MLB Data Detective - Best Player Values (July 19)
As a professional software developer with 15+ years of experience working with data in the finance industry, my passion is using data analysis to gain a competitive advantage. I developed a software application that generates custom stats and player projections from play-by-play logs of every MLB game in recent history, and I will use this blog to share my DFS-related findings as I explore this data.
We have a 14-game main slate today on FanDuel and DraftKings. The early weather forecast looks pretty scary for several games, so be sure to keep an eye on the MLB weather page for updates.
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How did my previous picks do?
To evaluate how my previous stack picks did, I use the cash line score in the large GPP that I entered that day as my target. For yesterday’s main slate the FD cash line was 163.7, which is equivalent to 4.68x value (i.e. FPTS / salary).
Let’s see how my picks did:
| Stack | Players | Total Salary | Total FPTS | Total Value | Verdict? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers hitters (FD, DK) | Pederson, Muncy, Freese, Seager | $12,500 | 49.4 | 3.95x | Failure |
| Boston Red Sox hitters (FD, DK) | Betts, Benintendi, Chavis, Bradley | $13,800 | 30.4 | 2.2x | Failure |
It wasn’t a good day as both of my stacks failed to beat the GPP cash line value. The Red Sox scrapped together 5 runs but didn’t have the big offensive night that I envisioned. My Dodgers stack came close and delivered solid value, but the goose egg from Pederson really hurt.
This 0-for-2 day brings my overall season record for stack recommendations to 95-82, a 54% success rate. For comparison, the expected success rate of an average stack is approximately 20% (since I’m using the cash line from large GPPs as my success criteria).
Now let’s move onto today’s games…
Which pitching matchups should we target?
Let’s first take a look at how the probable starting pitchers rank in terms of FPTS given up to hitters per plate appearance (over the past 3 seasons):
| FPTS / PA given up (FanDuel) | FPTS / PA given up (DraftKings) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | Opponent | vs All | vs Lefties | vs Switch | vs Righties | vs All | vs Lefties | vs Switch | vs Righties |
| Taylor Clarke (ARI) | MIL | 3.1 (192 PA) | 3 (104 PA) | 3 (8 PA) | 3.1 (80 PA) | 2.3 (192 PA) | 2.2 (104 PA) | 2.2 (8 PA) | 2.4 (80 PA) |
| Jordan Zimmermann (DET) | TOR | 2.8 (1510 PA) | 2.7 (536 PA) | 2.9 (232 PA) | 2.8 (742 PA) | 2.1 (1510 PA) | 2.1 (536 PA) | 2.2 (232 PA) | 2.2 (742 PA) |
