MLB DFS Bootcamper Day 2
Brag: I am a top 100 NBA player. I can tell you rosters 12 deep and which matchups to exploit by a glance at the schedule for the day. I can guess an over under within 2 points on any given game. I can guess which players will be low owned and still have value for big potential GPP scores.
Humble: I know 8 players for the Pirates. My favorite team. I don’t know why K means strikeout. Babip sounds like a cute character in Monsters Inc. I actually enjoy baseball. Little League games. For the hot dogs.
So, after my degenerate self retired from NBA for the year, I decided to dabble in MLB. I played 8 nights and lost in 7 of those. The question was, do I just wait until NBA season or do I really want to give MLB a legitimate shot. So, I attended the DFS Bootcamp. Could they make me into a player? We’re about to find out.
I play FanDuel only, so I put $1,000 in to start. The most difficult part was breaking away from my GPP only strategy in NBA. I will be following this format:
Around 8% in 50/50 and Double Ups
0.5% or so in Triple ups and Quintuple ups
1.5% or so in GPPs
10% bet overall. Winning the 50/50s should cover all my bets so that’s my focus.
I land on the following:
C: I have Navarro and Norris as 1A and 1B
1B: I’m landing on Santana and Moss. Moss is above Santana.
2B: Loving Dozier and Kipnis
3B: Not liking 3B at all. The highest I’ll pay is Middlebrooks, but looking hard at Chisenhall and Plouffe
SS is Tulo, but knowing I will be spending on so many other positions, this could become a punt with Christian Colon.
OF I want Upton, Myers, Kemp, CarGo, and/or Stanton, my values are Khris Davis, Corey Hart, Michael Bourn, and AJ Pollock.
I don’t feel comfortable enough to do my own pitchers yet, so experts top plays will become my top plays for now. Today, it’s a choice between Liriano and McHugh with some Taijuan sprinkled in. Being a Pirate fan, Liriano I go.
I play the same lineup in all the games but GPPs. In GPPs, I’ll field 6 different lineups using a combo of players above.
At C I love Navarro for the price, but all the experts are heavy on Norris again, so I feel I have to play him in cash just to block.
At 1B I was liking Moss, but again the experts convince me that Santana is worth the lower price, so I go Santana.
At 2B, the experts confirmed my Kipnis pick. All in.
At 3B, most liked Middlebrooks. Middlebrooks it was.
AT SS, they were all about Tulo or punting to either Segura or Owings. I didn’t have a whole lot of faith in Segura or Brewers for that matter, so I plugged Tulo in for now. At OF, they confirm my Kemp pick and my CarGo pick, but not so much on Upton. He was #1 on my model by far yet again, but having to cut some costs and with his hammy, I plugged Myers in.
Had to do some major cost cutting so off went Tulo and in came Owings. Still having to cut some costs, I went from Middlebrooks to Plouffe. With the extra $200, I decide to move up from Santana to Moss.
Yes, that fateful move.
Anyway, scored 31.0. That final switch not being made would have been $168.20 in winnings.
Lost in everything except for 2 $2 50/50s. A grand total of $7.20 for $104.
Bottom Line for the day:
Lost $14 in GPPs
Lost $4 in Quints
Lost $5 in Triples
Lost $23 in Double Ups
Won $7.20 on $58 in 50/50s
$104 bet, $7.20 won. Lost $96.80
For the Season:
Lost $30 in GPPs
Lost $8 in Quints
Lost $7 in Triples
Lost $0.67 on Double Ups
Lost $7.80 in 50/50s
Lost $53.47 for the season. Lesson learned. Go chalk in cash. Never strike out on your own because salary or feel. That’s what GPPs are for. Use my model, but if an outstanding player from the model isn’t confirmed by the experts, then it’s a GPP play only. A $161 swing because I was too stubborn to listen.
On to Day 3…