Multiple Cash Game Lineups - Fanduel - NFL Week 2
Should I enter multiple cash game lineups for NFL?
If you ask this question, most advocate a single cash game lineup. When I searched for the theory behind this, I did find some notable DFS veterans on the other side of the argument.
Why limit yourself to 100% or 0% exposure in your cash lineups? If you play Head to Head games, a single lineup may make sense – you limit your losses if you have a lineup outside of the top 50%. But in Double Ups or 50/50’s, it’s pretty much an all or nothing proposition. Most weeks, with a single lineup you will win every contest or lose every one..rarely do you fall right on the line.
I entered a single lineup in week 1 and lost. It was at this moment that I realized putting my entire week of profits on a single lineup lends itself to all sorts of variance. NFL is only 17 weeks. 17 lineups isn’t enough to overcome variance. I also did not want to spread out my play on different slates/sites at this point. So I decided to enter multiple 50/50 lineups.
I downloaded my results from my relatively limited NFL DFS experience
2014 – profited in 50/50 4 out of 6 weeks 60%
2015 – profited in 50/50 8 out of 10 weeks 80%
Due to poor bankroll management – (I was wildly inconsistent with the amount I would put in play each week), I only saw a ROI of 8.6%.
My Process – Single lineup
I always start with consensus projections. You can compile these from many different sources. But I generally follow the “Wisdom of the Crowd”. I load those projections into a spreadsheet to determine an optimal lineup based on those projections. (I recommend learning how to use the solver add in for Excel).
I always play around with these projections to get what I feel is a safe lineup for cash game play. I may force in a player that I know will be highly owned – and typically make sure I don’t have two negatively correlated players on the roster or too much exposure to one game.
My Process – Multiple Lineups
The same as above, but I start by choosing my QB, and build a lineup around that position. I will try to pick at least 4 QBs to have exposure to each week from a range of salaries. By selecting quarterbacks from different salary ranges, it will make it simpler to diversify the rest of the lineups.
In week 2, I entered a total of 11 cash game lineups. At the quarterback position, I had exposure to the following QBs:
I built optimal lineups around each QB, and then modified the lineups to spread out exposure. I limited the amount of times I had the same pairings as much as possible. I didn’t want to have the same players overlap in multiple lineups more than a couple of times. I also didn’t have 50% or greater exposure to any single player.
But won’t you be fielding sub-optimal lineups?
The reality is, that no projections are perfect. None of my lineups projected more than 5 points lower than than my optimal lineup in week 2.
I also threw each of these lineups into the $1 Dive (Just in Case).
The Results – Week 2
11 lineups – $20 entered into 50/50 per lineup. $220 total entries.
Lineup 1 (Siemien) 127.14 pts. $16 Profit
Lineup 6 (Newton 130.92 pts. $16 Profit
Lineup 2 (Newton) 101.62 pts. $20 Loss
Lineup 11 (Newton) 120.12 pts $16 Profit
Lineup 9 (Newton) 113.92 pts $16 Profit
Lineup 3 (Palmer) 103.42 pts $12.80 Loss
Lineup 8 (Palmer) 124.02 pts $16 Profit
Lineup 4 (Manning) 114.82 pts $16 Profit
Lineup 5 (Manning) 93.62 pts $20 Loss
Lineup 7 (Stafford) 99.7 pts $20 Loss
Lineup 10 (Stafford) 135.4 pts $16 Profit
Total (50/50 Only) $39.20 Profit.
Total GPP Entries $0.50 Profit
Grand Total $39.70 Profit
My ‘optimal lineup’ was the one with Cam that scored 130.92 pts. So, I would have won regardless. However, the plan is, that utilizing this strategy of lineup diversification, I will put more into play each week than I would with a single cash lineup, since it would be much less likely to lose 100% of weekly entries. As I am more comfortable with the proper balance and my process of lineup building, I will plan to slowly increase my play.
The amount of play will also depend on the week, and how many players I feel comfortable with having exposure to each week.
I am not claiming to be an expert, but by putting my results out here each week, I hope that it will be beneficial to the community – whether I win or lose.