| Jordan Lyles (PIT) | PHI | 2.7 (1021 PA) | 2.9 (348 PA) | 2.8 (104 PA) | 2.6 (569 PA) | 2 (1021 PA) | 2.2 (348 PA) | 2.2 (104 PA) | 2 (569 PA) |
| Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) | TB | 2.5 (1471 PA) | 2.9 (469 PA) | 2 (282 PA) | 2.3 (720 PA) | 1.9 (1471 PA) | 2.3 (469 PA) | 1.6 (282 PA) | 1.8 (720 PA) |
| Kyle Freeland (COL) | NYY | 2.4 (1825 PA) | 2 (383 PA) | 2.1 (228 PA) | 2.6 (1214 PA) | 1.9 (1825 PA) | 1.6 (383 PA) | 1.6 (228 PA) | 2 (1214 PA) |
| Tyler Mahle (CIN) | STL | 2.4 (1014 PA) | 2.8 (364 PA) | 3.1 (128 PA) | 2 (522 PA) | 1.9 (1014 PA) | 2.1 (364 PA) | 2.4 (128 PA) | 1.5 (522 PA) |
| Tyler Beede (SF) | NYM | 2.4 (274 PA) | 2.6 (98 PA) | 2.2 (29 PA) | 2.3 (147 PA) | 1.8 (274 PA) | 2 (98 PA) | 1.5 (29 PA) | 1.8 (147 PA) |
| Jake Arrieta (PHI) | PIT | 2.4 (1923 PA) | 2.8 (674 PA) | 2.2 (188 PA) | 2.2 (1061 PA) | 1.8 (1923 PA) | 2.1 (674 PA) | 1.7 (188 PA) | 1.7 (1061 PA) |
| Mike Leake (SEA) | LAA | 2.4 (2060 PA) | 2.4 (737 PA) | 2.3 (278 PA) | 2.4 (1045 PA) | 1.8 (2060 PA) | 1.8 (737 PA) | 1.8 (278 PA) | 1.9 (1045 PA) |
| Julio Teheran (ATL) | WAS | 2.3 (1999 PA) | 2.3 (773 PA) | 2.4 (255 PA) | 2.2 (971 PA) | 1.7 (1999 PA) | 1.7 (773 PA) | 1.8 (255 PA) | 1.7 (971 PA) |
| Mike Montgomery (KC) | CLE | 2.2 (1197 PA) | 2.5 (339 PA) | 2.1 (146 PA) | 2.1 (712 PA) | 1.7 (1197 PA) | 1.9 (339 PA) | 1.6 (146 PA) | 1.6 (712 PA) |
| Jhoulys Chacin (MIL) | ARI | 2.2 (1932 PA) | 2.2 (735 PA) | 2.3 (211 PA) | 2.1 (986 PA) | 1.7 (1932 PA) | 1.7 (735 PA) | 1.8 (211 PA) | 1.6 (986 PA) |
| J.A. Happ (NYY) | COL | 2.1 (1757 PA) | 1.9 (361 PA) | 1.5 (248 PA) | 2.4 (1148 PA) | 1.7 (1757 PA) | 1.5 (361 PA) | 1.2 (248 PA) | 1.8 (1148 PA) |
| Jake Odorizzi (MIN) | OAK | 2.1 (1694 PA) | 2.6 (516 PA) | 2.1 (237 PA) | 1.8 (941 PA) | 1.6 (1694 PA) | 2 (516 PA) | 1.6 (237 PA) | 1.4 (941 PA) |
| Jaime Barria (LAA) | SEA | 2.1 (665 PA) | 1.4 (246 PA) | 2.2 (75 PA) | 2.6 (344 PA) | 1.6 (665 PA) | 1.1 (246 PA) | 1.7 (75 PA) | 2 (344 PA) |
| Adam Wainwright (STL) | CIN | 2.1 (1129 PA) | 2.4 (406 PA) | 1.8 (134 PA) | 1.9 (589 PA) | 1.6 (1129 PA) | 1.9 (406 PA) | 1.4 (134 PA) | 1.5 (589 PA) |
| Marcus Stroman (TOR) | DET | 2.1 (1745 PA) | 2.1 (619 PA) | 2 (234 PA) | 2 (892 PA) | 1.6 (1745 PA) | 1.6 (619 PA) | 1.6 (234 PA) | 1.6 (892 PA) |
| Chris Bassitt (OAK) | MIN | 2 (562 PA) | 2.4 (211 PA) | 2.1 (82 PA) | 1.7 (269 PA) | 1.6 (562 PA) | 1.8 (211 PA) | 1.6 (82 PA) | 1.4 (269 PA) |
| John Means (BAL) | BOS | 2 (378 PA) | 1.8 (93 PA) | 1.6 (38 PA) | 2.1 (247 PA) | 1.6 (378 PA) | 1.4 (93 PA) | 1.2 (38 PA) | 1.6 (247 PA) |
| Shane Bieber (CLE) | KC | 2 (961 PA) | 1.9 (333 PA) | 2.3 (147 PA) | 2 (481 PA) | 1.6 (961 PA) | 1.4 (333 PA) | 1.8 (147 PA) | 1.6 (481 PA) |
