Making a Millionaire: Week 2
Every week of the NFL season, DFS players are given an opportunity to become a millionaire. This article is meant to expose some potentially great plays that are risky but could payoff big time. These are low-owned GPP players who could vault your entries to the top of the leaderboards this week. When you are fine with losing, you are ready to read this article because you are willing to take the chance necessary to win a GPP.
Well, week 1 was fun. I almost made myself a millionaire. I cashed out for 6th place in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament and it was a long sweat with the Detroit/Arizona game inexplicably going into overtime (thanks, Matt Patricia). Full results can be found here. There’s little old larejo123 sitting pretty in 6th place.
If you read my Week 1 article you would see that two of the three players I wrote up were included in this lineup. Congrats to TopCorner though, I came oh so close.
I typically play 3-5 lineups each week in this tournament. I entered 3 times into this past week’s Milly Maker. As mentioned before, I don’t write this article for any player who is mass-multi entry on these GPP’s but rather for the player like me, who does this for fun as a hobby. If I’m doing this right, this write-up can help you identify the low-owned, high-upside players who more than likely will not win you a tournament. However, for the 10-15% chance when these plays hit, I want all of us to be on them. We don’t want to simply cash. We want to win. Knock if you’re with me.
Roster breakdown really quick…this team is a game stack of the Colts @ Chargers. I felt like Brissett was so cheap and the late start would lead to reduced ownership on that game. I also was confident in the game going over its projected Vegas total. And Jacoby Brissett, bless his heart he played his tail off, was so cheap it allowed a great roster construction. For me it’s always a great feeling to go ‘full’ game stack, and round it out with a top RB or WR who should be a sure thing (e.g. McCaffrey, Christian).
The key point in the roster above however is not to boast. It’s to call out that T.Y. Hilton and Sammy Watkins are both in this lineup. T.Y. as part of a game stack, and Slammin’ Sammy as a one-off. The 49ers D rounded this out and that was a simple leverage play. Did it make sense Jameis Winston was projecting to be the highest owned QB? That was how we got some serious leverage on the field.
Sammy Watkins is a call I hope to get right again but safe to say we nailed all three last week. Let’s do it again…
Week 2 – Main Slate
Will Fuller V vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,300 DK) Projected Points 12.69 / Ownership 3.26%
If there’s a call this week that looks and feels like Sammy Watkins last week, it’s Will Fuller. First of all, let’s consider this is the same exact matchup Watkins had. WR2 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. Second, let’s consider the fact #2 Cornerback A.J. Bouye is out this week for JAX. We have a similar situation from last week when CB Jalen Ramsey will have one task: smother DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins can win this matchup, but to me, this is screaming 1 on 1 coverage for Will Fuller.
A few other factors are working for Fuller this week.
- His price has not adjusted from Week 1 (it’s the same even though he looks fully healthy)
- He is coming off a 3 target, 2 catch game on Monday night vs. the Saints
Ownership will be low. The ceiling will be high. I’d like to be on the right side of Will Fuller V’s box scores when all we see are heels and elbows on Sunday. Nobody can cover this guy.
Forecast: 5 receptions for 111 yards, TD
D.K. Metcalf at Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,300 DK) Projected Points 11.54 / Ownership 4.2%
Let’s all agree on one thing: D.K. looked much better than advertised last week against the Bengals. This dude can ball. Everyone entered last week thinking Seattle’s WR corps were Tyler Lockett and everybody else. They left thinking, Tyler Lockett is still good but D.K. Metcalf could be way better (or maybe I just thought that?). Lockett was shut down as the Bengals smartly double teamed him most of the game. This left Metcalf to run 1 on 1 with Bengals corners. 4 catches on 6 targets for 89 yards and an aDOT of nearly 15?! YLTSI.
Not to mention he should be way less “end zone fluky” (came up with that just right now) than Tyler Lockett. Lockett continues his unsustainable path to the right side of touchdown variance but at some point the law of averages will win out. When this happens, a Seahawks pass-catcher will benefit. Could it be D.K.? Metcalf could benefit. And I think that starts this week at Pittsburgh.
Last Sunday night, Phillip Dorsett and Josh Gordon dusted the Steelers secondary all evening. Metcalf is a better athlete than both of these guys. All I am saying here is play the Seattle #1 WR before everyone else knows he is the #1 WR. Bonus I failed to mention: Russell Wilson should be throwing a lot more this week (my guess is 30 pass attempts) vs. the Steelers after last week’s matchup with Cincy (20). If 3 or 4 of those attempts go to D.K., he’s looking at 10 targets.
Double bonus…look at D.K.’s route tree from week 1. He may not be at the point where he actually can change direction mid-stride but he’s not just running 9-Routes. Those CB’s better have good hips.
Forecast: 6 catches for 85 yards, TD, 1 carry for 25 yards
Vernon Davis vs. Dallas Cowboys ($3,200 DK) Projected Points 9.9 / Ownership 0.60%
The first point on TE vs. Cowboys should be the box score of Evan Engram from Week 1: 14 targets, 11 catches for 116 yards and a TD. It should be well-known by now that the Cowboys play a Tampa 2 defense. Two deep safeties at all times places a hard emphasis on the Linebackers to be ‘rangy’ and cover the middle of the field. Tight ends and WR’s with low aDOTs will win this matchup.
Vernon Davis is obviously not Evan Engram. However, he is only $3,200 and he’s a great GPP pivot off of T.J. Hockenson ($3,000), in my opinion. He will run a route on 70%+ of Case Keenum drop-backs and while the public will play Terry McLaurin or Chris Thompson this week (if they play Redskins, which it doesn’t look like most will), then give me the even lesser owned Vernon Davis. And for those who don’t believe this guy can still get that YAC, did you see his Week 1 touchdown? Google it.
Forecast: 9 catches for 92 yards