NeoGamer's Tournament Mega Fades
Winning tournaments is one of the toughest things to do in daily fantasy. It is especially hard for someone like me who does really like the idea of multi-entry. That being said, it is possible and I have done it. The time between wins can be massive, but I think there is definitely merit to putting your best guess out there every night and not going bonkers with insane amounts of entries. This is going to be a look at tonight’s slate from the prospective of a player looking to throw a single bullet lineup in to a massive GPP. You always read or hear experts mentioning that you should have some “exposure” to this guy and such, but that has never really applied to what I am looking to do. You only have one guess, so your exposure is limited to the best play in your mind at every position. To win or place high in tournament you have to be different, but not necessarily completely different. “Being Contrarian Without Being Stupid” was a great article posted by TwoGun which will give you some great insight on how to be unique when constructing your lineups. Lets do something a little bit contrarian today. I am going to give you some top plays that I don’t like for tournaments and also a few alternative options to use instead.
Spending up for pitching is definitely the way to go when playing in cash games. It is not necessarily the wrong way to go in tournaments, but going cheap can open up bats the a majority of the field cant even think of affording. The slate you are playing is the ultimate factor when determining a tournament pitcher. Today’s slate features games with high powered offenses in hitters parks located in Cincinnati, Texas, Chicago, and Arizona. Also, there are plenty big time bats facing questionable pitchers in many other games this evening.. Taking a risk at pitcher is likely the single best way to get both unique and powerful bats in your lineup this evening.
All the plays below are based on Fanduel pricing this evening
1B Anthony Rizzo $4500
Rizzo should be in most peoples cash game this evening considering his .394 wOBA against righties and the fact he is facing Matt Cain who has allowed a .433 wOBA to lefties so far this season. That being said, I don’t think Rizzo is right for us. He is on the expensive side and batting AT&T Park where over the last three years he has only managed a .612 OPS. Also, Rizzo and the rest of his team has been boom/bust all season. He is a fine play this evening, but fading him for a comparable option could be the fade that wins us the big bucks.
2B Kelly Johnson $2400
Johnson has been getting some favorable positioning in the Mets lineup, but is not someone you can rely on for consistent production. He brings to the table a little bit of pop for a second baseman, and he has BvP numbers against Jerome Williams. All of the above will likely make him a popular target across the board as most people will slot him in to get in top pitching options. He will not be in my lineup though due to the fact that Jerome has has been way more generous to the right side this season, and fading Johnson is unlikely to hurt me too much.
3B Todd Frazier $2800
Frazier has been on one heck of a slump since the All-Star Break, and his struggles have brought down his price so much that the reward has way outgrown the risk in most peoples minds. We all know that he has some serious power and he will eventually get his groove back, but I think he is a wonderful fade till he gets it going again. He has been boom/bust since the break and there have been very few booms recently. In cash games he will be high owned again and will also catch the eyes of many tourney players this afternoon due his price point and amazing numbers versus lefties. I think there are some pretty good options above him this evening.
SS Jhonny Peralta $2400
The price has came down on Peralta and rightfully so. He has not really done anything note worthy since the beginning of the month, and the lack of players like Matt Holliday and Matt Adams has apparently hurt his ability to produce great fantasy numbers. He is still a Shortstop with a liltte bit of power playing in a hitters park versus a lefty. He is also priced so cheap that he will be likely owned very high across the board. Shortstop is one of the places that taking a gamble will not hurt you very much. I don’t see a problem with taking him, but also I don’t see that much harm in not taking him considering his recent lack of production.
There is really not one play to single out here, there are plenty of good cheap and expensive options to look at. I think there will be some serious differentiation in the outfield, so you should go with who ever you deem fit and they will likely not be too massively owned in tournaments.
Good luck in your Tournaments this evening! Please be sure to send me some feed back on here or on Twitter @NeoGamerDFS.