| Zac Gallen (MIA) | LAD | 2 (76 PA) | 2.2 (31 PA) | N/A (0 PA) | 1.8 (45 PA) | 1.5 (76 PA) | 1.6 (31 PA) | N/A (0 PA) | 1.5 (45 PA) |
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | ATL | 1.9 (2110 PA) | 1.8 (444 PA) | 1.7 (231 PA) | 2 (1435 PA) | 1.5 (2110 PA) | 1.4 (444 PA) | 1.4 (231 PA) | 1.6 (1435 PA) |
| David Price (BOS) | BAL | 1.9 (1403 PA) | 1.6 (246 PA) | 1.4 (213 PA) | 2.2 (944 PA) | 1.5 (1403 PA) | 1.2 (246 PA) | 1.2 (213 PA) | 1.6 (944 PA) |
| Mike Minor (TEX) | HOU | 1.9 (1442 PA) | 1.8 (322 PA) | 1.7 (181 PA) | 2 (939 PA) | 1.5 (1442 PA) | 1.4 (322 PA) | 1.4 (181 PA) | 1.5 (939 PA) |
| Justin Verlander (HOU) | TEX | 1.9 (2190 PA) | 1.8 (787 PA) | 1.9 (260 PA) | 1.9 (1143 PA) | 1.4 (2190 PA) | 1.4 (787 PA) | 1.4 (260 PA) | 1.5 (1143 PA) |
| Jacob deGrom (NYM) | SF | 1.8 (2135 PA) | 2 (776 PA) | 1.3 (248 PA) | 1.9 (1111 PA) | 1.4 (2135 PA) | 1.5 (776 PA) | 1.1 (248 PA) | 1.5 (1111 PA) |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) | MIA | 1.7 (1312 PA) | 1.7 (345 PA) | 1.4 (137 PA) | 1.7 (830 PA) | 1.3 (1312 PA) | 1.3 (345 PA) | 1.1 (137 PA) | 1.4 (830 PA) |
| Brendan McKay (TB) | CWS | 1.2 (58 PA) | 1.5 (13 PA) | 1.8 (10 PA) | 0.9 (35 PA) | 1 (58 PA) | 1.1 (13 PA) | 1.7 (10 PA) | 0.7 (35 PA) |
Here are the most hitter-friendly platoon splits by FPTS given up per plate appearance to hitters (minimum 100 plate appearances):
| Pitcher | Opponent | Against hitters who bat… | FPTS/PA given up (FD) | FPTS/PA given up (DK) | # Plate appearances against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle (CIN) | STL | Switch-hitter | 3.1 | 2.4 | 128 |
| Taylor Clarke (ARI) | MIL | Left-handed | 3 | 2.2 | 104 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) | TB | Left-handed | 2.9 | 2.3 | 469 |
| Jordan Lyles (PIT) | PHI | Left-handed | 2.9 | 2.2 | 348 |
| Jordan Zimmermann (DET) | TOR | Switch-hitter | 2.9 | 2.2 | 232 |
| Tyler Mahle (CIN) | STL | Left-handed | 2.8 | 2.1 | 364 |
| Jordan Zimmermann (DET) | TOR | Right-handed | 2.8 | 2.2 | 742 |
| Jordan Lyles (PIT) | PHI | Switch-hitter | 2.8 | 2.2 | 104 |
| Jake Arrieta (PHI) | PIT | Left-handed | 2.8 | 2.1 | 674 |
| Jordan Zimmermann (DET) | TOR | Left-handed | 2.7 | 2.1 | 536 |
| Kyle Freeland (COL) | NYY | Right-handed | 2.6 | 2 | 1214 |
| Jaime Barria (LAA) | SEA | Right-handed | 2.6 | 2 | 344 |
| Jake Odorizzi (MIN) | OAK | Left-handed | 2.6 | 2 | 516 |
| Jordan Lyles (PIT) | PHI | Right-handed | 2.6 | 2 | 569 |
My App’s Top-Value Hitter Stacks (FanDuel)
