MLB Data Detective - Best Player Values (May 26)

As a professional software developer with 15+ years of experience working with data in the finance industry, my passion is using data analysis to gain a competitive advantage. I developed a software application that generates custom stats and player projections from play-by-play logs of every MLB game in recent history, and I will use this blog to share my DFS-related findings as I explore this data.

We have a 10-game main slate today on FanDuel and an 11-game slate on DraftKings. The early weather forecast looks OK, but be sure to keep an eye on the MLB weather page for updates.

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How did my previous picks do?

To evaluate how my previous stack picks did, I use the cash line score in the large GPP that I entered that day as my target. For yesterday’s early slate the FD cash line was 144.3, which is equivalent to 4.12x value (i.e. FPTS / salary).

Let’s see how my picks did:

Stack Players Total Salary Total FPTS Total Value Verdict?
Arizona Diamondbacks righties (FD, DK) Vargas, Cron, Ahmed, Locastro $8,700 66.7 7.67x Success
New York Mets hitters (FD, DK) Rosario, Davis, Ramos, Frazier $10,700 68.8 6.43x Success

My hot streak continued with the 2nd straight day in which both of my recommended stacks destroyed the GPP cash line value. Both my Mets and Diamondbacks stacks were inexpensive (mostly consisting of punt plays) but delivered huge value, and either stack could have been the starting point for a lineup that easily cashed. I’m particularly proud of the Diamondbacks stack because Vegas gave them an implied run total of under 4 runs, so they were contrarian as an added bonus. With today’s continued success, 12 of my last 15 stacks have beaten the cash line value. #TrustTheData indeed!

This 2-for-2 day brings my overall season record for stack recommendations to 54-47, a 54% success rate. For comparison, the expected success rate of an average stack is approximately 20% (since I’m using the cash line from large GPPs as my success criteria).

Now let’s move onto today’s games…

Which pitching matchups should we target?

Let’s first take a look at how the probable starting pitchers rank in terms of FPTS given up to hitters per plate appearance (since the start of last season):

