NBA Today - February 11
I am taking a new approach to NBA DFS in 2020. More analytics, less instinct and slightly broader player pools. I remain almost exclusively a single lineup per night player; however, I realize that I have hurt my results by not at least considering every game on the slate. I will continue to cross out games and players, but only after giving that game environment and most likely game script serious consideration. This blog will attempt to capture my thought process and new robust analytical approach to every day’s NBA slate. My natural humor and cynicism can’t be contained, so that will remain a hallmark of my writing. That being said, numbers win the day. Please ping me with any comments you may have on the blog.
Have you ever eaten a single pancake? Whether it was at home, in college, at work, at IHOP, at the local diner or anywhere. Has your plate/napkin/paper towel/dirty hands ever held one single pancake and that was going to be your entire consumption of pancakes for that meal? I haven’t. In fact, the idea of eating a single pancake sounds a little disgusting. I mean, why even add syrup if you are going to just consume one measly pancake? However, a stack of pancakes sounds f’ing delicious. That stack could be two, three or eight pancakes. I don’t care, any iteration of a stack of pancakes is wonderful. In fact, now that I am thinking about it, I kind of want that for lunch. The problem is that I am having lunch with the CEO and CFO of one of the largest banks in the United States and I don’t think pancakes will be on the menu. Dang it!! Anyways, why am I thinking about pancakes at all? We all use the term “stacking” all the time in DFS. I was thinking about this slate and how I want to stack the TrailBlazers/Pelicans game. I want to so bad that my teeth hurt. I want to so bad I can feel it deep in my plums. You get it. However, I can’t employ this strategy effectively until we find out the status of Brandon Ingram later on (better be before 7pm lock Mr. Gentry). I want him to sit, since that will make the stack easier to construct. As such, he’ll probably hobble around and play despite not even practicing yesterday. Anyways, we all do crazy stuff on a 5 game slate. I believe my destiny today lies in stacking the Pelicans/Trailblazers and eating pancakes for dinner. Despite that firm statement on how I am going to approach this slate and my dinner tonight, let’s take a look at the entire 5 gamer.
Are you ready to be Popped by the Spurs again tonight? That DeRozan late scratch really seems to just be bad luck. Doesn’t even seem like Pop screwed DFers given it looks like DeRozan will be out again tonight (he is listed as Doubtful). However, in a BTB matchup against the Thunder in Oklahoma City seems like a prime opportunity to be Popped tonight. The game is at 8pm, so that raises the risk on FanDuel of playing LMA. He hasn’t habitually sat out BTBs this season, but his performance has been very inconsistent over the BTBs he did play in. Combine this with a matchup against a solid defensive team in the Thunder who also play somewhat slow and the Spurs will not be in my player pool. The only exception I’ll make is if LMA and DeRozan are both out tonight and the Spurs are looking at just nine guys playing minutes. Overall, I much prefer the OKC side since the Spurs are terrible defensively (give up 8th most points per game in the NBA this year) and players like Gallo and SGA appear somewhat attractive. I do worry a little bit about a non-competitive game here.
Boston versus Houston should appeal to me, but it doesn’t. Why? This game should be filled with fantasy goodness, but I don’t find these players showing up in my initial builds. The total of 230+ should be enough to get me interested. However, rotations and production confuse me. Kemba at 30 a minutes restriction with other good PG options tonight is a no go. Tatum looks great, but he is pricey. Hayward and Brown are priced reasonably and both could go off. But, which one? And forget the Celtics big men. The Rockets small ball strategy will keep their minutes more limited than usual. And on the Rockets side, I don’t want to play for Westie or Regular Season James, but everyone else on that team kind of stinks from a DFS perspective. I many just stop fighting this feeling and move on without rostering people here. Damn, that seems scary though.
Sixers/Clippers could be a great game to watch. DFS goodness? I love this game, but more from a real-life perspective. Embiid at Center against this defense could go off. On the other side, I can see trying to roster one of Kahwi or PG. But, both of these teams are very healthy, so it is quite possible one could pay up here and miss the boat in terms of production. This will require some deep thinking after 6:30pm today.
That’s it for now. I will add on later once we start getting injury news. Until then, I guess we all get to hurry up and wait. Good luck in all your contests tonight.