MIL hitters vs Taylor Clarke (ARI) - Score: 10.04, Value: 3.58 (FD): 2) Christian Yelich (L) - 14.77 proj FPTS & 3.01 value on FD ($4900) 3) Yasmani Grandal (S) - 12.79 proj FPTS & 4 value on FD ($3200) 5) Ryan Braun (R) - 11.48 proj FPTS & 3.7 value on FD ($3100) 6) Eric Thames (L) - 11.93 proj FPTS & 4.26 value on FD ($2800) 7) Keston Hiura (R) - 12.79 proj FPTS & 3.37 value on FD ($3800)STL hitters vs Tyler Mahle (CIN) - Score: 10.01, Value: 4.06 (FD): 1) Tommy Edman (S) - 13.11 proj FPTS & 4.85 value on FD ($2700) 2) Jose Martinez (R) - 10.32 proj FPTS & 3.97 value on FD ($2600) 3) Paul Goldschmidt (R) - 11.46 proj FPTS & 3.1 value on FD ($3700) 4) Tyler O'Neill (R) - 12.49 proj FPTS & 4.46 value on FD ($2800) 5) Dexter Fowler (S) - 11.47 proj FPTS & 4.25 value on FD ($2700)LAD hitters vs Zac Gallen (MIA) - Score: 9.99, Value: 3.58 (FD): 1) Joc Pederson (L) - 12.92 proj FPTS & 4.31 value on FD ($3000) 2) Alex Verdugo (L) - 11.72 proj FPTS & 4.04 value on FD ($2900) 4) Cody Bellinger (L) - 14.11 proj FPTS & 3 value on FD ($4700) 5) Max Muncy (L) - 13.55 proj FPTS & 3.39 value on FD ($4000) 7) Corey Seager (L) - 10.99 proj FPTS & 3.54 value on FD ($3100)TB hitters vs Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) - Score: 9.86, Value: 3.64 (FD): 1) Austin Meadows (L) - 13 proj FPTS & 3.51 value on FD ($3700) 2) Tommy Pham (R) - 12.54 proj FPTS & 3.22 value on FD ($3900) 3) Nate Lowe (L) - 13.85 proj FPTS & 4.2 value on FD ($3300) 5) Kevin Kiermaier (L) - 11.39 proj FPTS & 3.93 value on FD ($2900) 6) Michael Brosseau (R) - 11.16 proj FPTS & 3.49 value on FD ($3200)WAS hitters vs Julio Teheran (ATL) - Score: 9.77, Value: 3.47 (FD): 1) Trea Turner (R) - 12.92 proj FPTS & 3.23 value on FD ($4000) 2) Adam Eaton (L) - 11.76 proj FPTS & 4.06 value on FD ($2900) 3) Anthony Rendon (R) - 12.86 proj FPTS & 3.06 value on FD ($4200) 4) Juan Soto (L) - 13.43 proj FPTS & 3.28 value on FD ($4100) 5) Ryan Zimmerman (R) - 11.22 proj FPTS & 4.15 value on FD ($2700)
My App’s Top-Value Hitter Stacks (DraftKings)
TB hitters vs Reynaldo Lopez (CWS) - Score: 7.03, Value: 2.25 (DK): 1) Austin Meadows (L) - 10.08 proj FPTS & 2.19 value on DK ($4600) 2) Tommy Pham (R) - 9.62 proj FPTS & 2.19 value on DK ($4400) 3) Nate Lowe (L) - 10.6 proj FPTS & 2.52 value on DK ($4200) 5) Kevin Kiermaier (L) - 8.85 proj FPTS & 2.16 value on DK ($4100) 6) Michael Brosseau (R) - 8.63 proj FPTS & 2.21 value on DK ($3900)WAS hitters vs Julio Teheran (ATL) - Score: 7.03, Value: 2.24 (DK): 1) Trea Turner (R) - 10.08 proj FPTS & 2.14 value on DK ($4700) 2) Adam Eaton (L) - 9.11 proj FPTS & 2.46 value on DK ($3700) 3) Anthony Rendon (R) - 9.73 proj FPTS & 1.99 value on DK ($4900) 4) Juan Soto (L) - 10.12 proj FPTS & 2.2 value on