NBA Locks - Scares - Gambles for November

RG,

I’ve always wanted to try a blog for a certain slate, so I figured since I have time tonight I will give it a try. I hope you like it!

What I’ll do is I’ll be going through each the G position (PG and SG), F position (SF and PF) and C position and list who I think is a LOCK, who SCARES me, and who is a GAMBLE that could pay off with reasons/justification behind each pick.

I will also be categorizing by price range which is the following:

HIGH: Salaries of $8000 and up
MID: Salaries of $5000-$7900
LOW: Salaries of $4900 or less

Just to clarify one more time, this is what each term means:

LOCK – Guys I think we can plug in safely and expect a big night.
SCARES – Guys that will be heavily discussed but to be weary of the hype (tread lightly so to speak)
GAMBLES – Guys that will be over looked but could win you a GPP.

  • This is for DRAFTKINGS pricing.

Guard

Locks:
High – Harden
Mid – Ingram
Low – Clarkson

  • Harden in a great matchup vs. the No Defense Cavaliers, need I say more? \
  • I love Ingram tonight (SG/SF, listing as SG here) but nonetheless Wizards struggle against athletic wings (rank DEAD LAST against SF in DEF vs. POS)..
  • As for Clarkson, is Draftkings trying to mess with us with his pricing? Until he’s over 5k he should be an automatic lock with his usage and ability.

Scares:
High – Westbrook
Mid – Holiday
Low – Hield

  • Westbrook is in a good matchup against DEN who isn’t great at defending PG’s.. the problem is, OKC looks like a real disaster in the making. They just lost to SACRAMENTO! While he’s now in the 10k’s, I’m struggling to put Westbrook in my lineup until he’s under 10k (can’t believe I’m saying that)…..
  • Holiday hasn’t been performing well AT ALL the last couple games and TOR is the 7th best at defending PG’s — NO THANKS ON HOLIDAY!
  • Lastly, Hield just had a solid performance off the bench vs. OKC. Philadelphia ranks DEAD LAST against SG’s so the recency bias will be real tonight. The problem? He has maybe the most one-dimensional game in the league. If his shot isn’t falling, well, good luck. FADE!

Gambles:
High – Wall
Mid – Lowry
Low – Korver

  • Wall’s price is slowly dropping and in a fast paced game against the Lakers tonight.. they also just lost to the Lakers a couple weeks back, revenge narrative will be serious. With so much emphasis on the super high priced guys (Davis, LeBron, Harden etc) Wall may be the perfect sleeper pick tonight.
  • Lowry is definitely a gamble as he’s facing the 4th PG-defending team in NO. However, it’ll be a fast paced game and Lowry is slowly starting to turn it on. He’s going to have a 50 fantasy point outburst soon and at 7k we’ll all be saying “why didn’t we play him?” Tonight might be the night!
  • I don’t love Korver by any means, but I could easily see the HOU/CLE game turning into a jack fest.. No D-Rose tonight so the Cavs will slide LeBron over to PG and open up more minutes at other positions.. 2 out of the last 4 games Korver has looked good, I could easily see him coming across at a very respectable 25-28 fantasy point night which at his price tag is 7x.

Forward:

Locks:
High – Davis
Mid – Derozan
Low – Markieff Morris

  • With so much emphasis on LeBron and Harden tonight, will Davis go overlooked? He just put up a 70 burger last game and is priced at a very fair 11k.. I think he’ll go lower owned than usual tonight and is in a good spot to drop 70-80 fantasy points as long as he doesn’t injure himself tying his shoes.
  • It’s hard for me to label DeRozan as a lock because I know how volatile he can be at times.. With that said, I’m seeing a fast paced game and NO isn’t great at defending SG’s.. Same thing with Lowry – at 7k one (or both) of them is going to put up 50+ fantasy points soon and we’re all gonna wish we would have played them at that price!
  • Morris creeped near 30 minutes last game and now is in a fast paced game.. Lakers also are in the bottom 8 at defending PF’s. At 4400 Morris is a lock for me.

Scares:
High – Simmons
Mid – K Love
Low – Saric

  • Everyone keeps talking about Simmons and the hype is undoubtedly justified. With Embiid back the usage will go down a little and the Kings are (surprisingly) in the top 3 at defending SF’s this season. Granted, we all know Simmons is more of a PG but the Kings haven’t been awful at defending PG’s either (look at Westrbook last game). I’m still going to have exposure, but I’m treading lightly.
  • K-Love.. my man.. He finally went off last game and it was long overdue.. The recency bias will be in full effect and at $7400 the masses will be flooding to roster him. The problem(s)? How often does Kevin Love put 2 monster performances up back to back? Oh, and Houston is in the top 10 at defending PF’s. Sure, Love may be labeled as a “Center,” but I guarantee you he stands outside to pull Capela away from the rim tonight.. be cautious!
  • Saric is playing better, especially with Embiid out. Embiid is back so that will cut into the minutes/usage a good bit. At his price he’s still definitely in play, but other than just a couple games he’s had quite the disappointing season. Recency bias will have people all over him as well…. I’m off him tonight.

