NeoGamer's MetaGaming 6/20/2016
There are plenty of articles and shows dealing with the sabermetics, but I am much more interested in trying to figure out what my opponents are going to do. Ownership in fantasy sports is a major factor in any type of contest and especially in tournaments. You want to get in at low ownership and get the massive fantasy performances. This is not an easy thing to do these days with the massive amounts of resources available on this site and all across the web. I am going to take a look at tonight’s slate and pick out a few points of interest on my favorite site Fanduel.com
Clayton Kershaw – $13,000 – This is a tough spot tonight. There are quite a few games on the slate with some very juicy run totals that you want to have exposure to. Unfortunately, once you plug Kersh in you are only allowed $2750 per batter on the rest of your lineup. After looking at batters from, SEA/DET, CWS/BOS, and BAL/TEX it became apparent that all the bats you want to have are all over $3,500. This means taking more then two of these guys would be borderline impossible on this slate. Yes, there could be some cheapo 2k guys show up, but I think the cash line in 50/50 will be absurdly lower then tournaments tonight. People will force in Kershaw in the cash games and hurt their upside in the process. The biggest problem tonight is that the other top options are relatively close in price, and the mid range pitching is not all that enticing. The ownership in cash games will be 50%+ because of this, so work your magic with the little salary given to you in those contests. Taking Kershaw in tournaments is not a horrible idea either, because I think people will be off him to work in the big name bats. After a while you realize that Kershaw is basically is the Coors effect in pitching. No price is too high to pay.
Mike Pelfrey Effect – There are key words in the DFS world that make fantasy players eyes light up. Pelfrey is definitely one of them. Everyone operates with different levels of research, but going to the lineups page looking for Pelfrey and loading up on all the bats facing him is actually a viable strategy this season. The run total in this game is one of the highest I have seen at Comerica Park, so this game sticks out like no other. People are going to first go to Robinson Cano, then Nelson Cruz, then Kyle Seager in their lineups. The ownership on all of these guys will be through the roof in all contests on this slate. This is the Pelfrey Effect. Their are tons of other options on this slate, but peoples first thought will be to get some exposure to this game. Keep this in mind tonight when formulating your lineups.
Mark Trumbo – $3,600 – His power production this season has been a definite surprise, and he is done enough of it to catch the attention of fantasy gamers everywhere. You don’t hit 20 home runs before the All-Star Break and go unnoticed. His only problem is that he is a strikeout guy that deals with quite a bit of inconsistency. I don’t think people are really going to care about that when take take a look at his BvP vs Derek Holland, and they realize that he is playing down in Arlington. The price is too cheap on Trumbo tonight, so ownership will reach insane levels in any contest. You could hope for some of his inconsistencies to show up in tournaments, but fading him cash games would not be a wise move.
Giancarlo Stanton – $3200 – If this were a previous year, Stanton at this price would be 100% on everyone’s roster. This season we find our selves hoping for an extra at bat and only getting an epic strikeout with runners in scoring position. He is still hitting the ball hard though and has always been a beast against left-handed pitching .412wOBA. I think the price still does grab the eye of fantasy gamers, but once they see that he is one for ten against starter Jorge De La Rosa they will pass. Stanton will have some low ownership today across the board, and the upside still remains high as ever. If you can afford a few extra lineups in a GPP, you would be wise to throw in Stanton just in case he decides to break out of his power slump at this salary.
Late Night Hammer – Fantasy players are typically massive fans of instant gratification. When there are games right off the bat that have a high projection they will jump all over it. Tonight people are going to focus massively on the Mariners/Tigers and WhiteSox/RedSox games because of this and forget about the Rangers game at 8pm. This is going to be at a lesser effect then lets say a Sunday where there are games hours apart, but it still be apparent. Its not like their won’t be runs scored down in Arlington, so getting more exposure there then your opponents could be a winning tournament strategy. As mentioned above, many lineup slots will first be filled by Mariners, so not doing that should give you some ownership edge this evening.
General Thoughts – With the matchups out there tonight scoring should be on the high side. Fanduel’s pricing continues to be loose enabling massive scoring on any given night. Getting cute and fading options that you think will be highly owned because of lower salary has not been a good line to take this year. As some say, be contrarian but don’t be stupid. There will be some massive overlap in cash games and if this bothers you throw in a bunch of cheap tournament guesses and call it a night. If you like what you read here, please comment here or drop me a message on twitter @NeoGamerDFS. Good luck tonight in your contests!