DK ($4600) 5) Ryan Zimmerman (R) - 8.53 proj FPTS & 2.58 value on DK ($3300)LAD hitters vs Zac Gallen (MIA) - Score: 6.97, Value: 2.16 (DK): 1) Joc Pederson (L) - 9.72 proj FPTS & 2.31 value on DK ($4200) 2) Alex Verdugo (L) - 9 proj FPTS & 2.25 value on DK ($4000) 4) Cody Bellinger (L) - 10.66 proj FPTS & 1.9 value on DK ($5600) 5) Max Muncy (L) - 10.07 proj FPTS & 2.19 value on DK ($4600) 6) A.J. Pollock (R) - 8.49 proj FPTS & 2.23 value on DK ($3800)CIN hitters vs Adam Wainwright (STL) - Score: 6.94, Value: 2.4 (DK): 1) Jesse Winker (L) - 9.14 proj FPTS & 2.54 value on DK ($3600) 2) Joey Votto (L) - 9.08 proj FPTS & 2.67 value on DK ($3400) 3) Eugenio Suarez (R) - 8.57 proj FPTS & 2.09 value on DK ($4100) 4) Yasiel Puig (R) - 9.24 proj FPTS & 2.1 value on DK ($4400) 5) Scooter Gennett (L) - 9.09 proj FPTS & 2.75 value on DK ($3300)MIL hitters vs Taylor Clarke (ARI) - Score: 6.88, Value: 2.01 (DK): 1) Lorenzo Cain (R) - 8.69 proj FPTS & 2.07 value on DK ($4200) 2) Christian Yelich (L) - 11.22 proj FPTS & 1.9 value on DK ($5900) 3) Yasmani Grandal (S) - 9.65 proj FPTS & 2.19 value on DK ($4400) 6) Eric Thames (L) - 8.99 proj FPTS & 2.04 value on DK ($4400) 7) Keston Hiura (R) - 9.98 proj FPTS & 1.92 value on DK ($5200)
My Favorite Hitter Stacks
I will choose hitters from the projected starting lineups primarily based on their calculated “value”, which is their projected FPTS divided by their salary. The number before each player’s name is his projected position in the batting order.
Milwaukee Brewers hitters (FD, DK)
1) Lorenzo Cain – 10.94 proj FPTS & 3.32 value on FD ($3300), 8.61 proj FPTS & 2.05 value on DK ($4200)
3) Yasmani Grandal – 12.89 proj FPTS & 4.03 value on FD ($3200), 9.72 proj FPTS & 2.21 value on DK ($4400)
5) Ryan Braun – 11.38 proj FPTS & 3.67 value on FD ($3100), 8.82 proj FPTS & 1.88 value on DK ($4700)
6) Eric Thames – 11.88 proj FPTS & 4.24 value on FD ($2800), 8.94 proj FPTS & 2.03 value on DK ($4400)
The Brewers have been a middle-of-the-pack offensive team lately and they always seem to disappoint in great matchups, but I’m going to give them another chance against young gas can Taylor Clarke (6.21 ERA, .293 avg, 1.57 WHIP). He has given up at least 2 earned runs in all 9 starts and at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5. That doesn’t sound all that terrible until you consider that he has only made it past the 4th inning in 1 of his last 5 starts. His platoon splits are even so the entire Brewers lineup is in play. While you could certainly pay up for Yelich and Moose if you have the free salary, I’m going to build a more value-oriented stack.