FPTS / PA given up (FanDuel) FPTS / PA given up (DraftKings)
Pitcher Opponent vs All vs Lefties vs Switch vs Righties vs All vs Lefties vs Switch vs Righties
David Hess (BAL) COL N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 (653 PA) 1.9 (218 PA) 1.6 (83 PA) 2.1 (352 PA)
Dylan Covey (CWS) MIN 2.4 (942 PA) 2.7 (324 PA) 2.4 (156 PA) 2.2 (462 PA) 1.9 (942 PA) 2.1 (324 PA) 1.8 (156 PA) 1.7 (462 PA)
Chris Archer (PIT) LAD 2.2 (1648 PA) 2.2 (536 PA) 2.5 (222 PA) 2.2 (890 PA) 1.7 (1648 PA) 1.7 (536 PA) 2 (222 PA) 1.7 (890 PA)
Erick Fedde (WAS) MIA 2.2 (354 PA) 2.2 (131 PA) 3.7 (36 PA) 2 (187 PA) 1.7 (354 PA) 1.7 (131 PA) 2.8 (36 PA) 1.5 (187 PA)
Danny Duffy (KC) NYY 2 (1423 PA) 1.8 (259 PA) 2.2 (241 PA) 2 (923 PA) 1.6 (1423 PA) 1.5 (259 PA) 1.7 (241 PA) 1.6 (923 PA)
Tanner Roark (CIN) CHC 2 (1760 PA) 2.3 (638 PA) 2.3 (228 PA) 1.7 (894 PA) 1.6 (1760 PA) 1.8 (638 PA) 1.8 (228 PA) 1.3 (894 PA)
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) HOU 2 (1377 PA) 2.4 (267 PA) 1.7 (180 PA) 1.9 (930 PA) 1.6 (1377 PA) 1.9 (267 PA) 1.3 (180 PA) 1.5 (930 PA)
German Marquez (COL) BAL N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.5 (1811 PA) 1.6 (675 PA) 1.5 (245 PA) 1.5 (891 PA)
Jose Quintana (CHC) CIN 1.9 (1768 PA) 1.6 (378 PA) 2.8 (197 PA) 1.9 (1193 PA) 1.5 (1768 PA) 1.3 (378 PA) 2.2 (197 PA) 1.5 (1193 PA)
Marcus Stroman (TOR) SD 1.9 (1557 PA) 2.1 (550 PA) 1.9 (215 PA) 1.8 (792 PA) 1.5 (1557 PA) 1.6 (550 PA) 1.5 (215 PA) 1.5 (792 PA)
Trevor Bauer (CLE) TB 1.9 (1762 PA) 2 (560 PA) 2.1 (280 PA) 1.8 (922 PA) 1.5 (1762 PA) 1.6 (560 PA) 1.6 (280 PA) 1.4 (922 PA)
Kenta Maeda (LAD) PIT 1.9 (1298 PA) 2.2 (454 PA) 1.9 (174 PA) 1.7 (670 PA) 1.5 (1298 PA) 1.7 (454 PA) 1.6 (174 PA) 1.3 (670 PA)
Zach Eflin (PHI) MIL 1.9 (1083 PA) 2.1 (414 PA) 2.3 (106 PA) 1.6 (563 PA) 1.5 (1083 PA) 1.7 (414 PA) 1.8 (106 PA) 1.3 (563 PA)
Zack Wheeler (NYM) DET 1.9 (1400 PA) 2.2 (474 PA) 1.5 (163 PA) 1.8 (763 PA) 1.5 (1400 PA) 1.7 (474 PA) 1.2 (163 PA) 1.4 (763 PA)
Jake Odorizzi (MIN) CWS 1.8 (1527 PA) 2.1 (459 PA) 1.6 (211 PA) 1.7 (857 PA) 1.4 (1527 PA) 1.6 (459 PA) 1.2 (211 PA) 1.3 (857 PA)
Jalen Beeks (TB) CLE 1.8 (382 PA) 2.1 (90 PA) 1 (68 PA) 2 (224 PA) 1.4 (382 PA) 1.7 (90 PA) 0.8 (68 PA) 1.6 (224 PA)
Spencer Turnbull (DET) NYM 1.8 (304 PA) 2 (93 PA) 2 (58 PA) 1.6 (153 PA) 1.4 (304 PA) 1.6 (93 PA) 1.6 (58 PA) 1.3 (153 PA)
Domingo German (NYY) KC 1.7 (660 PA) 1.7 (215 PA) 2 (126 PA) 1.6 (319 PA) 1.3 (660 PA) 1.3 (215 PA) 1.6 (126 PA) 1.2 (319 PA)
Caleb Smith (MIA) WAS 1.7 (613 PA) 1.4 (175 PA) 1.6 (63 PA) 1.9 (375 PA) 1.3 (613 PA) 1.1 (175 PA) 1.2 (63 PA) 1.5 (375 PA)
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) PHI 1.7 (593 PA) 2.2 (222 PA) 1.2 (60 PA) 1.4 (311 PA) 1.4 (593 PA) 1.8 (222 PA) 1 (60 PA) 1.1 (311 PA)
Justin Verlander (HOU) BOS 1.6 (1956 PA) 1.4 (691 PA) 1.8 (240 PA) 1.7 (1025 PA) 1.3 (1956 PA) 1.1 (691 PA) 1.4 (240 PA) 1.3 (1025 PA)
Chris Paddack (SD) TOR 1.2 (195 PA) 1.7 (84 PA) 1.6 (23 PA) 0.6 (88 PA) 1 (195 PA) 1.3 (84 PA) 1.3 (23 PA) 0.5 (88 PA)

Here are the most hitter-friendly platoon splits by FPTS given up per plate appearance to hitters (minimum 50 plate appearances):

Pitcher Opponent Against hitters who bat… FPTS/PA given up (FD) FPTS/PA given up (DK)
  1. Plate appearances against
Jose Quintana (CHC) CIN Switch-hitter 2.8 2.2 197
Dylan Covey (CWS) MIN Left-handed 2.7 2.1 324
David Hess (BAL) COL Right-handed N/A 2.1 352
Chris Archer (PIT) LAD Switch-hitter 2.5 2 222
David Hess (BAL) COL Left-handed N/A 1.9 218
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) HOU Left-handed 2.4 1.9 267

