New Years NBA Numerous Noteworthy Plays

Intro

The alliteration is just off the rails. I don’t know why I feel the need to come up with some fancy title but it’s just more fun that way.

Hello DFS world. Welcome to the new year. I’m not gonna bore you with the same blanket statements everyone else has made like “oh thank god the year is over finally”. It’s been said before, we get it, it’s done. In DFS we are forward-looking people, so now let us turn our attention forward and on to the new slate.

I know you clicked on the article for plays but just as a side note, make some DFS goals for yourself this year. Don’t be afraid to overshoot your goal for how much profit you want to bring in from DFS this year, it’s much worse to undershoot than to overshoot. Any day you could take down a large field GPP and writing down your goals will help you feel like it’s much more possible. Plan for success, track your results, and play for profit. Invest in yourself and your own DFS abilities.

Anyways, enough of all that, let’s get into the actual information that will help you reach your goals. LETS GO.

Point Guard

This will mostly be a tournament article so I’m not going to sit here and tell you to play Raul Neto because Russell Westbrook is out. Any projection system will tell you that and it’s a waste of time to tell you because you gain nothing from it. I will talk about plays that could be low owned and are getting overlooked either due to game environment, roster construction, etc. That, to me, is much more valuable than giving you boring cash plays that won’t help you win any tournaments.

Which brings me to Donovan Mitchell. I don’t have ownership up yet but my guess is he won’t be overly popular due to the way the slate is shaping up. Most people will start with Raul Neto down at the bottom and look to spend up at PG which could leave Mitchell a bit under-owned. I’m not sure what DK was doing pricing him at $6.8k when he has been very solid through the first four games. He hasn’t blown up yet but he still has the highest usage rate on the team at 31.6% to begin the season.

The only real reason he hasn’t been able to put up a big score yet is because his field goal % is only at 34.1%, which simply means his shot just isn’t falling yet. I fully expect him to be able to bounce back soon enough as his field goal % was almost 45% all of last season. We know he’s going to play big minutes every single game and if he can get his shot going tonight he will smash his price.

Another guy I’d like to mention is Dejounte Murray. If LaMarcus Aldridge sits again this play could get even better, but I still like him either way. I’ve been waiting for Dejounte Murray to step up and kept trying to play him last year and getting burned by Derrick White stealing his minutes. It seems Murray has finally taking the step forward and getting all the minutes he can handle. Believe it or not, he leads the team in usage this year despite many people clicking Derozan’s name before him.

We can safely project him for 30+ minutes on a regular basis right now and he played a season high 35 minutes when LA was out. I absolutely love his ability to get to the basket, confidence to shoot the basketball (19 FGA last game), and most importantly, how low owned I assume he will be. He’s not going to rate out very high in projection systems, but he has tournament winning upside.

Fire up these two mid-priced point guards as a great way to gain leverage on the field tonight.

Shooting Guard

Again, I’m not here to give you the obvious plays, Bradley Beal without Russell Westbrook is also obviously a great play. Since most people will look to build a stars and scrubs lineup, let’s look for another mid-range play that will be presumably low-owned.

Zach LaVine certainly fits the bill. People are always scared of blowout concerns and matchups, I’m much more interested in usage rates and minutes. I think LaVine will be criminally low owned tonight due to the -14.5 spread and the matchup against the Bucks. Unsurprisingly, LaVine owns the highest usage rate on the team at 30.2% and if the game stays relatively close, we know he will be playing massive minutes. People always are overconfident they can predict blowouts and in the event this game stays remotely close, LaVine can really pop for a massive DK score due to his usage and ability to score.

Don’t be afraid to take stands where people will shy away. That is basically the definition of contrarian. He also projects for almost 40 DK points at just $7.6k which accounts for matchup and everything. It won’t even take much to be overweight on the field so I will happily take a chance on Lavine here.

Small Forward

Small Forward is a bit interesting. People always look to pay down here and we’ll see if that’s the case tonight. Either way, Jayson Tatum has a fantastic price tag and could come slightly lower owned than usual because he busted some lineups the other night. For people who don’t look at what happened in that game, they will not see that Tatum didn’t play a minute of the fourth quarter because they were blowing the Grizzlies out. He only ended up with 23 minutes and Jaylen Brown hit 7/10 three’s which is just absurd.

Somehow Jaylen Brown is only $500 cheaper than Tatum which I guess is warranted given the start of the season for Brown but give me Tatum over Brown every time at those prices. Tatum is the star of this team make no mistake about it, he leads the team in usage at 30.3% and the matchup against the Pistons is fantastic. I’m not sure where his ownership will end up but I plan to be massively overweight here at this price and in this spot. Feel free to pay down at small forward but I’m going up top in A LOT of my lineups tonight.

