Multiple Cash Game Lineups - FanDuel - NFL Week 3
Last week, I detailed my experiment with multiple cash game lineups.
This was a bit of a crazy week. Given how my lineups looked midway through the 4:00 games, I was happy to end up with just a small loss. Totals include wins/losses based on $20 in 50/50s and $1 GPP per entry.
Lineup 1 109.88 – $13.80 Loss
Lineup 2 125.58 – $17 Profit
Lineup 3 95.0 – $21.00 Loss
Lineup 4 111.2 – $8.40 Loss (Zeke and Bailey in this lineup just missed payline in many of the entries)
Lineup 5 102.96 – $21.00 Loss
Lineup 6 114.58 – $3.30 Loss (Finished 51/100 in 3 contests and 55/100 in another – Thanks Dan Bailey)
Lineup 7 107.2 – $15.60 Loss
Lineup 8 138.1 – $18 Profit
Lineup 9 112.08 – $1.20 Loss (Again victimized by Zeke getting vultured – also had Roethlisberger in this lineup. Replaced Luck with Roethlisberger in 2 lineups over concern with his shoulder)
Lineup 10 122.96 – $16.50 Profit
Lineup 11 108 – $21.00 Loss
Total Week 3 $53.80 Loss
I was just a Zeke touchdown or another Bailey field goal away from this being a profitable week.
I was straddling the payline in 5 contests. It could have gone either way. I was fortunate to not take a bigger hit. I only had 3 lineups that profited in all my 50/50s and 3 that were complete losers. 5 lineups were near the payline and each of these had net losses.
I would have lost on my single optimal cash lineup (Rivers was my favored QB).
Here is the exposure I had to each player (11 lineups)
David Johnson (5)
DeAngelo Williams (3)
Beckham Jr (3)
The worst plays were DeAngelo Williams, Rivers and Roethlisberger.
DeAngelo was the worst performer in 2 of the 3 lineups that did not cash at all. I did manage to straddle the payline in 2 of 3 Rivers lineups. I survived having Ben in 2 lineups – Scoring 125 pts and 112 points.
More About Multiple Cash Game Lineup Theory – and Where it (Maybe) Went Wrong)
This entire process/experiment is based on expected results assuming a binomial distribution.
Assume, for example, you are a winning cash game player, and can win 50/50 contest at a 60% clip. If you also assume that you can create multiple cash game lineups per week with this same 60% advantage – you will greatly limit your variability by entering multiple lineups. Entering 11 cash game lineups with equal $ per each lineup, the odds would be 75% that you would do no worse than break even.
I have been a winning cash game player over the last 2 NFL seasons (Just over 70% in 50/50s). But with such a small sample size, it is really hard to gauge what my advantage is (if there is even an advantage). If I am a mid-pack player and have a 50% chance of winning any contest, then I will slowly lose my bankroll – as is the case with any other method. I will win half the time and contribute to rake until my bankroll is spent. If I truly have an expected win rate of 60% or higher, then this method will reduce my variance and I should finish the season with a profit..
Also, the assumption that I can create 11 lineups and not impact my win rate is probably not entirely accurate. I definitely forced some plays that cost me this week. Going forward I may limit my exposure to a smaller pool of players and will avoid forcing players in for the sole reason of diversification. This could result in less lineups. Without overreacting to an off week, I will strive to only make smart Cash Game plays, I really slipped into a GPP strategy with a few plays that I knew weren’t good value plays at the time.