NBA Projections 3.13.14

Wow. Last night was awesome. After watching Kyle Singler post a miserable 6.1 I put down fanduel pretty discouraged and began to play FIFA 14. After a few games and a shower I decided to check back with fanduel and found myself sitting in fifth in a $2 qualifier for Fanduel’s DFBBC. Needless to say, with the help of Blake Griffin, I ended up winning a ticket to the DFBBC with my $2 entry ($200 value). I was thrilled. I also placed 58th in Fanduel’s NBA Shot which was my highest since the beginning of the NBA season when I finished 3rd. This has been 3 out of the last 4 nights where I have had a player score single digits and still hit over 300. The 300+ streak is cool but I could do without the single digit player for once.

Tonight we have a short slate, but interesting slate. One of the Best offenses going against one of the worst defenses. One of the other best offenses going against one of the best defenses. And lastly one of the most injury-ridden teams going against another injury-ridden team. My projections are gonna be “duh?” today due to the OKC-LAL game but lets get to it.

Quick Review:

  • Needs = What fantasy total they need to meet value.
  • Projection = How many fantasy points my spreadsheet projects them to finish with.
  • Difference = The difference in their projected total and what they need to reach value.
  • Score = Their projection with salary factored in. a “bang for your buck” type statistic.
  • P= Probable; Q = Questionable; O=Out;

Name Injury FPPG OPP DvP Salary Needs Projected Total Difference Score
Kevin Durant 50.3 LAL 1.38 12,000 60 69.2 9.2 39.9
Russell Westbrook 48.7 LAL 1.21 8,700 43.5 58.8 15.3 39.8
Serge Ibaka 40.1 LAL 1.27 8,200 41 50.9 9.9 31.6
James Harden 51.9 CHI 0.94 10,000 50 49 -1 24
Ryan Kelly 32 OKC 0.99 4,500 22.5 31.7 9.2 22.4
Brandon Knight 32.3 ATL 1.06 7,400 37 34.2 -2.8 15.8
Jimmy Butler 32.1 HOU 1.01 6,700 33.5 32.3 -1.2 15.6
Joakim Noah 41.1 HOU 0.91 9,300 46.5 37.6 -8.9 15.2
Jodie Meeks 26.3 OKC 1.12 5,800 29 29.4 0.4 14.9
Khris Middleton 28.7 ATL 0.95 5,300 26.5 27.3 0.8 14.1
Paul Millsap 32 MIL 1.06 8,200 41 33.9 -7.1 14
DeMarre Carroll 22.2 MIL 1.23 5,800 29 27.3 -1.7 12.8
Chandler Parsons 32.5 CHI 0.92 7,100 35.5 29.7 -5.8 12.5
Ersan Ilyasova Q 24.8 ATL 1.03 5,600 28 25.6 -2.4 11.7
Zaza Pachulia 17.7 ATL 1.19 4,100 20.5 21.1 0.6 10.8
Ramon Sessions 22.1 ATL 1.06 5,100 25.5 23.4 -2.1 10.7
Dwight Howard 30.1 CHI 1.01 8,800 44 30.5 -13.5 10.6
Pau Gasol P 34 OKC 0.89 8,800 44 30.3 -13.7 10.4
Kendall Marshall 24 OKC 1.03 5,900 29.5 24.7 -4.8 10.3
Taj Gibson 22 HOU 1.14 6,200 31 24.9 -6.1 10
Kyle Korver 22.9 MIL 0.97 5,000 25 22.2 -2.8 9.9
D.J. Augustin 27.7 HOU 0.86 5,800 29 23.9 -5.1 9.8
Jeff Adrien 21.9 ATL 0.95 4,500 22.5 20.9 -1.6 9.7
John Henson 20.8 ATL 1.03 4,900 24.5 21.5 -3 9.4
Caron Butler 14.2 LAL 1.38 4,300 21.5 19.5 -2 8.9
Reggie Jackson 18 LAL 1.21 5,400 27 21.8 -5.2 8.8
Kent Bazemore 18.6 OKC 1.12 4,900 24.5 20.7 -3.8 8.8
Pero Antic 18.1 MIL 1.05 4,300 21.5 19.1 -2.4 8.5
Nate Wolters 16.4 ATL 1.06 3,600 18 17.4 -0.6 8.4
Xavier Henry 16.7 OKC 1.12 4,100 20.5 18.6 -1.9 8.4
Derek Fisher 14 LAL 1.21 3,500 17.5 16.9 -0.6 8.2
Jordan Farmar 19.1 OKC 1.03 5,200 26 19.7 -6.3 7.5
Elton Brand 18.5 MIL 1.06 5,300 26.5 19.6 -6.9 7.3
Wesley Johnson 18.5 OKC 0.99 5,100 25.5 18.4 -7.1 6.6
Cartier Martin 12 MIL 1.23 3,500 17.5 14.8 -2.7 6.2
Francisco Garcia 15.6 CHI 0.94 3,500 17.5 14.7 -2.8 6.2
Carlos Boozer 16.1 HOU 1.14 5,600 28 18.3 -9.7 6
Jeremy Lin 18.1 CHI 0.89 4,500 22.5 16.2 -6.3 5.8
Mike Dunleavy 15.6 HOU 1.05 4,800 24 16.4 -7.6 5.6
Kirk Hinrich 15.8 HOU 0.86 3,800 19 13.6 -5.4 4.9
Shelvin Mack 16.3 MIL 0.84 3,900 19.5 13.6 -5.9 4.8
Terrence Jones 18.2 CHI 0.88 5,600 28 16 -12 4.6
Robert Sacre 12.9 OKC 0.98 3,500 17.5 12.6 -4.9 4.6
Jeff Teague 20.9 MIL 0.84 6,800 34 17.5 -16.5 4.5
MarShon Brooks 11.2 OKC 1.12 3,500 17.5 12.4 -5.1 4.4
Patrick Beverley 16.2 CHI 0.89 5,100 25.5 14.5 -11 4.1
Omer Asik 11.4 CHI 1.01 3,500 17.5 11.5 -6 3.8
Steven Adams 7.1 LAL 1.14 3,500 17.5 8.1 -9.4 1.9