St Louis Cardinals hitters (FD, DK)
1) Tommy Edman – 13.11 proj FPTS & 4.85 value on FD ($2700), 9.93 proj FPTS & 2.31 value on DK ($4300)
4) Tyler O’Neill – 12.49 proj FPTS & 4.46 value on FD ($2800), 9.59 proj FPTS & 2.04 value on DK ($4700)
5) Dexter Fowler – 11.47 proj FPTS & 4.25 value on FD ($2700), 8.72 proj FPTS & 2.18 value on DK ($4000)
6) Kolten Wong
There are several aces in great matchups tonight, so you’re going to need to find some inexpensive hitter values to free up salary if you plan to pay up at SP. I originally had a Mariners stack here, but the Angels changed their SP to Jaime Barria and that ruined their appeal. My next favorite inexpensive stack is this group of Cardinals hitters against Tyler Mahle (4.82 ERA, .266 avg, 1.31 WHIP), who has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts (and 61% of his starts for the season). He has some pretty sharp platoon splits and is worse against left-handed hitters (career 2.97 avg & 1.82 WHIP), so I’ll focus my attention on the Cardinals lefties. I’m tempted to roll out an all-lefty stack, but O’Neill’s projected value is so high that I’m going to plug him in instead of Wong. Update: I swapped Weiters for Wong
Best Hitter Values
For reference, here are my app’s top hitter values by DFS site and price range. I use my own algorithm to generate projected FPTS for hitters, which is primarily based on the following:
- Hitter’s average FPTS per plate appearance against similar pitchers over the past 3 seasons
- Hitter’s projected # of plate appearances (considering batting position, home/away, & opposing pitcher)
- Pitcher’s average FPTS per plate appearance given up to similar hitters over the past 3 seasons (for starter & bullpen)
- Ballpark factors (e.g. the impact of the ballpark on fantasy production)
Value is calculated as projected FPTS / salary.
FanDuel – expensive hitters ($3500 or more)
| Hitter | FD Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (OF, LAA) | $3800 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 13.74 | 3.62 |
| Austin Meadows (OF, TB) | $3700 | Reynaldo Lopez (P, CWS) | 13 | 3.51 |
| Bryce Harper (OF, PHI) | $3900 | Jordan Lyles (P, PIT) | 13.41 | 3.44 |
| Jose Abreu (1B, CWS) | $3500 | Brendan McKay (P, TB) | 11.99 | 3.43 |
| Justin Upton (OF, LAA) | $3500 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 11.95 | 3.42 |
| DJ LeMahieu (3B, NYY) | $3800 | Kyle Freeland (P, COL) | 12.97 | 3.41 |
| Josh Donaldson (3B, ATL) | $3500 | Patrick Corbin (P, WAS) | 11.93 | 3.41 |
| Max Kepler (OF, MIN) | $3600 | Chris Bassitt (P, OAK) | 12.24 | 3.4 |
| Max Muncy (2B, LAD) | $4000 | Zac Gallen (P, MIA) | 13.55 | 3.39 |
| Keston Hiura (2B, MIL) | $3800 | Taylor Clarke (P, ARI) | 12.79 | 3.37 |
FanDuel – midrange hitters ($2500 to $3500)
| Hitter | FD Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Edman (3B, STL) | $2700 | Tyler Mahle (P, CIN) | 13.11 | 4.85 |
| Jordan Luplow (OF, CLE) | $2600 | Mike Montgomery (P, KC) | 12.44 | 4.79 |
| Tyler O’Neill (OF, STL) | $2800 | Tyler Mahle (P, CIN) | 12.49 | 4.46 |
| Joc Pederson (1B, LAD) | $3000 | Zac Gallen (P, MIA) | 12.92 | 4.31 |
| Eric Thames (1B, MIL) | $2800 | Taylor Clarke (P, ARI) | 11.93 | 4.26 |
| Dexter Fowler (OF, STL) | $2700 | Tyler Mahle (P, CIN) | 11.47 | 4.25 |
| Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN) | $2800 | Adam Wainwright (P, STL) | 11.87 | 4.24 |
| Corey Dickerson (OF, PIT) | $2600 | Jake Arrieta (P, PHI) | 11.02 | 4.24 |
| Alex Dickerson (OF, SF) | $2900 | Jacob deGrom (P, NYM) | 12.29 | 4.24 |
| Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) | $2800 | Adam Wainwright (P, STL) | 11.86 | 4.24 |
FanDuel – cheap hitters (less than $2500)
| Hitter | FD Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Haseley (OF, PHI) | $2200 | Jordan Lyles (P, PIT) | 10.24 | 4.65 |
| Keon Broxton (OF, BAL) | $2100 | David Price (P, BOS) | 9.28 | 4.42 |
| Mark Reynolds (1B, COL) | $2300 | J.A. Happ (P, NYY) | 9.16 | 3.98 |
| Kolten Wong (2B, STL) | $2400 | Tyler Mahle (P, CIN) | 9.5 | 3.96 |
| Billy McKinney (OF, TOR) | $2400 | Jordan Zimmermann (P, DET) | 9.48 | 3.95 |
| Ryan Goins (2B, CWS) | $2000 | Brendan McKay (P, TB) | 7.81 | 3.91 |
| Sam Travis (1B, BOS) | $2100 | John Means (P, BAL) | 8.14 | 3.88 |
| Kevan Smith (C, LAA) | $2200 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 8.26 | 3.75 |
| Bubba Starling (OF, KC) | $2400 | Shane Bieber (P, CLE) | 8.84 | 3.68 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera (3B, TEX) | $2400 | Justin Verlander (P, HOU) | 8.76 | 3.65 |
DraftKings – expensive hitters ($4500 or more)
| Hitter | DK Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (OF, PHI) | $4500 | Jordan Lyles (P, PIT) | 9.98 | 2.22 |
| Shohei Ohtani (OF, LAA) | $4700 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 10.36 | 2.2 |
| Juan Soto (OF, WAS) | $4600 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 10.12 | 2.2 |
| Austin Meadows (OF, TB) | $4600 | Reynaldo Lopez (P, CWS) | 10.08 | 2.19 |
| Max Muncy (1B/2B, LAD) | $4600 | Zac Gallen (P, MIA) | 10.07 | 2.19 |
| J.D. Martinez (OF, BOS) | $4700 | John Means (P, BAL) | 10.22 | 2.17 |
| Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) | $4600 | J.A. Happ (P, NYY) | 9.89 | 2.15 |
| Ronald Acuna (OF, ATL) | $4600 | Patrick Corbin (P, WAS) | 9.87 | 2.14 |
| Trea Turner (SS, WAS) | $4700 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 10.08 | 2.14 |
| DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B, NYY) | $4700 | Kyle Freeland (P, COL) | 10.02 | 2.13 |
DraftKings – midrange hitters ($3500 to $4500)
| Hitter | DK Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Winker (OF, CIN) | $3600 | Adam Wainwright (P, STL) | 9.14 | 2.54 |
| Nate Lowe (1B, TB) | $4200 | Reynaldo Lopez (P, CWS) | 10.6 | 2.52 |
| Adam Eaton (OF, WAS) | $3700 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 9.11 | 2.46 |
| Justin Smoak (1B, TOR) | $3700 | Jordan Zimmermann (P, DET) | 9.03 | 2.44 |
| Cavan Biggio (2B/OF, TOR) | $3900 | Jordan Zimmermann (P, DET) | 9.32 | 2.39 |
| Jose Abreu (1B, CWS) | $3900 | Brendan McKay (P, TB) | 9.28 | 2.38 |
| Adam Frazier (2B, PIT) | $3800 | Jake Arrieta (P, PHI) | 9.01 | 2.37 |
| Justin Upton (OF, LAA) | $3900 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 9.13 | 2.34 |
| Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR) | $3700 | Jordan Zimmermann (P, DET) | 8.6 | 2.32 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, TOR) | $3700 | Jordan Zimmermann (P, DET) | 8.58 | 2.32 |
DraftKings – cheap hitters (less than $3500)