The other player that may gain steam as the day goes on is Will Barton. Hopefully some people will be afraid to click his name as he usually doesn’t start but with Michael Porter Jr. out tonight due to COVID protocol, he is looking like a really strong play at just $5.5k. He’s a solid fantasy point per minute producer usually around 1 FPPM and if he gets around 35 minutes tonight (projected 34) he can very easily pay off that price tag. With Jerami Grant out of the picture in Denver, Porter on the sidelines for tonight, Barton has the potential to soak up a lot of usage behind Jokic and Murray.

Power Forward

It may feel silly to write down that Giannis is a good play tonight but I think it’s a good reminder as I believe his ownership will be much lower than it should be due to the blowout factor. He makes for a fantastic pairing with Zach LaVine in tournaments because if this game “shoots out” you better believe those two had something to do with it.

Again, not that I really need to put this here but, Giannis averaged 1.88 FPPM with a 37.2% usage rate last season. If you don’t understand how insane that is than I don’t know how to help you. In the 3 games that he has had 30+ minutes, he has averaged over 60 DK pts this year. At $11k you will take 60 points every single day of the week. Hey, the Knicks beat the Bucks just a few games ago, who’s to say the Bulls can’t at least keep it close for 4 full quarters??

Center

You’ll find that in NBA people have a lot more recency bias than in other sports. It’s hard not too (especially this season) when players will be playing the same exact team, at the same court, and in the same circumstances that they played in literally the day before. People think “He just smashed last night against that same team how could he possibly bust?”. The whole world changes over night and you have to address every slate as a new puzzle every day.

I mention all of this because Naz Reid just sucked last game against the Clippers and only logged 19 minutes with 16.75 DK Pts as the chalk just a couple slates ago. The fact is that KAT is still out so this will be the same situation yet he will be much lower owned despite having an infinitely better matchup and only $100 more than last game. This is a guy that is a very solid FPPM producer right around 1.00 FPPM and assuming he finally gets a full complement of minutes, he should be able to produce tonight. Take advantage of people’s biases and use them to your advantage.

Let’s start off the calendar year with a profitable night!

If you enjoyed this article feel free to leave a comment or hit the thumbs-up at the top of the article. You can also follow me on twitter. Or you can do neither of those three things and do whatever you want. Let’s fire up these plays and take down some GPP’s and as always, may the football gods have mercy on your souls.

About the Author

Comments

  • FitFantasyGod

    Let me know what you’re thinking about tonight’s slate! I enjoy all feedback!

  • ghostfacekicker

    @FitFantasyGod said...

    Let me know what you’re thinking about tonight’s slate! I enjoy all feedback!

    Thanks for the article!

  • FitFantasyGod

    @ghostfacekicker said...

    Thanks for the article!

    Thanks for reading!!

  • ifthethunder

    I like your GPP idea: “Everyone assumes this game will blowout, but…WHAT if it doesn’t?”

    Maybe flip-side to that is…what if some other game does? Boston at Detroit is Celtics -8.5, last Vegas I checked.

    But I could see it being way more lopsided, giving Payton Pritchard a chance to rule the 4th quarter again. Putting him in one of my G spots (Beavis snicker) + Neto allows me to run several of your ideas and Nikola Jokic, too.
    ~

  • FitFantasyGod

    @ifthethunder said...

    I like your GPP idea: “Everyone assumes this game will blowout, but…WHAT if it doesn’t?”

    Maybe flip-side to that is…what if some other game does? Boston at Detroit is Celtics -8.5, last Vegas I checked.

    But I could see it being way more lopsided, giving Payton Pritchard a chance to rule the 4th quarter again. Putting him in one of my G spots (Beavis snicker) + Neto allows me to run several of your ideas and Nikola Jokic, too.
    ~

    You nailed it! It works exactly the same in the other direction as you pointed out. I love that idea and it will be super low owned! I hope it works out for you my friend!!

  • madmanjayWV

    Good stuff!

  • FitFantasyGod

    @madmanjayWV said...

    Good stuff!

    Appreciate you reading and leaving a comment! Happy New Year!

  • efagan99

    Nice article! I initially liked Tatum but was concerned about a blowout, but now I’m gonna use your YOLO logic and play him in a couple! You’re right, his ceiling is insane and he’s too cheap for it.

    Also, FYI Derrick White is back tonight. I won’t be playing Murray because of that.

  • FitFantasyGod

    @efagan99 said...

    Nice article! I initially liked Tatum but was concerned about a blowout, but now I’m gonna use your YOLO logic and play him in a couple! You’re right, his ceiling is insane and he’s too cheap for it.

    Also, FYI Derrick White is back tonight. I won’t be playing Murray because of that.

    Yeah I definitely bumped down Murray a lot because of that fact. I still love Tatum though let’s get it tonight!! Cheers Happy new year!

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