissed can’t lie still seems like I am a little bitter about it to this day and hey maybe I am but that is only because so many people tell me that DFS is all about skill and zero luck. I keep my answer at 50-50 and hope that one day all this knowledge I do have stored in my head along with all the stats and info I read will help me take down a GPP but until that point DFS is almost like gambling because skill is involved.

Would love to hear everybody else with their take on this matter and what they feel is luck and skill in DFS. Thanks for reading guys and Good Luck Grinding.

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Comments

  • ap28

    So true……….

  • xandamere

    It’s like poker. You can go all in with pocket aces and lose to a guy who called you with 27. It sucks when it happens, but you want that play to happen, because over the long term you’ll win far more often than not. DFS is basically the same way. Your job is to focus on your process of selecting good players at good prices in good positions. If you do so consistently, you won’t win every night, but over the long term you’ll win more than you lose.

    On any given day there’s a heavy amount of luck involved (especially in large tournaments). In the long term it’s almost all skill.

    If you want to learn more about things like picking Alejandro De Aza (or other seemingly random players) in large-field tournaments, go read up on game theory and antifragile.

  • Njsum1

    Seems like baseball carries the most luck out of any sport. Stud Hitters often disappoint in really good spots, whereas stud football players or stud basketball players usually deliver when they’re supposed to…not always but usually. The one thing you can usually count on in baseball is a stud pitcher in a good matchup…usually…..so while ur friend lucked into de aza he did start Kershaw which is a much more guaranteed source of points then trout. So he only started de aza cause cap constraints led him there. You went for upside in a hitter, he took the guaranteed points and this time he made out better than you. Won’t always happen like that but he made a play that will more often than not beat ur play. Kershaw + crappy hitter will normally yield more points than Trout + any pitcher not as good as Kershaw. However, ur play was a better gpp play…just didn’t work out for you….variance strikes again

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