NBA Projections 3.19.14

I don’t know about you guys, but after Lebron had plus 40fp at the half of a surprisingly close game yesterday, I was expecting a plus 80 finish. I think it was the first time I have ever been disappointed with 67 fantasy points! How greedy of me.

Jeff Teague was safely the surprise of the night. Never expected that performance from someone on the back end of a back-to-back and being guarded by Kyle Lowry. I also completely regret not suggesting/taking Robin Lopez. I just expected a blowout in that game and him to take a backseat.

Oh well, ya win some ya lose most. Let’s move onto today’s big slate. There’s ten games so I’m gonna list the Top 100 players.

Quick Review:

  • Needs = What fantasy total they need to meet value.
  • Projection = How many fantasy points my spreadsheet projects them to finish with.
  • Difference = The difference in their projected total and what they need to reach value.
  • Score = Their projection with salary factored in. a “bang for your buck” type statistic.
  • P= Probable; Q = Questionable; O=Out;

Name Injury FPPG OPP DvP Salary Needs Projected Total Difference Score
Anthony Davis 61.6 TOR 0.92 10,700 53.5 56.8 3.3 30.2
Kevin Love 48.2 DAL 1.16 11,300 56.5 56.1 -0.4 27.9
Joakim Noah 44.9 PHI 1.09 9,300 46.5 48.7 2.2 25.5
Kenneth Faried 40 DET 1.07 7,200 36 42.8 6.8 25.4
Greg Monroe 36.9 DEN 1.2 7,700 38.5 44.2 5.7 25.3
Kawhi Leonard 27.9 LAL 1.39 6,400 32 38.6 6.6 23.3
Ryan Kelly 31.7 SAS 1.03 4,700 23.5 32.5 9 22.5
Kyle Lowry 42.2 NOR 1.05 9,100 45.5 44.3 -1.2 21.5
LeBron James 44.1 BOS 1.06 10,500 52.5 46.9 -5.6 20.9
Tim Duncan 29.3 LAL 1.38 7,800 39 40.4 1.4 20.9
Jodie Meeks 31.1 SAS 1.11 5,800 29 34.6 5.6 20.6
Kris Humphries 30.5 MIA 1.07 5,400 27 32.5 5.5 19.6
Manu Ginobili 26.2 LAL 1.18 4,900 24.5 30.9 6.4 19.4
Al Jefferson 39.6 BKN 1.06 9,700 48.5 41.9 -6.6 18.1
Tony Parker 25.4 LAL 1.28 6,100 30.5 32.7 2.2 17.5
Carmelo Anthony 44 IND 0.95 10,200 51 41.7 -9.3 17.1
Patrick Patterson O 28.7 NOR 1.01 4,900 24.5 28.9 4.4 17
P.J. Tucker 25.9 ORL 1.2 5,900 29.5 31.2 1.7 16.5
Andrew Bynum O 23.4 NYK 1.21 5,000 25 28.3 3.3 16
Ty Lawson 37.3 DET 1 8,800 44 37.3 -6.7 15.8
Kelly Olynyk 19.7 MIA 1.29 4,200 21 25.4 4.4 15.3
Jameer Nelson 25.7 PHO 1.18 6,000 30 30.3 0.3 15.3
Michael Carter-Williams 35 CHI 0.95 7,300 36.5 33.1 -3.4 15
Kevin Martin 28.6 DAL 1.08 6,500 32.5 30.8 -1.7 14.6
Dwyane Wade Q 35.5 BOS 0.94 8,100 40.5 33.4 -7.1 13.8
Jose Calderon 23 MIN 1.17 5,300 26.5 27 0.5 13.7
Ricky Rubio 31 DAL 0.98 6,800 34 30.3 -3.7 13.5
Rajon Rondo Q 35.3 MIA 0.93 7,900 39.5 32.7 -6.8 13.5
Marc Gasol 32.3 UTA 0.96 7,200 36 31.1 -4.9 13.4
Deron Williams 30.1 CHA 1.01 7,000 35 30.5 -4.5 13.3
Amir Johnson 27.6 NOR 1.01 5,900 29.5 27.8 -1.7 13.1
Mike Dunleavy 20.1 PHI 1.27 5,000 25 25.5 0.5 13
Brandon Jennings 28 DEN 1.05 6,600 33 29.3 -3.7 13
Josh Smith 32.5 DEN 1.01 8,300 41.5 32.7 -8.8 12.9
Thaddeus Young 36.4 CHI 0.9 8,300 41.5 32.6 -8.9 12.8
Kirk Hinrich 18.8 PHI 1.22 4,100 20.5 22.9 2.4 12.8
Jonas Valanciunas Q 23.8 NOR 1.07 5,100 25.5 25.5 0 12.8
Amar’e Stoudemire 27.4 IND 0.95 5,300 26.5 25.9 -0.6 12.7
Zach Randolph 28.9 UTA 1.02 6,900 34.5 29.6 -4.9 12.7