My App’s Top-Value Hitter Stacks (FanDuel)

LAD hitters vs "(player-popup #chris-archer)Chris Archer":/players/chris-archer-17449 (PIT) - Score: 11.7, Value: 3.13 (FD):
1) "(player-popup #joc-pederson)Joc Pederson":/players/joc-pederson-16129 (L) - 12.15 proj FPTS & 3.28 value on FD ($3700)
2) "(player-popup #max-muncy)Max Muncy":/players/max-muncy-17648 (L) - 11.75 proj FPTS & 3.46 value on FD ($3400)
3) "(player-popup #justin-turner)Justin Turner":/players/justin-turner-11113 (R) - 10.56 proj FPTS & 3.52 value on FD ($3000)
4) "(player-popup #cody-bellinger)Cody Bellinger":/players/cody-bellinger-36727 (L) - 12.48 proj FPTS & 2.55 value on FD ($4900)
5) "(player-popup #corey-seager)Corey Seager":/players/corey-seager-16176 (L) - 9.79 proj FPTS & 3.16 value on FD ($3100)

WAS hitters vs "(player-popup #caleb-smith)Caleb Smith":/players/caleb-smith-36267 (MIA) - Score: 11.63, Value: 3.38 (FD):
1) "(player-popup #trea-turner)Trea Turner":/players/trea-turner-21824 (R) - 11.97 proj FPTS & 2.92 value on FD ($4100)
3) "(player-popup #anthony-rendon)Anthony Rendon":/players/anthony-rendon-14613 (R) - 12.89 proj FPTS & 3.07 value on FD ($4200)
4) "(player-popup #howie-kendrick)Howie Kendrick":/players/howie-kendrick-14586 (R) - 9.54 proj FPTS & 3.53 value on FD ($2700)
6) "(player-popup #kurt-suzuki)Kurt Suzuki":/players/kurt-suzuki-10265 (R) - 10.36 proj FPTS & 4.14 value on FD ($2500)
7) "(player-popup #brian-dozier)Brian Dozier":/players/brian-dozier-13440 (R) - 9.64 proj FPTS & 3.71 value on FD ($2600)

MIA hitters vs "(player-popup #erick-fedde)Erick Fedde":/players/erick-fedde-37432 (WAS) - Score: 11.45, Value: 4.02 (FD):
1) "(player-popup #curtis-granderson)Curtis Granderson":/players/curtis-granderson-10522 (L) - 11.8 proj FPTS & 4.72 value on FD ($2500)
3) "(player-popup #brian-anderson)Brian Anderson":/players/brian-anderson-36571 (R) - 9.38 proj FPTS & 3.35 value on FD ($2800)
4) "(player-popup #neil-walker)Neil Walker":/players/neil-walker-10376 (S) - 10.77 proj FPTS & 4.68 value on FD ($2300)
5) "(player-popup #starlin-castro)Starlin Castro":/players/starlin-castro-10482 (R) - 8.49 proj FPTS & 3.86 value on FD ($2200)
6) "(player-popup #harold-ramirez)Harold Ramirez":/players/harold-ramirez-17826 (R) - 8.95 proj FPTS & 3.58 value on FD ($2500)

NYY hitters vs "(player-popup #danny-duffy)Danny Duffy":/players/danny-duffy-11224 (KC) - Score: 11.41, Value: 3.03 (FD):
1) "(player-popup #dj-lemahieu)DJ LeMahieu":/players/dj-lemahieu-13703 (R) - 11.8 proj FPTS & 3.19 value on FD ($3700)
2) "(player-popup #luke-voit)Luke Voit":/players/luke-voit-37227 (R) - 11.57 proj FPTS & 2.75 value on FD ($4200)
3) "(player-popup #aaron-hicks)Aaron Hicks":/players/aaron-hicks-14541 (S) - 11.21 proj FPTS & 3.2 value on FD ($3500)
4) "(player-popup #gary-sanchez)Gary Sanchez":/players/gary-sanchez-15038 (R) - 11.43 proj FPTS & 2.6 value on FD ($4400)
5) "(player-popup #kendrys-morales)Kendrys Morales":/players/kendrys-morales-13386 (S) - 9.41 proj FPTS & 3.76 value on FD ($2500)

