NFL Lineup Analysis BEFORE Results
This is my first article doing a lineup analysis before the game results have happened. The reason I wanted to do this was to get my thoughts on paper before the emotion of the results arrive. Doing this should help to review my process later, instead of reviewing my lineup with the blinders of results, I’ll be looking at my lineup and determining good process over bad instead of being results oriented. I highly recommend doing this for yourself every week as it will help you review and refine your process. I am a two-team player, one cash/main roster and one deep shot gpp lineup. The cash/main roster is entered into cash games, single entry tournaments, and I usually throw it into one large field tourney. The deep shot gpp lineup is entered just once into a large field tourney. I play on Draftkings only.
My original main roster lineup had the Bills D/ST and Joe Mixon in it. But when Ryan Tannehill was ruled out I locked in the guaranteed points with the Bears D/ST and pivoted down to TJ Yeldon who I had at a similar floor/ceiling as Mixon. The QB spot, for me, came down to two players. Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston were the clear-cut top plays at QB. I’ll almost always side with the cheaper QB in an identical spot in a similarly dynamic offense. I decided to pair him with Cameron Brate. I hated everything at tight end this week so I took the positive game environment and the red zone targets of Brate with Winston at quarterback again. Those two have had a clear rapport since Winston’s inception. James Connor was a lock for me this week. With Big Ben’s troubles on the road at 1 pm eastern games, I expected the throwing game to struggle. Also, the Bengals have been terrible against the run this year and Connor’s touches were locked in to be around 20-25 with massive touchdown upside. The Seahawks love to run the ball. The Raiders have a bottom five run defense. Carson had a touch projection of 16-20 and at his price in that offense. Sign me up. I expect Julio Jones to have a massive week in the perfect game environment and after being ignored by the Falcons the previous week and being blown out, I expect Jones to be a fixture in the Falcons passing attack this week. Boyd should receive plenty of targets with AJ Green being shadowed by Joe Haden. Chester Rogers should see plenty of targets as the last man standing in the Colts offense against a Jets defense missing their top two corners. Yeldon was a great value all week and with no one else in the backfield for the Jags. The touches and touchdown equity were clear cut.
Results: This team was good for a score of 165.2 which won 5 of 7 head to heads and cashing in tournaments. I felt really good about my team this week but looking back on it I made two mistakes. The first was switching to the Yeldon/Bears D/ST from the Mixon/Bills D/ST. This switch cost me about 17 Draftkings points which would’ve brought my score to a very nice 182. This was a bad process because I was reacted to the news of Brock Osweiler starting for the Dolphins switching from a lineup I really liked to a lineup I liked less to take “guaranteed points”. The lesson learned here is there are no “guaranteed points” at the D/ST position which is why I was paying so far down in the first place. The second mistake I made here was the tight end position. I really hade no good reason to pick Cameron Brate this week other than his “rapport with Winston”. I got lucky with Brate because he had one catch for 15 yards and a touchdown. The lesson learned here is I should have taken the guaranteed opportunity of David Njoku or the highly likely opportunity of CJ Uzomah over Brate who was in a clear timeshare with OJ Howard at a clear reduction in target share. Switching to either Njoku or Uzomah would have also increased my score.
I loved the Colts and Jets game to stay close and score a ton. The Vegas line movement throughout the week backed up that sentiment gaining two points on the over/under throughout the week. No one was on this game so I took the only way I could see the Jets scoring and that was running the ball. Then I took the Colts passing attack and I took the two players that were clear-cut to get targets. I made it where I only needed a few things to go right for me to win a Gpp. The Colts and Jets score a ton. Boyd and Conner have been explained above. The Ravens defense seemed like a good play to me with the Titans being offensively inept.
Results: This actually ended up with a decent score of 179.74. I really liked this game stack throughout the week as the total kept rising. The Powell/Crowell combo where terrible but everyone else in this lineup had at least 15 points. This kind of bums me out because if Crowell/Powell hit as well this lineup likely wins a tournament. I don’t have any “bad process” mistakes here though I believe I should’ve played Jermaine Kearse who I liked throughout the week but became uneasy with the presence of Enunwa. Other than that everything went very well with this lineup and it was good for a 4x profit in tournaments.
Those are my thoughts on the slate. Thanks for reading.