MLB 8/27: Picking Pitchers Using Stats
This week I wanted to share my insight on picking pitchers. I have been pretty good in picking the right pitchers all week. Yesterday I took King Felix, Chris Sale, and David Phelps. Now looking at Phelps game log you would say Phelps had a terrible game, but I disagree. In 3 inning he didn’t give up a hit walked 2 and struck out 5. The problem he had in the 4th was with one out he walked a batter and hit the #7 batter and those extra out prolonged the inning where he grooved a ball down the middle to the #8 batter and to make matters worse his error allowed another run to score. I will still take phelps vs San Diego at home if this matchup came again.
I want to try something different. Instead of putting every pitcher on the evening slate. I will put my favorite mid tier pitchers and my favorite ace pitchers. Ill still be using Last 7 starts for pitchers but including Last 2 weeks for the teams that they will be facing. So Let’s Get To It.
Mid Tier Pitchers
Anthony Desclafani is a good pitcher. His stats won’t wow you but he gets the job done. I do not understand how he is an underdog (CIN , and WOBA (.169 ISO, 103 WRC+, .333 WOBA). But what makes him a great gpp play is the fact that he dominates RHB. He has only given up 1 homer vs a righty and they are hitting .185 against him. The Diamondbacks have 7 RHB in the Lineup today and their only lefties are Michael Bourn and Jake Lamb (OOOOH IM SHIVERING) Low owned sneaky GPP play.
Jameson Taillon has been amazing since joining the rotation. In his last 7 starts he is 1-2 (no run support) with a 2.35 ERA 0.91 WHIP 39Ks 5BBs in 46 innings (7.6 K/9, 0.98 BB/9). Milwaukee’s offense has lost the power that it was known for the last 5-10 years and have become more of a get on base and steal while swinging for the fences type of team. They have the best walk rate in baseball the last 2 weeks and are top 5 in steals as well (12.2%). Taillon throws strikes and is facing a team that is 4th in K% rate over the last two weeks (24%). Besides the walks their is nothing really scary about Milwauke’s offense WOBA and WRC+ are both below average in the last two weeks (.318 WOBA, 96 WRC+). He is a really popular SP2 on 2 pitcher sites and if you are fading all aces he is a must have. Cash and GPP play.
Michael Fulmer had a bad start last time around vs the best offensive team in baseball the Red Sox. Including the Red Sox game his Last 7 starts 1-2 3.31 ERA 1.00 WHIP 32 Ks i n 6 walks in 49 innings (5.88 K/9, 1.10 BB/9) Even with the Red Sox start he has averaged 7 innings in his last 7 starts. He is also pitching on 7 days rest, facing a dreadful Angels team. Im sorry but the Angels 5-9 are slap hitters, which is why they are 28th in ISO, 27th in WRC, 27th in WRC+, and 27th in WOBA the last two weeks (.132 ISO, 46 WRC, 88 WRC+, .296 WOBA). The stat that I always here with the Angels is that they don’t strike out vs RHP (15.8%), but I call bullshit. In the last two weeks their K% is 18th in the league (19.6% K rate) so although I don’t see a 10 K performance, I see a definite Win especially since he is a huge favorite (DET -230). Cash and low owned GPP play
Dallas Keuchel has been average this year, although after the All Star Break we are seeing the old Keuchel back. In his last 7 games he is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA 1.00 WHIP 41 Ks 12 BBs in 48 innings. In July, Tampa Bay was the best hitting team vs lefties. A TB stack vs lefties was a must in July but over the last 30 days, LHPs have a 2.33 ERA vs TB. He is a better home pitcher (3-5 3.70 ERA 1.08 WHIP with 63Ks 15BB in 73 inning, 7.77 K/9, 1.85 BB/9) and in his last 3 starts he has 21 strikeouts in 22 innings. This is a great play that I feel will be underowned in GPPs. Good cash play as well.
Jose Quintana finally got to 10 wins. This guy in his career has been amazing but gets no run support. He is an amazing pitcher at home and on the road. At Home he is 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA 0.91 WHIP 60 Ks 8 BBs in 69 IP (7.83 K/9, 1.04 BB/9). In his last 7 starts he is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA 1.13 WHIP 37 Ks 10 BBs in 47 IP (7.09 K/9, 1.91 BB/9). The Mariners just struck out 14 times vs Sale and won because the White Sox offense is offensive. He is a favorite vs Miranda ( CWS -145) and he will be low owned in Cash and GPPs. He isn’t a must own in either but I believe he will score high enough to satisfy you.
Carlos Carrasco has been as efficient as any pitcher in baseball this month. He hasn’t walked a batter in his last 3 starts (28 Ks 0 BBs) and he is a great road pitcher 6-3 1.74 ERA 72 Ks 11 BBs in 67.1 IP (9.62 K/9, 1.47 BB/9). I will not include his last seven starts because he has been mediocre in terms of Hits Allowed and Earned Runs. And on sites like Fanduel and Fantasy Aces Hits Allowed don’‘t really sting, as long as the run doesn’t score. He is facing a struggling Texas team that has been below average in almost every offensive stat the last two weeks. 20th in K%, 25th in ISO, 29th in WRC, WRC+ and WOBA (19.4% K rate, .145 ISO, 40 WRC, 73 WRC+, .287 WOBA). Carrasco is a favorite going against a struggling Griffin (CLE -135) and is an excellent pivot off of Syndergaard. Cash and GPP play
Noah Syndergaard. The funny thing is in his Last 7 starts, out of the seven pitchers I have mentioned he is tops with walks (14), has pitched the fewest innings pitched (42.1 IP) and the highest WHIP (1.37). But he is a stud when he is on and an even better stud facing a below average team like the Phillies. He has 49 strikeouts and 14 walks in his last 7 starts (10.42 K/9 , 2.98 BB/9) and it is important to mention that because he is facing a team that in the last two weeks are 21st in BB % rate and 8th in K % rate over the last two weeks (7.4% BB rate, 23% K rate). They are also below average in WRC, WRC+, and WOBA over the last two weeks (49 WRC, 96 WRC+, .318 WOBA). At home he is a monster, 5-4 2.60 ERA 1.12 WHIP 101 Ks 12 BBs in 79.2 IP ( 11.41 K/9, 1.36 BB/9). He is the top overall pitcher will be the highest owned in cash and GPP so fade at your own risk.
Good Luck – Paul