NFL: A Saturday-Specific Special Summary

Quick Intro

Wow look at that alliteration for the title of the article. A Saturday-Specific Special Summary. Am I some sort of literary genius? (No, you just write extremely average fantasy articles.)

Anyways, jokes aside, we have a great two game slate with absolutely massive prize pools on DraftKings this Saturday. Seriously what could be better than NFL on a Saturday?

Okay, you’re right, winning money playing NFL DFS on Saturday is even better. Let me try and help you do just that.

The first game kicks off with the Bills -5.5 at Denver with a total of 49. The last game is the Panthers at Packers -8.5 with a 51.5 total.

Before I go position by position, people seem to enjoy interesting specific player facts so I’ll leave a few for each team right here.

Packers

- Aaron Jones is averaging 101.0 rushing yards and 24.4 DK Pts at home this season.

- Davante Adams has scored a touchdown in 8 straight games and has 3 games with multiple touchdowns. I will also note that he has averaged 22.3 DK Pts at home this year and 32.5 DK Pts on the road despite scoring the same amount of touchdowns in both home/away games.

Bills

- Stefon Diggs has 134 targets this year which is 2nd in the NFL, behind only Keenan Allen. He is averaging 10.3 targets per game and is averaging 101.2 yards per game on the road.

- Cole Beasley has been a different person on the road this year. He has 31 receptions in his past three road games (10.3 rec/game), averaging 29.03 DK Pts in that same span, and averaging 20.4 DK Pts in all road games this year.

Broncos

- Noah Fant has averaged 5.6 targets per game this season (Slate high) and is priced at his lowest salary all season ($3,800). Buffalo has allowed the most receptions (75) and second-most receiving yards (833) to tight ends this season.

- Phillip Lindsay has rushed 50 times over the past four games (12.5/game) despite Melvin Gordon playing in each one of those games.

Panthers

- Mike Davis has twice as many catches on the road (38) this year than at home (19). He is also averaging 16.1 DK Pts per game on the road (despite only scoring 2 touchdowns) and is averaging 7.3 targets per game on the road.

- Teddy Bridgewater has not thrown more than 2 touchdowns in any game this entire season and has only reached 300+ yards 3 times. The Panthers have also lost 7 straight games with Teddy at QB.

Quarterback

The decision here is actually not even close in my opinion. I know Josh Allen will probably be the most popular, but he is absolutely the only QB I want to play on this slate. Aaron Rodgers is obviously good and has been just elite on all levels this year. But here’s why I will be playing Josh Allen over him:

1. Aaron Rodgers is $600 more than Josh Allen.

2. The Packers are 8.5 point favorites which could mean they won’t have to throw as much if they get out to an early lead. The way this offense has been lately I find it hard to believe the Panthers will keep Aaron Rodgers competitive.

3. Both these teams play at a very slow pace, Green bay ranks dead last in Seconds per play while Carolina ranks 29th in Sec/Play.

Aside from those reasons, Josh Allen makes it very easy to double stack comfortably against the Broncos questionable secondary. I mentioned the stats above for both Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs so I suggest you read them again but basically they have both been dominant on the road this year. Honestly, the first three players I plug into any lineup will probably be these three players.

Running Back

To me there are two clear cut running backs on this slate and they both come from the same game. Generally, I dislike playing opposing running backs against each other since they are negatively correlated. But I can make an exception for both of these running backs due to their involvement in the pass game.

I’m talking about Aaron Jones and Mike Davis by the way if you haven’t figured it out yet. Aaron Jones has been nothing short of dominant at Lambeau Field this year and I expect them to lean on the run game against a below average Carolina run defense.

I guess you could take a shot at Phillip Lindsay at min priced but it won’t feel good. I really only see two running backs on the slate and that’s probably where I’ll end my running back exposure. The opportunity cost at Wide receiver is much higher in my opinion and I will be running four wide receivers per lineup on DraftKings for this slate.

Wide Receiver

I already mentioned Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs as great plays so I won’t go into to much detail here. A decision point is certainly whether or not you want to pay up for Davante Adams on this slate. He is $9,400 and will come with very high ownership likely. I’m torn because I obviously think Davante Adams is the best receiver in the NFL.

He has had games where he is a must have on a given slate. On a 2 game slate, his raw points may become very valuable. However, my lean is to be underweight on Adams simply because I’ll already be overweight on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs who are pricey themselves. You can only play so many people on a slate so if I already love Aaron Jones and am fading Aaron Rodgers, it just makes sense for me to have less exposure to Adams.

Don’t get me wrong I’m sure he’ll have a great game, but if he only gets 20 DK points he might not end up on the optimal is all I’m saying.

The Broncos receivers give me a freaking headache and I won’t feel very confident playing any of them, nor do I have a strong lean on any. I’m sure Tim Patrick will be shadowed by Tre’Davios White so I guess downgrade him for that but also screw the Broncos’ weak passing attack.

Both Carolina receivers are certainly viable too, DJ Moore at $5,200 stands out to me as a very strong value play. I also know it might be crazy but triple stacking Josh Allen with Beasley, Diggs, and Davis is viable to me on this slate. Gabriel Davis has quietly scored in each of the past three games.