MIL hitters vs "(player-popup #zach-eflin)Zach Eflin":/players/zach-eflin-35145 (PHI) - Score: 11.15, Value: 3.06 (FD):
1) "(player-popup #lorenzo-cain)Lorenzo Cain":/players/lorenzo-cain-13286 (R) - 9.22 proj FPTS & 2.79 value on FD ($3300)
2) "(player-popup #christian-yelich)Christian Yelich":/players/christian-yelich-15181 (L) - 13.21 proj FPTS & 2.75 value on FD ($4800)
3) "(player-popup #ryan-braun)Ryan Braun":/players/ryan-braun-10542 (R) - 10.03 proj FPTS & 3.13 value on FD ($3200)
4) "(player-popup #mike-moustakas)Mike Moustakas":/players/mike-moustakas-11315 (L) - 10.61 proj FPTS & 2.95 value on FD ($3600)
6) "(player-popup #eric-thames)Eric Thames":/players/eric-thames-11223 (L) - 10.26 proj FPTS & 4.11 value on FD ($2500)

My App’s Top-Value Hitter Stacks (DraftKings)

NYY hitters vs "(player-popup #danny-duffy)Danny Duffy":/players/danny-duffy-11224 (KC) - Score: 8.55, Value: 2.05 (DK):
1) "(player-popup #dj-lemahieu)DJ LeMahieu":/players/dj-lemahieu-13703 (R) - 9.32 proj FPTS & 2.22 value on DK ($4200)
2) "(player-popup #luke-voit)Luke Voit":/players/luke-voit-37227 (R) - 8.99 proj FPTS & 1.91 value on DK ($4700)
3) "(player-popup #aaron-hicks)Aaron Hicks":/players/aaron-hicks-14541 (S) - 8.59 proj FPTS & 2.09 value on DK ($4100)
4) "(player-popup #gary-sanchez)Gary Sanchez":/players/gary-sanchez-15038 (R) - 8.72 proj FPTS & 1.68 value on DK ($5200)
5) "(player-popup #kendrys-morales)Kendrys Morales":/players/kendrys-morales-13386 (S) - 7.35 proj FPTS & 2.62 value on DK ($2800)

COL hitters vs "(player-popup #david-hess)David Hess":/players/david-hess-37990 (BAL) - Score: 8.51, Value: 1.76 (DK):
1) "(player-popup #raimel-tapia)Raimel Tapia":/players/raimel-tapia-34704 (L) - 8.52 proj FPTS & 1.77 value on DK ($4800)
2) "(player-popup #trevor-story)Trevor Story":/players/trevor-story-17740 (R) - 9.64 proj FPTS & 1.72 value on DK ($5600)
3) "(player-popup #david-dahl)David Dahl":/players/david-dahl-17878 (L) - 8.57 proj FPTS & 1.86 value on DK ($4600)
4) "(player-popup #nolan-arenado)Nolan Arenado":/players/nolan-arenado-14626 (R) - 9.41 proj FPTS & 1.65 value on DK ($5700)
5) "(player-popup #daniel-murphy)Daniel Murphy":/players/daniel-murphy-10365 (L) - 8.85 proj FPTS & 1.81 value on DK ($4900)

LAD hitters vs "(player-popup #chris-archer)Chris Archer":/players/chris-archer-17449 (PIT) - Score: 8.48, Value: 1.88 (DK):
1) "(player-popup #joc-pederson)Joc Pederson":/players/joc-pederson-16129 (L) - 9.33 proj FPTS & 1.83 value on DK ($5100)
2) "(player-popup #max-muncy)Max Muncy":/players/max-muncy-17648 (L) - 9.09 proj FPTS & 1.98 value on DK ($4600)
3) "(player-popup #justin-turner)Justin Turner":/players/justin-turner-11113 (R) - 8.26 proj FPTS & 2.02 value on DK ($4100)
4) "(player-popup #cody-bellinger)Cody Bellinger":/players/cody-bellinger-36727 (L) - 9.68 proj FPTS & 1.7 value on DK ($5700)
5) "(player-popup #corey-seager)Corey Seager":/players/corey-seager-16176 (L) - 7.58 proj FPTS & 1.94 value on DK ($3900)

