NFL DFS and the Vegas effect

As we head into week 2 of the 2016 NFL season most of us start to fine tune our weekly lineup building and talent evaluation while other top ranked DFS players already have their winning formulas working well. Between two and three man stacks, double stacks, low owned targets, contrarian picks, value selections and mass lineup entry to cover all bases we all hope to achieve that optimal lineup to win a given slate. Both the top DFS player and the bottom DFS player have access to the same stats and information before each weeks games but the top players tend to utilize the data available more efficiently than most casual players. Vegas has a huge influence on DFS and helps non professional players save time on research and point projections to build lineups in the most effective manner. Projected points, Over/under, Line, Money line and Line movement give us all a good idea about how the sharks think things will go each week during the season. Without Vegas information most of us would waste tons of time trying to narrow don’t weekly picks while second and third guessing ourselves before games lock. I have learned to trust the sharks and it has saved me a lot of time and more importantly money! Of course there are times when Vegas will be wrong and money will be lost but as most successful DFS player will tell you “TRUST YOUR PROCESS”.

Week 2 of the NFL season is a weird week in DFS, It tends to be a week when a few of us believe we have it all figured out and can have accurate player projections to achieve success in our contest but by 11:30pm on Sunday night reality hits us in the face like a cold drink. We realize the NFL season will not follow the week 1 script and it will be a year of ups and downs for all players. The Chiefs/Chargers game in week 1 is a perfect example of surprises and false expectations for the upcoming week as many will be disappointed with the Chiefs offense output against the Texas after putting up 33 against a deflated Chargers squad that saw another season ending injury for their start receiver Keenan Allen. If you are keeping an eye on the Vegas expected points scored for the Chiefs/Texans game you can avoid some emotional picks and costly mistakes that will save your bankroll unnecessary losses. I am a huge SF 49ers fan and a part of me would love to believe we will have a great season after seeing my team steamroll the woeful LA Rams but being the sane NFL fan that I am and having access to the Vegas projected point totals which currently sit second lowest for the entire week 2 slate I can determine that my 9ers will not have a similar outcome after flying east to Carolina for a 1:00pm start. For those of you DFS players who just get a rush from “winging it” and not taking Vegas projections or any other useful data into consideration while building lineups because you have played little league football and have been a fan your whole life….Good Luck

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Comments

  • lastplace

    Vegas odds makers really blew it in week 2. Don’t call them experts, they suck. The giants-saints game was projected to go over 50 pts, wrong answer it was 29. I hope I’m not the only one who got burned for trusting those scumbags.

  • beolly187

    Only played Beckham in NYG/NO. Faded Brown, Jones, and Green. But, Stafford and Baldwin did me no favors. Was hoping Baldwin could get the volume Kerley had last week vs the Rams. Now hoping I can salvage something this week with Jordan Matthews. Vegas was right on the reverse line for SD/Jax though.

  • fpm2015

    vegas isn’t the sharpest the first couple weeks due to such a small sample size. new coaches players defenses etc. they are good at what they do at predicting odds i’m sure they lost a ton of $ also

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