Multiple Entry Approach to GPPs... Lessons Learned
In the last few months, heck maybe even the entire last year, there has been a lot of scrutiny over the multi-entry system and how it gives the big boys an unfair advantage to win a GPP. We’ve seen critics (often guys who never win) write lengthy pieces in the New York Times and other big news outlets. We’ve seen rebuttals on here written by several industry pros. We’ve seen a lot of forums with little guys ranting and raving over how the big guys have an advantage over them because of the multi-entry system. Look, I don’t care where you fall on the ideology of the topic but the fact is that having multiple lineups, with exposure to many different players will indeed give you a better shot at winning than the guy who enters 1 lineup. I was never a fan of math in school but the laws of probability are about as consistent as the Ideal Gas Law applied anywhere outside of Foxboro, MA.
Now before you get angry and tell me that math lies and that Tom Brady is a master at cheating (we all know that Belichick is the real mastermind, Ha!) let me share the results of an experiment I did using multi-entries/lineups. JMToWin did a fantastic overview of what I was thinking in his NBA Edge article last week and he explained, briefly which says something for him that he was brief, something I tested a week or so ago. I am a micro-grinder by all measures and I constantly enter quarter arcades on DraftKings. In fact, I’ve won the majority of my winnings in those tournaments and I’ve got a nice $20 check on my fridge from DraftKings courtesy of a quarter arcade (aim high!). My goal was to take a few bucks, enter multiple lineups and then take those winnings and continue up the GPP ranks into $1 entries and so on.
Since I work full time and have two young children, my research scope and time is limited. What I tend to do, as I am doing now, is research on my breaks while at work. I read everything and anything I possibly can. I jot down the names of everyone recommended and then put a mark next to each name for every time they are mentioned in an article. Those with the most checks get inserted into my lineups (this strategy actually made me a good deal of loot for MLB). I decided to use a lineup generator to come up with 50 random lineups with manipulated exposure to the most recommended players. Armed with 50 unique lineups, $12.50 in entry fees, I was ready to go. I knew I was going to take the whole thing that night and make a nice little profit. What did I see when I picked up my phone to turn off my alarm at 4am? An email notification from DraftKings congratulating me on my winnings! Like a little kid hearing a clatter on his roof on Christmas Eve, I sprung from my bed in pure excitement and joy! I opened the app and noticed I did indeed win, I won a whopping $2.50. Life altering money indeed.
How could this be? I was now a multi-entry player and the nerd at the NY Times with the picture of his industry expert in his bedroom in his parents house assured me that DFS was complete anarchy and all you need to do to win is use these mass entry tools. The reasoning is simple and something that is so common sense that I was mad at myself for even needing to test it; just because you do more of something it doesn’t automatically mean the results are going to be better. Yes, the laws of probability will tell you that your chances of winning will indeed be better but the question is how much better? If you are using multiple lineups of garbage players the fact of the matter is, you aren’t going to get better results. I’m not bashing the folks I get my advice from; it’s not their fault I don’t have time to dig deeper into their suggestions and advice and it certainly isn’t their fault that I may not fully understand how to use their tools to my advantage quite yet. I’m simply stating the truth that adding a variety of different turds to a turd sandwich hoping that it will suddenly taste like a cheeseburger will leave you with one thing; a bigger turd sandwich that still tastes like crap.