WAS hitters vs "(player-popup #caleb-smith)Caleb Smith":/players/caleb-smith-36267 (MIA) - Score: 8.44, Value: 1.95 (DK):
1) "(player-popup #trea-turner)Trea Turner":/players/trea-turner-21824 (R) - 9.39 proj FPTS & 2.04 value on DK ($4600)
3) "(player-popup #anthony-rendon)Anthony Rendon":/players/anthony-rendon-14613 (R) - 9.83 proj FPTS & 1.79 value on DK ($5500)
5) "(player-popup #juan-soto)Juan Soto":/players/juan-soto-326703 (L) - 8.15 proj FPTS & 1.66 value on DK ($4900)
6) "(player-popup #kurt-suzuki)Kurt Suzuki":/players/kurt-suzuki-10265 (R) - 8.11 proj FPTS & 2.19 value on DK ($3700)
7) "(player-popup #brian-dozier)Brian Dozier":/players/brian-dozier-13440 (R) - 7.5 proj FPTS & 2.27 value on DK ($3300)

MIA hitters vs "(player-popup #erick-fedde)Erick Fedde":/players/erick-fedde-37432 (WAS) - Score: 8.08, Value: 2.26 (DK):
1) "(player-popup #curtis-granderson)Curtis Granderson":/players/curtis-granderson-10522 (L) - 9.03 proj FPTS & 2.38 value on DK ($3800)
3) "(player-popup #brian-anderson)Brian Anderson":/players/brian-anderson-36571 (R) - 7.41 proj FPTS & 2 value on DK ($3700)
4) "(player-popup #neil-walker)Neil Walker":/players/neil-walker-10376 (S) - 8.39 proj FPTS & 2.4 value on DK ($3500)
5) "(player-popup #starlin-castro)Starlin Castro":/players/starlin-castro-10482 (R) - 6.74 proj FPTS & 2.5 value on DK ($2700)
6) "(player-popup #harold-ramirez)Harold Ramirez":/players/harold-ramirez-17826 (R) - 7.14 proj FPTS & 2.1 value on DK ($3400)

My Favorite Hitter Stacks

I will choose hitters from the projected starting lineups primarily based on their calculated “value”, which is their projected FPTS divided by their salary. The number before each player’s name is his projected position in the batting order.

Los Angeles Dodgers hitters (FD, DK)

1) Joc Pederson – 12.15 proj FPTS & 3.28 value on FD ($3700), 9.33 proj FPTS & 1.83 value on DK ($5100)
2) Max Muncy – 11.75 proj FPTS & 3.46 value on FD ($3400), 9.09 proj FPTS & 1.98 value on DK ($4600)
3) Justin Turner – 10.56 proj FPTS & 3.52 value on FD ($3000), 8.26 proj FPTS & 2.02 value on DK ($4100)
5) Corey Seager – 9.79 proj FPTS & 3.16 value on FD ($3100), 7.58 proj FPTS & 1.94 value on DK ($3900)

Chris Archer is a big name pitcher and historically not someone whom most people would look to stack against, but the reality is that he simply hasn’t been a good pitcher this season (5.55 ERA, .244 avg, 1.43 WHIP). In fact, he has given up at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts, so either something is wrong or he’s just in a funk. Either way, I like the Dodgers’ chances to continue the trend today. Archer’s platoon splits are pretty even, so every Dodgers hitter is in play. This group of blue chip hitters in the top half of their lineup are priced as if Archer has been pitching at his mid-career form, and as a result they offer good projected value. This stack is riskier than most that I’ve been picking lately, but they should have relatively low ownership and offer plenty of upside to make the risk acceptable.

Any other good-looking stacks?

I’m sure there are, but it’s past my bedtime and I’m too exhausted to continue right now so I’ll take a fresh look in the morning and hopefully add another stack or two.

