NBA Today - January 14
I am taking a new approach to NBA DFS in 2020. More analytics, less instinct and slightly broader player pools. I remain almost exclusively a single lineup per night player; however, I realize that I have hurt my results by not at least considering every game on the slate. I will continue to cross out games and players, but only after giving that game environment and most likely game script serious consideration. This blog will attempt to capture my thought process and new robust analytical approach to every day’s NBA slate. My natural humor and cynicism can’t be contained, so that will remain a hallmark of my writing. That being said, numbers win the day. Please ping me with any comments you may have on the blog.
My name is Luka. I crush the Warriors every time. I play them again tonight. Yes, I think you’ll see me score 75. Yikes, that sounded awkward, no? But, if you sing those four sentences to the tune of “Luka” by Suzanne Vega, you’ll quickly realize that I am a verbal genius. And then the lyrics will get stuck in your head and you will curse my name. In any case, I have been singing that song for the better part of the afternoon. Why, you may ask? Well, I discovered that it was crazy easy to fit both Luka Doncic and Regular Season James Harden in my Fanduel lineup tonight. Sure, about 50,000 other people will do the same thing tonight. But, maybe they won’t. Maybe I will pair these two, two other studlike players and four value guys about to break out and put up 430+ points on Fanduel. A boy can dream, can’t he? Anyways, we have a pretty sweet six game NBA slate tonight, so let’s get after it. Oh wait, a quick word about last night. I put up a 200% ROI on Yahoo, a 200% ROI on FanDuel, but bagled on Draftkings. How might that have happened? Well, I had Lonzo Ball, SGA, Enes Kanter, Etwaun Moore, Gallo and Al Horford on FD and Yahoo. Yet, my brilliant idea on DK was to build around LeBron and Whiteside (whoops) and then fill in with Hayes and NAW from the Pelicans (double whoops). I won’t even go into the rest of the build. So, it was a good night, but still one with some meat on the bone. Now, on to tonight’s slate. The backdrop of tonight’s contests is that Harden is playing without Westbrook, Luka is playing without Porzingis and there is a ton of value potential out there right now. Get ready for some nice scores on Fanduel tonight.
Regular Season James Harden is playing Memphis with no Russell Westbrook. Game has a total of 240.5, Memphis and Houston both play fast and neither play much defense. Regular Season James has a 40%+ usage rate and averages over 1.8 fppm without Westie. And he costs just $11.7 on FanDuel with a bunch of value out there. Don’t overthink it. Play Regular Season James Harden.
Luke plays the Warriors with no Zinger. Luke has already torced the Warriors twice this year. He gets them again tonight in a game being played in Golden State (might be competitive) and he does not have Porzingis this evening. Luka has almost a 40% usage rate and averages just under 1.8 fppm in this type of situation. And the Warriors can’t guard him. And he costs under $11k on Fanduel. I think I’ve played Luka once this year as I prefer more balanced lineups. Not tonight. Play him on Fanduel. Stars and scrubs baby.
Who are the scrubs…… I mean value on the slate? I think there is a ton of value tonight. The key will be to nail the RIGHT value. Elle Okobo is close to the minimum on FD and DK and will start in place of Ricky Rubio this evening. Alex Len and Bruno Fernando are out, so Damian Jones has to get 20 or more minutes for Atlanta at the minimum on both sites. Rockets like Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker are both in the $4k range. Sure, they both stink but Houston has a 123 implied total tonight. Memphis might have some value on the wings if a few of their questionables sit. Kevin Love and Ante Zizic are out, so there might be some value in on the Cavs as they get rocked by the Clippers tonight.
That does it for today. Short on analytics and long on experience today. Let’s hope a stars and scrubs approach works out. Best of luck in your contests tonight.