Chris Bosh 30.3 BOS 0.97 6,800 34 29.3 -4.7 12.7
D.J. Augustin 22.1 PHI 1.22 5,800 29 26.9 -2.1 12.5
Shaun Livingston 22.9 CHA 1.01 4,300 21.5 23.2 1.7 12.5
J.J. Hickson 24.9 DET 1.05 5,500 27.5 26.1 -1.4 12.4
George Hill 24.8 NYK 1.01 5,100 25.5 25.1 -0.4 12.3
Joe Johnson 27.9 CHA 0.91 5,300 26.5 25.5 -1 12.2
J.R. Smith 29.9 IND 0.88 5,800 29 26.4 -2.6 12
Mike Conley 28.5 UTA 0.99 6,600 33 28.2 -4.8 12
Tim Hardaway Jr. 20 IND 1.07 3,900 19.5 21.5 2 11.8
Henry Sims 23.7 CHI 0.96 4,400 22 22.8 0.8 11.8
Iman Shumpert 19.3 IND 1.07 3,700 18.5 20.7 2.2 11.6
Derrick Favors 29.9 MEM 0.92 6,600 33 27.5 -5.5 11.4
Monta Ellis 30.7 MIN 0.93 7,200 36 28.5 -7.5 11.3
Paul George 36.7 NYK 0.84 8,500 42.5 30.9 -11.6 11.3
Jared Sullinger 25.1 MIA 1.07 6,400 32 26.8 -5.2 11.2
Markieff Morris 25.8 ORL 1 6,000 30 25.9 -4.1 11.2
Trey Burke 23.9 MEM 1.04 5,600 28 24.9 -3.1 11.1
Tobias Harris 27.6 PHO 1.01 7,000 35 27.9 -7.1 11.1
Kemba Walker 34.1 BKN 0.87 7,900 39.5 29.6 -9.9 11.1
Boris Diaw 16.3 LAL 1.38 4,600 23 22.5 -0.5 11
Roy Hibbert 19.4 NYK 1.21 5,000 25 23.5 -1.5 11
DeMar DeRozan 30.6 NOR 0.95 7,700 38.5 29.1 -9.4 11
Tyreke Evans 37.2 TOR 0.79 7,900 39.5 29.3 -10.2 10.9
Dirk Nowitzki 29.8 MIN 0.95 7,400 37 28.4 -8.6 10.9
Pau Gasol 35.7 SAS 0.85 8,700 43.5 30.2 -13.3 10.5
Eric Bledsoe 28.7 ORL 0.94 7,100 35.5 27.1 -8.4 10.3
Marco Belinelli 17.6 LAL 1.18 4,200 21 20.7 -0.3 10.2
Taj Gibson 22.7 PHI 1.08 5,900 29.5 24.5 -5 10.2
Jeff Green 27.4 MIA 0.95 6,600 33 25.9 -7.1 10.2
Brian Roberts 20.8 TOR 1.06 4,800 24 21.9 -2.1 10
Timofey Mozgov 19.5 DET 1.05 4,200 21 20.4 -0.6 10
Tony Wroten 24.4 CHI 0.95 5,400 27 23.1 -3.9 9.9
Danny Green 0 18.5 LAL 1.18 4,800 24 21.7 -2.3 9.8
Nikola Vucevic 30.2 PHO 0.89 7,400 37 26.9 -10.1 9.8
Andre Drummond O 26.8 DEN 1.03 7,900 39.5 27.6 -11.9 9.7
Maurice Harkless 21.5 PHO 0.99 4,700 23.5 21.3 -2.2 9.6
Wilson Chandler 20.3 DET 1.12 5,600 28 22.8 -5.2 9.3
Goran Dragic 28.1 ORL 0.96 7,800 39 26.9 -12.1 9.2
Channing Frye 21.5 ORL 1 5,100 25.5 21.6 -3.9 9.2
Chris Andersen 19.7 BOS 0.97 4,000 20 19.1 -0.9 9.1
Carlos Boozer 21 PHI 1.08 5,700 28.5 22.7 -5.8 9
Lance Stephenson 25.9 NYK 0.98 7,200 36 25.2 -10.8 8.8
Corey Brewer 22.8 DAL 0.9 4,900 24.5 20.6 -3.9 8.7
David West 29.5 NYK 0.82 6,800 34 24.2 -9.8 8.6
Greivis Vasquez 17.8 NOR 1.05 4,100 20.5 18.7 -1.8 8.5
Aaron Brooks 19.3 DET 1 4,400 22 19.3 -2.7 8.5
Kent Bazemore 18.3 SAS 1.11 4,900 24.5 20.4 -4.1 8.5
Samuel Dalembert 15.8 MIN 1.15 3,900 19.5 18.2 -1.3 8.4
Kyle Singler 18.4 DEN 1.01 4,200 21 18.6 -2.4 8.2
Josh McRoberts 22.2 BKN 0.91 5,000 25 20.2 -4.8 8.2
Jimmy Butler 24.6 PHI 0.94 6,600 33 23.1 -9.9 8.1
Devin Harris 20.1 MIN 0.93 4,300 21.5 18.6 -2.9 8.1
Tiago Splitter 19.2 LAL 1.01 4,700 23.5 19.4 -4.1 8
Kyle O’Quinn 21.8 PHO 0.89 4,700 23.5 19.4 -4.1 8
Tony Allen 16.7 UTA 1.14 4,600 23 19.1 -3.9 8
Enes Kanter 24.5 MEM 0.87 5,800 29 21.2 -7.8 7.8
Jerryd Bayless 20.3 MIA 0.93 4,700 23.5 18.8 -4.7 7.5
Rodney Stuckey 15.9 DEN 1.02 3,500 17.5 16.2 -1.3 7.5
Gordon Hayward 29.2 MEM 0.77 6,900 34.5 22.6 -11.9 7.4
Terrence Ross 19.2 NOR 0.95 4,500 22.5 18.3 -4.2 7.4
Victor Oladipo 23 PHO 0.95 6,500 32.5 21.8 -10.7 7.3