Best Hitter Values

For reference, here are my app’s top hitter values by DFS site and price range. I use my own algorithm to generate projected FPTS for hitters, which is primarily based on the following:

  • Hitter’s average FPTS per plate appearance against similar pitchers over the past 3 seasons
  • Hitter’s projected # of plate appearances (i.e. the league-wide average for his batting position)
  • Pitcher’s average FPTS per plate appearance given up to similar hitters over the past 3 seasons (for starter & bullpen)
  • Ballpark factors (e.g. the impact of the ballpark on fantasy production)

Value is calculated as projected FPTS / salary.

FanDuel – expensive hitters ($3500 or more)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) $3700 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 12.15 3.28
Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) $3500 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 11.21 3.2
DJ LeMahieu (2B, NYY) $3700 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 11.8 3.19
Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN) $3600 Jose Quintana (P, CHC) 11.34 3.15
Tommy Pham (OF, TB) $3500 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 10.91 3.12
Max Kepler (OF, MIN) $3800 Dylan Covey (P, CWS) 11.75 3.09
Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS) $4200 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 12.89 3.07
Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) $3600 Spencer Turnbull (P, DET) 11.02 3.06
Austin Meadows (OF, TB) $3900 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 11.77 3.02
Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) $3600 Jalen Beeks (P, TB) 10.79 3

FanDuel – midrange hitters ($2500 to $3500)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Curtis Granderson (OF, MIA) $2500 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 11.8 4.72
Kurt Suzuki (C, WAS) $2500 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 10.36 4.14
Eric Thames (1B, MIL) $2500 Zach Eflin (P, PHI) 10.26 4.11
Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB) $2500 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 9.8 3.92
Kendrys Morales (1B, NYY) $2500 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 9.41 3.76
Brian Dozier (2B, WAS) $2600 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 9.64 3.71
Jordan Luplow (OF, CLE) $3000 Jalen Beeks (P, TB) 10.99 3.66
Greg Garcia (SS, SD) $2500 Marcus Stroman (P, TOR) 9.01 3.6
Harold Ramirez (OF, MIA) $2500 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 8.95 3.58
Howie Kendrick (1B, WAS) $2700 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 9.54 3.53

FanDuel – cheap hitters (less than $2500)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Neil Walker (1B, MIA) $2300 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 10.77 4.68
Daniel Descalso (2B, CHC) $2200 Tanner Roark (P, CIN) 8.53 3.88
Starlin Castro (2B, MIA) $2200 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 8.49 3.86
Jose Peraza (2B, CIN) $2100 Jose Quintana (P, CHC) 7.97 3.8
Jose Iglesias (SS, CIN) $2200 Jose Quintana (P, CHC) 8.17 3.72
Austin Barnes (C, LAD) $2400 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 8.55 3.56
Wil Myers (OF, SD) $2400 Marcus Stroman (P, TOR) 8.55 3.56
Kevin Plawecki (C, CLE) $2000 Jalen Beeks (P, TB) 7.04 3.52
Manny Pina (C, MIL) $2000 Zach Eflin (P, PHI) 7.01 3.5
Jake Marisnick (OF, HOU) $2400 Eduardo Rodriguez (P, BOS) 8.3 3.46

DraftKings – expensive hitters ($4500 or more)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Trea Turner (SS, WAS) $4600 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 9.39 2.04
Bryce Harper (OF, PHI) $4500 Brandon Woodruff (P, MIL) 9.02 2.01
Max Muncy (1B/2B, LAD) $4600 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 9.09 1.98
Luke Voit (1B, NYY) $4700 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 8.99 1.91
David Dahl (OF, COL) $4600 David Hess (P, BAL) 8.57 1.86
Tommy Pham (OF, TB) $4600 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 8.55 1.86
Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) $4600 Jalen Beeks (P, TB) 8.47 1.84
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) $5100 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 9.33 1.83
Daniel Murphy (1B, COL) $4900 David Hess (P, BAL) 8.85 1.81
Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) $4600 Eduardo Rodriguez (P, BOS) 8.26 1.8

