NBA Today - Damian Lillard edition
I am taking a new approach to NBA DFS in 2020. More analytics, less instinct and slightly broader player pools. I remain almost exclusively a single lineup per night player; however, I realize that I have hurt my results by not at least considering every game on the slate. I will continue to cross out games and players, but only after giving that game environment and most likely game script serious consideration. This blog will attempt to capture my thought process and new robust analytical approach to every day’s NBA slate. My natural humor and cynicism can’t be contained, so that will remain a hallmark of my writing. That being said, numbers win the day. Please ping me with any comments you may have on the blog.
Damian Lillard. That’s all I have to say. He was probably the bright spot on MLK Jr. Day yesterday. It certainly wasn’t Orange McFattie (you know who that is) who made the day all about himself. Lillard showed up and showed out against the Warriors last night. 61 points. Pretty epic. You know what else is epic? I went to bed about 10pm with Jaxson Hayes, Kevin Love and Julius Randle having done nothing and only Kendrick Nunn putting up good numbers for my Fanduel lineup in the $7.77 Shot. I also had Hayes on Yahoo, but that lineup also had a couple OKC players, so that could have been ok. In other words, I went to bed feeling like I was being bagled on MLK day. Fast forward to this morning. I wake up and check ESPN. The Dame Lillard headlines hit me and immediately my spirits rise. Maybe I have a chance. Check Fanduel. Scored over 340 points and cashed in the Shot. Check Yahoo and see I’ve made a 150% ROI on my small entry fees. Didn’t play DK last night as I didn’t like the way they broke up the slate. All in all a good MLK day in DFS and one in which I wondered yet again what is actually going on in our country.
So, we get a one game slate tonight. Not really anything to break down. Play Luka and Kawhi and if you pick the MVP right, you’ll probably cash. Actually, it isn’t that simple, but I don’t know what real analysis can be helpful tonight. Play if you want, get lucky with a low owned cheapie and win some money. I am already locking in on tomorrow night’s NBA slate. Let’s take a quick look ahead one day and see what themes might be important tomorrow night.
1) It is a 12 game slate and I could see 11 of them being relatively high scoring. This probably won’t happen, but only the Thunder/Magic game strikes me as a slow, lower scoring game. This could lead to some nice high DFS scores tomorrow night.
2) The Clippers might be a big shorthanded versus the Hawks. Kawhi is unlikely to play in the BTB. And if Paul George does make his return tomorrow night, no doubt his minutes will be limited given he has been dealing with a hamstring injury. As such, guys like Lou Will and Montrezl Harrell could be in great spots and are priced reasonably, especially on FD.
3) KAT looks to be back. KAT is back up into the mid-30’s minutes and he gets the Bulls tomorrow night. In case you have forgotten, the Bulls are terrible against Centers. KAT might be expensive (north of $10k on FD), but could be a priority spend up on the slate.
4) Say hello to Zion Williamson! Zion will play for the first time this regular season. Zion will get the start and gets a decent matchup versus the Spurs. His minutes restriction sounds like it will be between 20-30 minutes. Given this game is at home and Alvin Gentry always does the wrong thing with rotations, I will not be surprised if Zion plays close to the 30 minute mark. He is less than $5k on FanDuel. Do the math and he looks like he could be a tasty play tomorrow.
5) FanDuel hates Donovan Mitchell. I believe Mitchell is priced at either $6.2k or $6.3k for the matchup with the Warriors tomorrow. That continues to be way too cheap. Mike Conley is old and not a factor. Dame just put up a monster number from the PG position. I love Mitchell here.
6) Philly/Toronto could be a sneaky high scoring and competitive game. Philly is a bit shorthanded. Toronto is fully healthy. Both teams play good defense, but can be pulled into shootouts. This game has that feel to me . Love running Ben Simmons and bringing it back with Kyle Lowry, who always seems to play well against the Sixers.
That’s it for tonight. Tomorrow’s slate should be fun. Enjoy playing lineups tonight that tie with 500 other people and good luck in any contests you play.