NBA Today - January 23
I am taking a new approach to NBA DFS in 2020. More analytics, less instinct and slightly broader player pools. I remain almost exclusively a single lineup per night player; however, I realize that I have hurt my results by not at least considering every game on the slate. I will continue to cross out games and players, but only after giving that game environment and most likely game script serious consideration. This blog will attempt to capture my thought process and new robust analytical approach to every day’s NBA slate. My natural humor and cynicism can’t be contained, so that will remain a hallmark of my writing. That being said, numbers win the day. Please ping me with any comments you may have on the blog.
So, Zion’s debut in the NBA was a success. Or was it a failure? I’m not entirely sure, but I’m glad he made it through those grueling 18 minutes without suffering a setback. I think he outscored Jeff Teague by about a thousand percent just with his fourth quarter production alone. Amazing how Teague failed in a wonderful spot versus the Clippers. He didn’t even see the court in the fourth quarter. I wonder if his playing time will now drift away to nothing. Anyways, I’m just glad the Hawks aren’t on the NBA slate tonight. We have a little 3 game slate, but each game carries some intrigue and some questions here at 12:30pm. Let’s take a look at those questions and see if we can set ourselves up for success tonight.
1) Will Mr. Glass play tonight? The Lakers are on the second night of a back-to-back versus the Nets. Hmmmm, I wonder what time the Lakers players went to bed last night…. I mean this morning. Right now, Glass is listed as questionable with his gluteus maximus contusion. In other words, Anthony Davis is butt hurt. That will never get old….. Now, why would the Lakers play him in this game? He’s still sore, the Lakers are in a winnable game and the team plays a primetime game against the Sixers on Saturday. I have to think he sits, but we’ll find out later (8pm game). In the event that Mr. Glass does sit, Lebron becomes the #1 player on this slate. His usage rate ex Glass is 36%, he averages over 1.5x fppm and he gets a matchup with an up tempo (Nets 9th in the league in pace) Nets team. Lock him in at a thin small forward position tonight.
2) Might Jarrett Allen be the only real Center tonight for the Nets? DeAndre Jordan is questionable, but doesn’t sound great. That Claxton guy is Doubtful. As such, Allen could be the only real big for the Nets tonight. This could lock him into 30-35 minutes and at less than $6k on Fanduel, could make for an interesting PF play.
3) Will Bradley Beal play on a BTB for the Wiz (everybody beats ‘em)? Beal is ramping up his minutes (high 30’s last night) and his production is following. Will we see him tonight in a juicy matchup versus the Cavaliers? If we do, fire him up at just $7.5k. And if he does sit, that might even be better. Because then we can all play Jordan McRae at $5k in a revenge matchup. Heck, I might even just play them both tonight.
4) Will CJ McCollum play tonight versus Dallas? Who cares. Regardless of whether he plays or not, you need to fire up Damian Lillard who is putting this team on his back. Whiteside’s production is not really impacted by McCollum. And while McCollum does not look good for tonight, if he does suit up, I won’t play him given it is the first game back from an ankle injury.
5) Who will pick up Dwight Powell minutes? Unfortunately for the Mavs, Dwight Powell tore his achilles in the game versus the Clippers the other night. Now the question becomes who gets those minutes. Porzingis? Kleber? Don’t mess with Boban? I’m not sure, but I do like the price on Kleber on FanDuel ($4.8k).
6) Will I win the FD $100k shot tonight? No, I will not. But, I will try.
That’s it for now. This slate will be defined by the injury news that drops later on. Good luck in all your contests tonight.