Gambles:
High – Cousins
Mid – Melo
Low – Ibaka

  • Cousins is a guy who’s name isn’t popping up anywhere for me.. He could easily be the top scorer on the slate tonight and do we really feel that Valanciunas can contain him? I don’t. Wouldn’t shock me at all if either he or AD puts up 70+ tonight (or both?)
  • Melo is an interesting play tonight.. His price is lower than we’ve maybe ever seen it on DK (and justifiably so with his performances since joining OKC). He’s getting frustrated with his ejection against Portland (what a joke that was) and another tech against SAC the other night.. Denver is the SECOND WORST at defending SF’s, so it wouldn’t shock me if Carmelo drops a 50 burger at his former home tonight.
  • Ibaka is down to a measly 4700 now, and should be.. but with the twin towers of Cousins/Davis coming in tonight Ibaka NEEDS to be on the floor to rebound and bang bodies with those guys. He should see upwards towards 30 minutes and has good shot blocking / rebounding capabilities with occasional 3’s… He’s a good gamble tonight.

Centers:

Locks:
High – Embiid
Mid – Adams
Low – Randle

  • Embiid is back and now facing a young Kings teams that ranks DEAD LAST against Centers.. I know his minutes are still monitored but at 8k he’s DEFINITELY capable of 50-60 fantasy points, even on limited minutes. Locked in!
  • I really like Adams tonight and he isn’t really being discussed with the many stud Centers playing tonight.. and yes, DEN surprisingly ranks pretty good against C’s.. However, Adams is going to have to play significant minutes to guard Jokic.. Jokic may pull him out to the 3pt line some which could effect Adams rebounding #‘s, but he’s going to play A LOT of minutes tonight.. They just lost to SAC and Donovan barely played Adams in the 4th (how stupid is that?) Changes will have to be made tonight. More of a gut feeling but — LOCK!
  • Randle’s price is too low and his role is too significant to not play heavily tonight. Fast paced game, 30+ fantasy point potential, I like him a lot.. LOCK!

Scares:
High – Jokic maybe?
Mid – Capela
Low – Valanciunas

  • I guess I’ll say Jokic is a scare solely because after his recent performance DFS players will be flocking to him.. I’ll definitely have a few pieces.. but I could also see Westbrook driving / Adams posting up getting Jokic into some foul trouble which would take down a huge chunk of the field.. He doesn’t scare me really that much, but someone had to fit into the high category here.
  • Capela will most likely be guarding Love when he’s in.. Love will pull him out to the 3 point line which hurts rebounding.. We also don’t know if Capela will play 15 or 30 minutes (who the hell knows?).. I’m wayyyyyyyyyyy off of Capela.
  • Valanciunas at his price is definitely a consideration especially since he got more minutes last game.. However, he’s most likely guarding Cousins tonight and I don’t see that fairing too well. Expect quick and early foul trouble.

Gambles:
High – Cousins
Mid – Randolph
Low – Ibaka

  • I know I already labeled Cousins at the PF Gamble spot, but there’s only so many high priced centers tonight.. See above description on Cousins to know why I like him as a gamble tonight!
  • Randolph is starting to play better and comes in at $5200… his last 3 games are 27 FP, 29 FP, and 33.5 FP.. PHI is 2nd to WORST at defending the center position.. He’s definitely worth a look and could win you a GPP!
  • I already mentioned him earlier in the PF conversation.. Cousins/Davis coming to town, Ibaka is going to HAVE to be on the floor to defend and rebound with those guys. Gut feeling is he puts up 30+ FP tonight at only $4700.. Worth a gamble!

Alright guys, that’s it for now.. I haven’t checked injury news the last couple hours so if someone relevant sits than obviously some of this could change.. Hopefully you all enjoy and it helps you ship the big bucks tonight!

About the Author

Comments

  • hanyo66

    great post, much appreciated!

  • themolt

    like the format of this article. thanks!

  • brannigan73

    Given there dumb prices on DK Simmons and Embiid should both be locked in imo. The worse Simmons can do is 40 points. He gets way too many rebounds and assists and he always scores at least 12-14 points and multiple defensive stats. His usage might take a hit but even when Embiid plays he is using a ridiculous amount of possessions. There is no reason he should be 9 on DK he is very close to a 10k guy.

  • osuryanf

    @brannigan73 said...

    Given there dumb prices on DK Simmons and Embiid should both be locked in imo. The worse Simmons can do is 40 points. He gets way too many rebounds and assists and he always scores at least 12-14 points and multiple defensive stats. His usage might take a hit but even when Embiid plays he is using a ridiculous amount of possessions. There is no reason he should be 9 on DK he is very close to a 10k guy.

    I agree, I guess I’m always expecting a rookie regression at some point but with his ability it may not occur.

  • osuryanf

    Thanks for the comments guys!

  • pbr713

    Well done! Really like how you presented the info. Look forward to reading again.

  • floridast33

    Enjoyed the write up brother.

  • Inujv87

    Great blog! Concise info presented in a way that people can absorb easily.

    Keep Grinding!

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