DraftKings – midrange hitters ($3500 to $4500)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Neil Walker (1B, MIA) $3500 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 8.39 2.4
Curtis Granderson (OF, MIA) $3800 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 9.03 2.38
DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B, NYY) $4200 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 9.32 2.22
Kurt Suzuki (C, WAS) $3700 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 8.11 2.19
Andrew Benintendi (OF, BOS) $3600 Justin Verlander (P, HOU) 7.8 2.17
Jordan Luplow (OF, CLE) $4100 Jalen Beeks (P, TB) 8.74 2.13
Jose Ramirez (3B, CLE) $3700 Jalen Beeks (P, TB) 7.79 2.1
Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) $4100 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 8.59 2.09
Nicholas Castellanos (OF, DET) $3500 Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) 7.32 2.09
Ji-Man Choi (1B, TB) $3700 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 7.72 2.09

DraftKings – cheap hitters (less than $3500)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Kendrys Morales (1B, NYY) $2800 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 7.35 2.62
Starlin Castro (2B, MIA) $2700 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 6.74 2.5
Martin Maldonado (C, KC) $2200 Domingo German (P, NYY) 5.05 2.29
Josh Harrison (2B, DET) $2500 Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) 5.73 2.29
Adam Frazier (2B, PIT) $3400 Kenta Maeda (P, LAD) 7.78 2.29
Brian Dozier (2B, WAS) $3300 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 7.5 2.27
Christin Stewart (OF, DET) $3200 Zack Wheeler (P, NYM) 7.12 2.22
Yonder Alonso (1B, CWS) $2900 Jake Odorizzi (P, MIN) 6.43 2.22
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) $3300 Jose Quintana (P, CHC) 7.29 2.21
Daniel Descalso (2B, CHC) $3000 Tanner Roark (P, CIN) 6.59 2.2

Top-Scoring Hitters

For reference, here are my app’s top hitters in terms of total projected FPTS, ignoring value:

Top 10 hitters ranked by projected FPTS (FanDuel)

Hitter FD Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) $4800 Zach Eflin (P, PHI) 13.21 2.75
Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS) $4200 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 12.89 3.07
Cody Bellinger (OF, LAD) $4900 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 12.48 2.55
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) $3700 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 12.15 3.28
Anthony Rizzo (1B, CHC) $4600 Tanner Roark (P, CIN) 12.05 2.62
Trea Turner (SS, WAS) $4100 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 11.97 2.92
Curtis Granderson (OF, MIA) $2500 Erick Fedde (P, WAS) 11.8 4.72
DJ LeMahieu (2B, NYY) $3700 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 11.8 3.19
Bryce Harper (OF, PHI) $4300 Brandon Woodruff (P, MIL) 11.78 2.74
Austin Meadows (OF, TB) $3900 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 11.77 3.02

Top 10 hitters ranked by projected FPTS (DraftKings)

Hitter DK Salary Opposing Pitcher Projected FPTS Value
Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) $5800 Zach Eflin (P, PHI) 10.28 1.77
Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS) $5500 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 9.83 1.79
Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, LAD) $5700 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 9.68 1.7
Trevor Story (SS, COL) $5600 David Hess (P, BAL) 9.64 1.72
Austin Meadows (OF, TB) $5500 Trevor Bauer (P, CLE) 9.44 1.72
Nolan Arenado (3B, COL) $5700 David Hess (P, BAL) 9.41 1.65
Trea Turner (SS, WAS) $4600 Caleb Smith (P, MIA) 9.39 2.04
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) $5100 Chris Archer (P, PIT) 9.33 1.83
DJ LeMahieu (2B/3B, NYY) $4200 Danny Duffy (P, KC) 9.32 2.22
Anthony Rizzo (1B, CHC) $5300 Tanner Roark (P, CIN) 9.3 1.75

About the Author

Comments

  • Rolandkatet

    Thanks! Yesterday’s Arizona stack and a few Mets choices had place 45th out of a 500 person contest. #TrustTheData.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Rolandkatet said...

    Thanks! Yesterday’s Arizona stack and a few Mets choices had place 45th out of a 500 person contest. #TrustTheData.

    Congrats! Always love hearing success stories 👍

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