Tight End

I don’t want to spend a ton of time here as there really isn’t a lot to like at Tight End. You do have to play someone though unfortunately. You could do a lot worse than play Noah Fant as a play for this slate. I mentioned a couple of things about Fant at the beginning of the article so he makes sense for those reasons but also makes a ton of sense as a bring back for your Buffalo stacks.

I know it sucks to have to play someone from the Broncos offense but he’s my best bet and plays a position that is already extremely thin on this slate. Robert Tonyan is basically the only other guy I’ll mention as he has scored a touchdown in 4 straight games. We know Aaron Rodgers loves him and he’s basically a lock for 5 targets. He seems a bit more touchdown dependent than Fant is what I would say.

You can bargain hunt for Dawson Knox, Tyler Kroft, or Ian Thomas but its extremely thin. If I had to choose I’d go with Dawson Knox since he has the highest floor and actually received 7 targets last game. I don’t hate him as the last piece in a triple stack for the Bills. (Can you tell I like the Bills on this slate?)

Defense

Ahh, defense. What a terrible mystery you are. I honestly almost deleted this section because seriously who cares. It’s incredibly difficult to predict a good outing from a defense and its highly variable based on touchdowns. I expect the Bills to carry the most ownership and rightfully so because the Broncos are garbage.

What I will say, however, is that the Panthers will probably carry the lowest ownership but they have actually averaged 7.3 DK Points per game on the road this season. Many people will be scared to play a defense against the bulldozer that is the Packers offense but I mentioned before that these two teams play at a very slow pace and maybe it’s a low scoring affair.

Obviously Rodgers doesn’t throw many picks, barely any at all, but maybe a kick returner goes for a touchdown or something crazy, you never know with defense. The Panthers salary savings could allow you to fit Davante Adams in a lineup, you never know!

Okay wow, I took more time writing and thinking about defense than I did for tight ends. It’s time to end this article for Christ’s sake.

If you enjoyed this article feel free to leave a comment or hit the thumbs-up at the top of the article. You can also follow me on twitter. Or you can do neither of those three things and do whatever you want. Let’s fire up these plays and take down some GPP’s and as always, may the football gods have mercy on your souls.

About the Author

Comments

  • FitFantasyGod

    Let me know what you think of the article, any feedback is great feedback!

  • korfhagehDFS

    Great Insights man

  • FitFantasyGod

    @korfhagehDFS said...

    Great Insights man

    Super appreciate the comment man good luck out there tomorrow for UFC and NFL!

  • 33BeRad

    From what I gather you seem to like more Broncos than Packers. At least as far as getting them in your lineup. Packers have a 29 point implied team total and Broncos like 21 points. Are you expecting Aaron Jones to get all the tds? I would think in a 2 game slate you wanna get all the tds you can,

  • aquasition

    Nice write up

  • Kevin23242

    Helpful thanks

  • FitFantasyGod

    @33BeRad said...

    From what I gather you seem to like more Broncos than Packers. At least as far as getting them in your lineup. Packers have a 29 point implied team total and Broncos like 21 points. Are you expecting Aaron Jones to get all the tds? I would think in a 2 game slate you wanna get all the tds you can,

    Appreciate the comment man! I certainly do not like the Broncos hahah what I’m doing is playing Aaron Jones and then cycling through Lazard, scantling, and Tonyan. I just don’t have the salary for Rodgers and Adam’s.

  • FitFantasyGod

    @aquasition said...

    Nice write up

    Thanks man good luck out there today!

  • FitFantasyGod

    @Kevin23242 said...

    Helpful thanks

    Happy I could help boss let’s make some money today!!

  • walsean1

    Good article, thanks for helping me narrow down my player pool on a 2 game slate

  • FitFantasyGod

    @walsean1 said...

    Good article, thanks for helping me narrow down my player pool on a 2 game slate

    Of course man! Thanks for checking out the article and leaving a comment!

  • celtics69

    Nice read. It looks like you were spot on with your picks. Stack Buffalo fade Adams and Rogers. The D.J. Moore pick all guys in the winning lineup. Keep up the good work.

  • FitFantasyGod

    @celtics69 said...

    Nice read. It looks like you were spot on with your picks. Stack Buffalo fade Adams and Rogers. The D.J. Moore pick all guys in the winning lineup. Keep up the good work.

    I appreciate that boss yeah things worked out pretty nicely! Can’t expect it every time but we will absolutely take the result, thanks for reading!!

  • eball33

    Wow I wish I would have read this before today. It looks like you had the formula for sucess. Unfortunately Davonte Adams (packers game script) f***** me in my season long playoffs!

  • FitFantasyGod

    @eball33 said...

    Wow I wish I would have read this before today. It looks like you had the formula for sucess. Unfortunately Davonte Adams (packers game script) f***** me in my season long playoffs!

    I really appreciate you still reading it after the fact! Sucks to hear about Davante but he had an amazing season overall, thanks for the comment my guy!

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