NBA Fire and Ice 3/10: The Green Zone
Last night was a pretty fun 5 game slate. If we learned anything from it, Russell Westbrook should just be 100% owned on every slate moving forward. He is unstoppable. We also got to witness just how bad at defense Jahlil Okafor is as we watched Nurkic put up an 80 burger. Two nights in a row now we have had a guy in the 6K-7K range score over 70 points. Elfrid Payton two nights ago dropped 72 at only 6K in salary. Wasn’t that a fun night for those of us who didn’t have any shares of him. I should have saved my entry fees and purchased him an all inclusive paid trip to the barber shop. His hair has to be on the list of top 5 worst things I have ever seen, and I have seen some frightening sights.
The Green Zone
Money makes the world go ‘round. Anyone who tells you differently, is a liar. “Money can’t buy happiness” is just wrong. Sure it can’t buy it directly, but what it can buy is a jet ski. Have you ever seen anyone sad on a jet ski before? The answer is no, you haven’t. Money can also be referred to as “green”, hence why when we have an awesome night, our little circles and blue guys find the green zone. As much as I do love money though, I am actually here to tell you why money is my second favorite “Green” today….
Draymond Green – Payton two nights ago was 6K and put up 70 DK points. Nurkic last night was 7K and put up 80 DK points. So if this trend continues, we can expect an 8K player to put up over 70 points as well. Tonight, Draymond is 8K. Disclaimer: please don’t roster Draymond for this logic, just thought it was interesting to note that he trends with the top scorers from the last two nights. Anyways, back to the real reasons to play him. Draymond gets a matchup tonight with the T-Wolves. He is one of the most athletic stretch forwards in the league, and guarding him will be the unathletic big man in Gorgui Dieng. Dieng has really struggled against stretch forwards this year, and this task will be no easier for him. This is one of the few times where I will rely a little heavier than normal on previous games against an opponent due to the difference in athletic abilities between the two players. Last year, in 3 games, Green averaged 51.6 DK points per game versus the T-wolves. I use last year as the benchmark because this Golden State team is now more similar to last year’s makeup due to the loss of Durant. The Warriors are still trying to find their identity and are trying to hold off the Spurs for the one seed in the West. I think the starters will start to take on even bigger roles because they have been struggling recently. Draymond has elevated his play though since the first day they were without Durant. I think Green has a legit shot at a triple double tonight and I will be more than likely pushing the lock button on him tonight. Even if he doesn’t approach his 60 point tournament winning upside (what I legit think he has a shot at tonight), he will still produce a safe 40 point floor and wouldn’t destroy any lineups because he is priced at 8K.
Mason Plumlee – As long as Jokic continues to sit out, you can comfortably play Plumlee in all formats. In the two games Jokic has missed, Plumlee has 35 and 40 DK points. Not only that, but his matchup with the Celtics doesn’t get much better. Plumlee has the rebounding advantage over Horford here and in a high total game should get his normal allotment of shot attempts. He is still priced below 6K, and with the news that Noel isn’t playing tonight, there aren’t many other Centers in that range that I would consider, except for Greg Monroe and Myles Turner. Monroe has a higher ceiling, while Turner has a safer floor. Plumlee gives you the best of both worlds, but he also comes with the uncertainty of if he is starting tonight or not. As of right now it looks like Jokic isn’t playing, but he did participate in shootaround this morning so we will have to stay updated on the news. If we hear Jokic is playing before lock, I will be playing Monroe in tournaments over Plumlee.
Ricky Rubio – I will continue to write up Rubio until he sees a legitimate price increase. Right now he is playing at an elite level and is consistently offering a safe floor in the 40s, while at the same time offering triple double upside for scoring in the 50s. Tonight he gets a matchup with the Warriors, and Rubio will once again be facilitating this offense. If Dieng is struggling with defending Draymond, the Wolves could look to go a little smaller which would create a 3 man show of Rubio, Towns, and Wiggins on offense. This matchup and price point is too good to pass up for me, and can contribute to a nice game stack. Rubio is priced only $100 cheaper than Payton on DK which makes for an excellent pivot off of Payton. We can safely assume the masses will be game log hunting Payton and his ownership will skyrocket. If Vucevic plays, this should take a hit on Payton’s upside leaving the advantage to the Rubio owners.
Terrence Ross on FD – Ross is still $4500 on FD and is still seeing 35 minutes and chucking up 15 shots. Until his price rises, you have to play him over there.
Elfrid Payton – As mentioned when discussing Rubio, for game theory purposes you can definitely fade Payton and pivot to Rubio in tonight’s slate. Any time Elfrid Payton is going to be chalk, it is a scary thought. Payton has a 15 point floor and could bust a ton of teams if he has an off night. Especially if Vucevic returns tonight, that will cause Payton’s usage to go down.
Wesley Matthews and Yogi Ferrell – Outside of Seth Curry, the Dallas guard situation just got clear as mud. JJ Barea is making his return tonight and should eat into the minutes of Matthews and Ferrell, but mainly Ferrell. Ferrell has capped upside as it is, but with Barea back, his playing time takes a hit and he needs a big chunk of minutes to be able to produce tourney winning scores. Curry is the lone guard here who I think can stay hot and won’t be affected by the return of Barea. He too makes an interesting tournament play against a bad Brooklyn team. He is priced only $200 below Rubio and $300 below Payton, so his ownership should be very low tonight.
Outside of Payton and the Dallas guards situation, there aren’t many other guys who stand out as must fades for me on this slate. This appears to be a great slate to try multi entry if you are debating between that and single entry. There are a lot of guys in good spots, but I will be building around the ones I mentioned above.
As always, leave comments or feedback below. Best of luck tonight, and may Green take you to the green zone!