Plays to Play

  • Obviously if you can fit Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka comfortable into your lineup then go for it. Even with a blowout they should all reach value early. I can see them having 70 points (as a team, not fantasy points) by halftime.
  • Westbrook and Knight are your best bets at point but if you are looking for cheaper options other than Teague all you really have is Patrick Beverley and D.J. Augustin. Neither of these are offensive power houses and both are pretty good playing D.
  • SG and PF are tossups after Harden, IBaka, and Millsap. Having trouble picking those positions.
  • After Durant at SF your best options are DeMarre Carroll, Ryan Kelly, Khris Middleton, Caron Butler. I like them in that order.
  • As for C: If you’re as nervous as I am about Noah and D12 going head to head, then your only option is Pero Antic unless Ilyasova is out. Then Zaza Pachulia becomes a punt. But I will most likely not be playing Steven Adams. Even if he gets garbage time there are just too many better scoring options for the Thunder than him.

Like, Comment, Enjoy.

Good Luck tonight!

atfrost

About the Author

Comments

  • shortyb12

    2012 DFBC Finalist

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    your articles are great . nice job last night.

  • shortyb12

    2012 DFBC Finalist

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    your articles are great . nice job last night.

  • BreakingBacon

    Great work. Why Gibson so low given the juicy matchup and consistent minutes?

  • jboy119

    Does your analysis consider a blowout situation or assume players get their normal minutes?

  • Phatjer300

    im nervous too about noah, last night i had not 1 but 2 single digits plays. missed out on cashing buy 15 in the early and reg. slam crazy low scoring, tonight will be high 300-310 LTC i predict

  • Shaps29

    Good analysis. You like carroll more then Kelly but Kelly is cheaper and you project him scoring more pts?

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    thanks shortyb!

    Bacon- Gibson is low because he hast hit value in 6 games. But I do like his matchup and I wouldn’t shy away from him solely based on that.

    Jboy- it assumes normal minutes.

    Phatjer- yeah I don’t gorse myself playing either center from the rockets-bulls game.

    Shaps- yea my projection have Kelly up but I like Carroll’s consistency more. I’ll probably be going Kelly though so I can afford Westbrook and Knight but if i were going low at PG like with Reggie Jackson then i would play Carroll.

  • draggin49

    I’m stuck between middleton/carroll

  • FrozenTundra12

    carroll over middleton, middleton misses to many shots

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Agreed

  • Tclopper9

    Thanks For Help Tonight. Closing in on being best night ever

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Congratulations, Tclopper9! Glad I could help!

  • ballahollic2

    Really great! The only articles I look forward to!

  • liveride

    Durant was a relative bust, but that’s the chance we take with a blowout.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).