NFL: A Saturday-Specific Special Summary
Wow look at that alliteration for the title of the article. A Saturday-Specific Special Summary. Am I some sort of literary genius? (No, you just write extremely average fantasy articles.)
Anyways, jokes aside, we have a great two game slate with absolutely massive prize pools on DraftKings this Saturday. Seriously what could be better than NFL on a Saturday?
Okay, you’re right, winning money playing NFL DFS on Saturday is even better. Let me try and help you do just that.
The first game kicks off with the Bills -5.5 at Denver with a total of 49. The last game is the Panthers at Packers -8.5 with a 51.5 total.
Before I go position by position, people seem to enjoy interesting specific player facts so I’ll leave a few for each team right here.
- Aaron Jones is averaging 101.0 rushing yards and 24.4 DK Pts at home this season.
- Davante Adams has scored a touchdown in 8 straight games and has 3 games with multiple touchdowns. I will also note that he has averaged 22.3 DK Pts at home this year and 32.5 DK Pts on the road despite scoring the same amount of touchdowns in both home/away games.
- Cole Beasley has been a different person on the road this year. He has 31 receptions in his past three road games (10.3 rec/game), averaging 29.03 DK Pts in that same span, and averaging 20.4 DK Pts in all road games this year.
- Noah Fant has averaged 5.6 targets per game this season (Slate high) and is priced at his lowest salary all season ($3,800). Buffalo has allowed the most receptions (75) and second-most receiving yards (833) to tight ends this season.
- Mike Davis has twice as many catches on the road (38) this year than at home (19). He is also averaging 16.1 DK Pts per game on the road (despite only scoring 2 touchdowns) and is averaging 7.3 targets per game on the road.
- Teddy Bridgewater has not thrown more than 2 touchdowns in any game this entire season and has only reached 300+ yards 3 times. The Panthers have also lost 7 straight games with Teddy at QB.
The decision here is actually not even close in my opinion. I know Josh Allen will probably be the most popular, but he is absolutely the only QB I want to play on this slate. Aaron Rodgers is obviously good and has been just elite on all levels this year. But here’s why I will be playing Josh Allen over him:
2. The Packers are 8.5 point favorites which could mean they won’t have to throw as much if they get out to an early lead. The way this offense has been lately I find it hard to believe the Panthers will keep Aaron Rodgers competitive.
3. Both these teams play at a very slow pace,
Aside from those reasons, Josh Allen makes it very easy to double stack comfortably against the Broncos questionable secondary. I mentioned the stats above for both Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs so I suggest you read them again but basically they have both been dominant on the road this year. Honestly, the first three players I plug into any lineup will probably be these three players.
To me there are two clear cut running backs on this slate and they both come from the same game. Generally, I dislike playing opposing running backs against each other since they are negatively correlated. But I can make an exception for both of these running backs due to their involvement in the pass game.
I’m talking about Aaron Jones and Mike Davis by the way if you haven’t figured it out yet. Aaron Jones has been nothing short of dominant at Lambeau Field this year and I expect them to lean on the run game against a below average Carolina run defense.
I guess you could take a shot at Phillip Lindsay at min priced but it won’t feel good. I really only see two running backs on the slate and that’s probably where I’ll end my running back exposure. The opportunity cost at Wide receiver is much higher in my opinion and I will be running four wide receivers per lineup on DraftKings for this slate.
I already mentioned Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs as great plays so I won’t go into to much detail here. A decision point is certainly whether or not you want to pay up for Davante Adams on this slate. He is $9,400 and will come with very high ownership likely. I’m torn because I obviously think Davante Adams is the best receiver in the NFL.
He has had games where he is a must have on a given slate. On a 2 game slate, his raw points may become very valuable. However, my lean is to be underweight on Adams simply because I’ll already be overweight on Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs who are pricey themselves.
Don’t get me wrong I’m sure he’ll have a great game, but if he only gets 20 DK points he might not end up on the optimal is all I’m saying.
The Broncos receivers give me a freaking headache and I won’t feel very confident playing any of them, nor do I have a strong lean on any. I’m sure Tim Patrick will be shadowed by Tre’Davios White so I guess downgrade him for that but also screw the Broncos’ weak passing attack.
Both Carolina receivers are certainly viable too, DJ Moore at $5,200 stands out to me as a very strong value play. I also know it might be crazy but triple stacking Josh Allen with Beasley, Diggs, and Davis is viable to me on this slate. Gabriel Davis has quietly scored in each of the past three games.
I don’t want to spend a ton of time here as there really isn’t a lot to like at Tight End. You do have to play someone though unfortunately. You could do a lot worse than play Noah Fant as a play for this slate. I mentioned a couple of things about Fant at the beginning of the article so he makes sense for those reasons but also makes a ton of sense as a bring back for your Buffalo stacks.
I know it sucks to have to play someone from the Broncos offense but he’s my best bet and plays a position that is already extremely thin on this slate. Robert Tonyan is basically the only other guy I’ll mention as he has scored a touchdown in 4 straight games. We know Aaron Rodgers loves him and he’s basically a lock for 5 targets. He seems a bit more touchdown dependent than Fant is what I would say.
You can bargain hunt for Dawson Knox, Tyler Kroft, or Ian Thomas but its extremely thin. If I had to choose I’d go with Dawson Knox since he has the highest floor and actually received 7 targets last game. I don’t hate him as the last piece in a triple stack for the Bills. (Can you tell I like the Bills on this slate?)
Ahh, defense. What a terrible mystery you are. I honestly almost deleted this section because seriously who cares. It’s incredibly difficult to predict a good outing from a defense and its highly variable based on touchdowns. I expect the Bills to carry the most ownership and rightfully so because the Broncos are garbage.
What I will say, however, is that the Panthers will probably carry the lowest ownership but they have actually averaged 7.3 DK Points per game on the road this season. Many people will be scared to play a defense against the bulldozer that is the Packers offense but I mentioned before that these two teams play at a very slow pace and maybe it’s a low scoring affair.
Obviously Rodgers doesn’t throw many picks, barely any at all, but maybe a kick returner goes for a touchdown or something crazy, you never know with defense. The Panthers salary savings could allow you to fit Davante Adams in a lineup, you never know!
Okay wow, I took more time writing and thinking about defense than I did for tight ends. It’s time to end this article for Christ’s sake.
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