| Hitter | DK Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Broxton (OF, BAL) | $2500 | David Price (P, BOS) | 7.16 | 2.87 |
| Scooter Gennett (2B, CIN) | $3300 | Adam Wainwright (P, STL) | 9.09 | 2.75 |
| Joey Votto (1B, CIN) | $3400 | Adam Wainwright (P, STL) | 9.08 | 2.67 |
| Richie Martin (SS, BAL) | $2000 | David Price (P, BOS) | 5.3 | 2.65 |
| Ryan Zimmerman (1B, WAS) | $3300 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 8.53 | 2.58 |
| John Hicks (1B/C, DET) | $2400 | Marcus Stroman (P, TOR) | 6.01 | 2.51 |
| Harold Castro (2B/OF, DET) | $3200 | Marcus Stroman (P, TOR) | 7.99 | 2.5 |
| Hanser Alberto (2B/3B, BAL) | $3300 | David Price (P, BOS) | 8.2 | 2.48 |
| Bubba Starling (OF, KC) | $2800 | Shane Bieber (P, CLE) | 6.93 | 2.47 |
| Welington Castillo (C, CWS) | $3000 | Brendan McKay (P, TB) | 7.39 | 2.46 |
Top-Scoring Hitters
For reference, here are my app’s top hitters in terms of total projected FPTS, ignoring value:
Top 10 hitters ranked by projected FPTS (FanDuel)
| Hitter | FD Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout (OF, LAA) | $4900 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 15.31 | 3.12 |
| Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) | $4900 | Taylor Clarke (P, ARI) | 14.77 | 3.01 |
| Cody Bellinger (OF, LAD) | $4700 | Zac Gallen (P, MIA) | 14.11 | 3 |
| Nate Lowe (1B, TB) | $3300 | Reynaldo Lopez (P, CWS) | 13.85 | 4.2 |
| Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) | $4500 | Kyle Freeland (P, COL) | 13.81 | 3.07 |
| Shohei Ohtani (OF, LAA) | $3800 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 13.74 | 3.62 |
| Max Muncy (2B, LAD) | $4000 | Zac Gallen (P, MIA) | 13.55 | 3.39 |
| Juan Soto (OF, WAS) | $4100 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 13.43 | 3.28 |
| J.D. Martinez (OF, BOS) | $4000 | John Means (P, BAL) | 13.43 | 3.36 |
| Bryce Harper (OF, PHI) | $3900 | Jordan Lyles (P, PIT) | 13.41 | 3.44 |
Top 10 hitters ranked by projected FPTS (DraftKings)
| Hitter | DK Salary | Opposing Pitcher | Projected FPTS | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout (OF, LAA) | $5800 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 11.53 | 1.99 |
| Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) | $5900 | Taylor Clarke (P, ARI) | 11.22 | 1.9 |
| Cody Bellinger (OF, LAD) | $5600 | Zac Gallen (P, MIA) | 10.66 | 1.9 |
| Nate Lowe (1B, TB) | $4200 | Reynaldo Lopez (P, CWS) | 10.6 | 2.52 |
| Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) | $5300 | Kyle Freeland (P, COL) | 10.44 | 1.97 |
| Shohei Ohtani (OF, LAA) | $4700 | Mike Leake (P, SEA) | 10.36 | 2.2 |
| J.D. Martinez (OF, BOS) | $4700 | John Means (P, BAL) | 10.22 | 2.17 |
| Juan Soto (OF, WAS) | $4600 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 10.12 | 2.2 |
| Austin Meadows (OF, TB) | $4600 | Reynaldo Lopez (P, CWS) | 10.08 | 2.19 |
| Trea Turner (SS, WAS) | $4700 | Julio Teheran (P, ATL) | 10.08 | 2.14 |
Comments
I believe the Angels are starting Jaime Barria tonight, unless there was a change and i’m just not seeing it yet.
Keep up the great work, this is a great blog!
Edit: Once I hit reply I seen you had an update on that already. My bad
Blogger of the Month
Thanks! Appreciate the heads-up. Today will be busy but hopefully I’ll be able to post an afternoon update to pick a.new stack.