My Journey to the Open Championship
Now things are getting serious. Yesterday, Draftkings fully released some contests with pricing. That’s right, PRICING IS OUT! PRICING IS OUT! So, now people can create lineups for the next 7 days and then tinker, change, substitute, tinker some more and finally submit lineups 10 minutes before the early AM Thursday lock. So, let’s take a look at pricing and see if there is something here to incorporate into my research process.
Nothing jumps out at me on first look. Usually, you’ll see one or two (or sometimes even more) mispricings when you look at golf pricing for the week. I don’t see that this time. The middle ground ($8k to $9k) is full of good players, but no one seems like a screaming value. Oosthuizen, Woodland, Casey, Stenson, Hideki, Day, Kuchar, Scott and Spieth are in the grouping, but do you see a guaranteed top 5 type of player here? I don’t. Just below $8k are players like Sergio, Finau and Leishman. Leishman strikes me as the best of this threesome as Sergio and Finau are not in anything close to their normal form.
Top players get the top prices. At $11.6k and $11.4k, Rory and Koepka are the top two highest priced golfers this week. And deservedly so. Both players are big game hunters and generally play well at the Majors, including the Open Championship. DJ is #3 at $10.9k and is always a top option. Rahm and Tiger are just behind DJ and I have no interest in those guys. Rahm since he just won the Irish Open (I don’t play players who have just won) and Tiger because I don’t like his preparation (or lack thereof) for the Open. The only other players near $10k are Justin Rose (good option) and Tommy Fleetwood (not sure he is in form).
The $7k-$7.5k range is my jam. I have much more research to do to finalize my player pool, but I am loving this $7k-$7.5k price range. Players that could produce here include Sungjae Im, Andy Sullivan, Grillo, Zach Attack Johnson, Branden Grace, Thorbjorn Olesen, Hao-Tong Li, Patrick Reed, Tyrell Hatton, Danny Willett and Rafa Cabrera Bello. I am not sure how popular these guys will be, but this is a route to getting one or two high-priced golfers into your lineup. Also, I have a strange gut feel that the winning MM lineup will leave $1k or more on the table. In fact, I made one “first glance, gut instinct” lineup and left over $1.5k on the table. And I still feel great about that lineup.
The cheap seats are nothing more than the cheap seats. Major tourneys like the Open are when the top players really produce. The lower ranked, cheaper players generally aren’t real factors. So, keep that in mind when you are looking at the super cheap options here. At $6.5k and below, there is not one golfer that I like. And that is no weak statement as there are over 60 golfers in this price range. I can see some people taking a shot on Lucas Glover (name brand, been playing better recently) or some strong international names (Sterne, Stone), but these players just don’t appeal to me. I want players that it is not a stretch to see them finishing in the top 20.
That’s it for pricing. It will be interesting to see how my research on specific players makes their pricing look more or less enticing.