Stud Plays

  • The big decision most of you will be faced with today is: Do I take Kevin Love or Anthony Davis at PF? Love plays the weaker opponent and should be well rested, while Anthony Davis plays team on the second game of a back-to-back where the first one went into overtime. In all honesty, I can’t even pick which one I like more. That decision will come to me at around 6:30pm ET tonight.
  • Greg Monroe and Kenneth Faried are two other high-end PFs who will be guarding and scoring on each other all night. Good choices if you are not feeling the aforementioned studs.
  • Joakim Noah – Noah should be able to out gun anyone trying to battle him for boards in Philly tonight. Double-double lock even in a blowout.
  • Al Jefferson – Because he’s Al Jefferson.
  • Unfortunately there are no high-dollar PGs, SGs, or SFs that I’m big on enough to write about today.

Value Plays

  • Kawhi Leonard and Ryan Kelly – Two SFs in the same game. I like both of these. Ryan Kelly has really picked up his game lately and Kawhi Leonard has the greatest matchup in terms of DvP tonight. I’ll be taking atleast one of these.
  • Tony Parker – Another Spur. Should have some luck tonight against who ever will be guarding him.
  • Boston Bigs – If you want to take a gamble in a GPP tonight then you may want to look towards Olynyk, Humphries, or Sullinger. They’ll be facing Miami after Miami just played last night.
  • Jodie Meeks – Another Lake that I may be plugging in tonight.
  • Mike Dunleavy – Another person who could make an interesting GPP play. And Jimmy “Minutes” Butler is never an awful play.
  • Jose Calderon – He’ll see 30+ minutes and has a plus matchup against Ricky Rubio tonight.
  • PJ Tucker – Facing Orlando after Orlando just got worked by the Warriors last night. Nice GPP upside.

Good Luck tonight!

Like, Comment, Enjoy.

atfrost

About the Author

Comments

  • Hatchins

    Not trusting Kawhi or pretty much any Spur tonight.

  • mikaryke

    How do you formulate your projections? I think you are right on with most, but I disagree on Amir Johnson and Demar Derozan. I like both of them to have big games tonight against the Pelicans weak defense, especially if Jonas V. is declared out. Also think Lawson is a much better play than your projections- Brandon Jennings is horrendous on defense and you always should target a point guard in a high paced game, high scoring game like DET-DEN will be. I also would not play any Spurs starters tonight with so many other games on tap. Nice work/effort put in though

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Mikaryke – Lawson actually has one of the better projections. He’s projected to reach almost 38. However, 38 isn’t that good considering you will be paying $8,800. If you’re looking for my actually projected fantasy points for them that’s under “projected total”, the “score” is a separate equation measuring “bang for your buck”. In terms of Amir and Derozan, my formula does not factor in if other people are out or if there is a blowout. It also assumes normal minutes. NOR is actually above average against SGs as well so that affects Derozan’s Projection. In terms of Spurs, I like them as GPP plays. I never trust any Spur besides Duncan in H2Hs or 50/50s.

  • mikaryke

    attfrost, thanks for your explanation…makes sense. Actually like Lowry a bit better than Derozan anyway. Amir will be a good play based on Jonas if he sits out but otherwise an OK play. I do think Lawson scores around 43 with potential for a 50+ in this game but we shall see. I agree with Spurs in GPP only, I just think I am going to avoid that one altogether tonight with other options I like better (except maybe Mills & Belinelli) Anyway you have the other good blog on this site (have to consider mine as well right? ha)

  • fredvr223

    Agree with fading spurs starters in GPP. You may miss a big game at times, but it is too hard to predict.

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Mikaryke – haha thanks. Mills is a good choice if Parker gets Popped. I still like Ryan Kelly in that game. Just a gut feeling. Amir made me mad last night with his low total in such a high scoring game but I will definitely be considering home tonight if JVal sits. But it’ll be hard to insert him considering possible fatigue and the other better matchups at the PF position on fanduel. I’m really big on Greg Monroe tonight.

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