MLB 9/7: Picking Pitchers Using Recent Stats

“I don’t know”, “I can’t”, “WHY”, “BRUHHH”, just some of the things I thought since September started about the pitching slate. Horrific. This is the time of year where we need to be smart in picking pitchers. Picking pitchers vs teams in the playoff hunt will have to be selective, as playoff teams have a lot to fight for. The two worse teams in baseball Minnesota and Atlanta have been a top 5 offense the last two weeks. Teams with a foot in the playoff are limiting pitchers, pitchers who have been terrible all year are pitching like All Stars, evening slates have had few good plays, and we are seeing AAA pitchers making starts. Well let’s get to it. I have three good mid tier plays and three aces who I believe will pitch well.

Mid Tier
Robbie Ray has been an ok strikeout pitcher this year. He is facing a Dodgers team that is on a roll snatching the NL West from the Giants. Why is he on the list, its because the Dodgers are one of the worse teams vs LHP on the year (even worse than the Orioles). Ray in his last 7 starts is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 40 IP 51 Ks 13 BBs 1.30 WHIP. He has pitched twice vs the Dodgers and dominated them on both occasions (13.1 IP 2 ER 13Ks). The Dodgers are one of the worse teams vs LHP they are 29th in WRC, WRC+, ad WOBA (125 WRC, 77 WRC+, .282 WOBA). HE is a great GPP play.

Marcus Stroman what else can I say. For all the talk about the Blue Jays offense, their pitching is why they have a chance at a title. He has been very good for the Blue Jays although he can be inconsistent. In his last two starts he has gone 12 innings while giving up 8 ER but before that he went 5 straight starts giving up 3 ERs and less. HE is facing a Yankee team in the hunt and playing well even with Gary Sanchez coming down to earth. Stroman threw 8 IP 2 ERs 3 Ks vs the Yankees in April but this is a different Yankee team that is younger and more energetic. His strikeouts have been up and down his last 7 starts, from as low as 3 in his last start to as high as 13 vs Houston.

Jeremy Hellickson. You know the slate is bad when you have to recommend Jeremy Hellickson. He gives up homers the same way Hillary Clinton deletes emails, in bunches. The only reason why I am recommending him is because he is facing the Marlins. In two starts vs MIA he has gone 14 IP 3 ERs 1 walk and 12 Ks. The Marlins have been absolutely terrible since the injury to Stanton. In his last 7 starts Hellickson is 3-1 with a 4.02 ERA 40.1 IP 31 Ks 12 BBs and a 1.24 WHIP. IF Adam Morgan can shut down the Marlins then Hellickson could pitch like Dwight Gooden vs them. In the last two weeks the Marlins have been 26th in WRC, WRC+, and WOBA (42 WRC, 67 WRC+, and .274 WOBA) I can’t believe Im doing it but I will recommend Hellickson in Cash and GPPs are a contrarian play.

Aces
Danny Duffy has been a revelation for the hot Royals. In his last 7 starts he is 5-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 48.2 IP 47 Ks 10 BBs and a 1.07 WHIP. 7 of the 16 ERs that he has given up in his last 7 starts was versus the Red Sox at Fenway so his numbers would be even better if we remove that start. He is facing a hot Minnesota (Dozier) team that has been on a tear offensively. He is favored and facing a team that has given up 10 or more runs a game like its nothing. In his only start vs Minnesota he limited damage (6.2 IP 8 Hits Allowed 1 ER 2 BBs and 4 Ks) but this Minnesota team has been a top 5 offense last two weeks. He will be popular in cash and GPPs but I will fade him.

Carlos Carrasco has led the Indians three headed monster with Kluber and Salazar. He has been up and down in his last 7 starts 3-3 4.33 ERA 43.2 IP 57 Ks and 6 BBs. He has strikeout upside ad he does not walk anyone a perfect combination when facing the boom or bust Astros. He has 56 Ks and 4 BBs in 40 IP in his last 6 starts (12.6 K/9. 0.9 BB/9). The Astros have been average offensively in the last two weeks but they still Strikeout a lot (25.1% K % rate). He is just like Kluber yesterday a Boom or Bust Play. GPP special Cash meh.

David Price has finally looked like the David Price we know. He is facing one of the worse offensive teams in baseball the last two weeks. 28th in WRC, WRC+, WOBA and first in strikeout rate (31 WRC, 64 WRC+, .264 WOBA and 29.5% K% rate). He is 5-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 47 IP 42 Ks 13 BBs 1.09 WHIP. THere is no reason to even talk you into playing him. On this terrible pitching slate he should be over 50% in GPPs and 70-80% in Cash Games. He is a must play vs a team that has looked like they have given up since the trade deadline.

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