Naap's Week 5 Busts and Bold Predictions Week 6

Week 5 was pretty darn interesting. It seemed like guys either went insane or completely busted, which made the daily landscape about as ‘swingy’ as possible. So why did those top 5 running backs or top 10 wide receiver’s bust? Was it just the variances of a season, or was there any way to see it coming?

Before I start looking at the next week in the NFL, I like spending the first part of the week really looking at the week that was, and trying to figure out why games played out as they did and how to use that info down the road, not just in the next week’s game. Targets, carries, pass/run ratios, red zone targets, etc, all that info is about as valuable as it gets in fantasy football, so let’s look at some reasons why guys you (and me) had as locks to go off absolutely crapped the bed.

Week 5 BUSTS

!(right)http://tinyurl.com/9ftd6a3()!

How could you not trust that face? I think I had him on more teams than any other player. Anyone getting 20+ touches against the Panthers has to go for 100+ and a TD right? It was the perfect storm for Lynch. After watching Michael Turner go for over 100 on the ground on just 13 carries and adding almost 70 yds receiving with a TD, it seemed like we were just watching the preview of Lynch next week, and with 7+ more carries for Lynch and likely getting more receptions than Turner, what could possibly go wrong? Him getting under 10 points (FD scoring) is what went wrong. I’m pretty much chalking this one up to an ugly game between two teams who have no clue what they have or how to use it, and are going to put up weird, random numbers all year. I’m also giving the Panthers some credit for probably working all week on run D after being putrid the first 4 weeks, and making Wilson and not Lynch beat them. Keep riding Lynch.

Hard to consider getting over 100 yards from scrimmage a bust, but when it’s AP vs. the Titans and their bottom 5 rush D I think it is. He hasn’t scored in 4 weeks now, which is pretty concerning since he’s faced Indy, Detroit, and Tennessee in 3 of the last 4. Against top 10 rush D’s I might even consider sitting him in the future if you have a better option/matchup (for season leagues). I don’t know if his knee is still bothering him or he’s just been getting unlucky, but with Percy Harvin taking some of his goal-line work (got a 4-yd rush td last week), and defenses making Ponder beat them, it’s not looking great for Purple Jesus this year. His next 4 games are against WSH, ARI, TB, and SEA, all top 15 rush D’s, not to mention he gets the Bears twice and Houston once in the final 6 weeks. Don’t be surprised to see more bust weeks from him.

Hey Roddy, you’re doing it wrong, supposed to be looking at the ball and you know, catching it. Another I myself, and I’m sure many others, had a ton of after his monster game week 4. Going against a bottom 5 pass D and averaging over 9 targets a game through 4 weeks, made Roddy look like he was worth his relatively high price across the daily sites. If I had told you Matt Ryan had 52 pass attempts and the Falcons scored 3 tds, how could you not think Roddy got 100 and one of those TD’s? Well, he had under 70 yds and no td’s on just 6 targets, while Julio and T-Gonz each had 14 targets and big games. I’m sort of mad at myself for not seeing this one coming. With Roddy going bonkers last week, and Julio with a nagging hand injury, the ‘Skins pretty much had to focus on Roddy more than Julio. Next week the Falcons get Oakland (another bottom 5 pass D) coming off their bye, which is looking like an extremely high scoring game. Good luck trying to guess which Falcons receiver gets 150+ and 2 tds because one of them will. You have to hedge all of Ryan’s weapons across your games and sites because they will flip-flop all year and using just 1 of them in all of your games is pretty much Russian Roulette in the daily game.

Jordy Nelson

See Above. (just replace Ryan with Rodgers, Julio with James Jones, and T-Gonz with all other 7 Rodgers options)

Both had just 5 targets and got under 40 yards with no TD’s. Brady did only have 31 pass attempts, but 15 of them went to Welker, with the the rest spread out to 6 other receivers, all of which had 5 or less targets and under 40 yards. I can’t really blame Gronk on being a bust with his bad ankle and questionable tag coming in, but Lloyd is concerning. The Patriots had 54 rush attempts and 31 pass attempts, which is now 2 weeks in a row with more rushes than passes. Their run game is no joke with Ridley/Bolden/Woodhead and even Vereen getting a 1yd TD last week, and I’d expect them to continue this formula of grinding defenses down and then letting Brady punish them in the 2nd half. Yeah Bailey and Porter we’re covering Lloyd throughout the game, but this heavy run game is definitely something to think about before trying to guess which Pats receiver is going to get the targets each week.

Random “Bold Predictions” For Week 6

  • Darren McFadden will break the single game yards from scrimmage record. (Flipper Anderson currently holds the record with 336 in 1989).
  • Victor Cruz will be held under 5 catches and under 50 yards.
  • Colts will be the highest scoring defense.
  • William Powell will have a multi-td game and have over 70 yards rushing.

That’s all I got. Good luck in week 6 everyone.

-Naap

About the Author

  • Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan)

  • Erik Wardenburg, fantasy alias naapstermaan, has been playing fantasy sports since 2005 and DFS since 2010. He’s made multiple live finals in MLB, NBA, and NFL on a variety of sites and enjoys grinding small/medium stakes every day.

Comments

  • Jackandsoda

    2011 FFFC Finalist, 2011 DFBC Finalist, 2012 DSBC Finalist (x2), 2013 DSBC Finalist (x2)

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    Notorious pick Stephen-howling. You pick Powell. Hmmm…..

  • headChopper

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    Andrew Hawkins is money this week

  • csuram88

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    • x7

      2014 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

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    Run DMC better figure it out he has been the fantasy volemort so far this season. Haha nice column Naapsterman!

  • Jackandsoda

    2011 FFFC Finalist, 2011 DFBC Finalist, 2012 DSBC Finalist (x2), 2013 DSBC Finalist (x2)

    • 2011 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2011 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    At the risk of sounding stupid, wtf is a volemort?

  • headChopper

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    I think it’s a character from Harry Potter

  • sclement21

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    Hawkins coming off 13 targs and Joe Haden guna be strapped to AJ Green. Im on board, too.

  • csuram88

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    • x7

      2014 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

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    HAHA yes it is from Harry Potter …also a reference to the fantasy football podcast on ESPN. Lol and I am a Harry Potter nerd.

  • naapstermaan

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      2012 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    lol 0 for 6 on bold predictions. woooooooooo

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