NBA Today - March 11
I am taking a new approach to NBA DFS in 2020. More analytics, less instinct and slightly broader player pools. I remain almost exclusively a single lineup per night player; however, I realize that I have hurt my results by not at least considering every game on the slate. I will continue to cross out games and players, but only after giving that game environment and most likely game script serious consideration. This blog will attempt to capture my thought process and new robust analytical approach to every day’s NBA slate. My natural humor and cynicism can’t be contained, so that will remain a hallmark of my writing. That being said, numbers win the day. Please ping me with any comments you may have on the blog.
The stock market is down 5.5% today as I write this. The Golden State Warriors are going to play home games in front of zero fans. The President may or may not declare a state of emergency today. My daughter’s college just announced that their classes are going remote and students need to vacate campus. And we have a 6 game NBA slate tonight. I might not even talk DFS today. The country is changing. Near-term, the country and our behaviors are about to be tested. Longer-term, this will pass, but we will all be a little bit different. DFS provides a nice refuge for us from the news of the day and the issues facing certain areas of the country. So have fun with it. Don’t complain. Don’t lash out when Maxi Kleber puts up 12.5 fantasy points tonight in a spot start with Porzingis likely out. Don’t engage in conspiracy theories about why certain people win while the vast majority of us don’t. Just enjoy the game and the puzzle that it presents every day. Hell, even play some NHL tonight just to mix it up. Try to have fun with this game while others in the country are freaking out about how much toilet paper they need for the next month. I know these are things I will try to do over the next few weeks. Though, I plan on shitting a lot, so I better hit up Costco just to be sure :).
I’m not sure where I am going to go with this blog today, but I just know I need to write. Please bear with me.
DFS tonight. Ok, let me quickly touch on tonight’s 6 gamer. Play Trae Young against the Knicks. Play Tim Hardaway Jr with Zinger now confirmed out and Seth Curry out as well. Play Luka Doncic. Hope a couple Heat guards are out and then play Bam + whatever starting Heat guard is in. Stack the Pelicans/Kings with the primary plays being D’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, Buddy Hield and Zion the God. Ignore the Pistons/Sixers game unless some injury news surprises us. And there you have it. Tonight’s slate wrapped up in a sloppy bow.
Sports as a metaphor for society. Sports is way more popular than it should be. Hey, I love sports. So, do you. But at its heart, most sports are stupid. Wear a costume and hit a rawhide circular object with a piece of wood? Run fast into each other while one person carries a brown object and tries to get beyond a white line of chalk? Put on shorts and a tank top shirt and try to put a circular bouncing ball into a circular piece of metal with a net attached? See what I mean? But, sports means a lot to society and can even mimic society at some times. That is what is starting to happen now. The Golden State Warriors are going to start playing games in front of zero fans. I could make a very funny joke about this right here, but I won’t. What is happening to the Warriors is happening in New Rochelle, NY. It may soon be happening in Seattle. And numerous other places in the United States. Don’t be surprised if the Knicks don’t play in front of home fans again this season. Or the Rangers. Or the Islanders. Or some arenas in the NCAA mens basketball tournament. Or baseball stadiums in late March and April. It kind of stinks for professional sports to be impacted by this virus. It really stinks for the people who are sick or dying from it.
The stock market is f*cked. I may have mentioned this at some point in my years of writing pithy blogs, but I am an investments guy. A damn good one at that. Certainly much better than recommending NBA plays for DFS :). And all I can say is that prepare yourself for a wild, terrible ride for the next month or two. The hit to the U.S. economy will be quick, but it will be savage. Don’t be surprised when this occurs. Don’t say that people are overreacting. They won’t be. It is going to feel terrible, but it will pass. Be smart about putting more money into the market and perhaps ask yourself “Will I be ok if I lose 30% on this stock in three days?” before committing capital. Some days will feel like DFS when one of your players is late scratched or gets injured in the first quarter.
Leadership is important. This lesson is becoming more and more noticeable with every day that passes. And my comments here apply no matter what your political leanings are. It was important when George Bush faced the onset of the financial crisis. It was important when Barack Obama became President and had to deal with the depths of the financial crisis. And it is important now that Donald Trump is our President. So far, leadership at the top has been lacking in dealing with this coronavirus issue. That is partially why the stock market continues to tank. That is partially why Americans are probably more scared and ill informed than they should be. And it is probably why this crisis may drag on for months and months versus being contained within one month. The President has an excellent opportunity to turn this around and show some real leadership. If he does, he’ll be a hero. If he doesn’t, Joe Biden will be in the White House come January.
That’s all I got. I know I didn’t help you with DFS today. But perhaps you are thinking about other things today. Good luck in your DFS contests tonight and good luck whatever the coronavirus brings to your town/community/family.