NHL Musings

There are many ways to twist and turn numbers to make them sway to the side that you want them to. A lot of the times most folks use percentages to make their decisions while constructing their daily fantasy line ups. That would be great if you were actually awarded fantasy points for ‘playing the percentages’ but as we all know the last time we checked there are no such bonuses in daily fantasy sports. The second mistake that players make is that they look at the whole season statistics as opposed to say maybe the last three weeks. By using full season statistics you are implying that a team has not suffered a major injury or they have not been working on something that they should be working on. Let’s take the penalty kill for instance. If you know that the Tampa Bay Lightning have given up just 16 goals in 22 games one would think that it would be safe to stay away from the Chicago power play this evening. Now, the Chicago power play has been nothing to write home about lately as the have scored just three goals in their last 21 power play attempts but let’s take a look at the Lightning over the last three weeks. Their 13 power play goals given up in the last 10 games may just sway you a little into taking Maybe Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane or Nick Schmaltz as they all skate on the Blackhawks top power play line.

Another team that has had their numbers skewed a bit is the Toronto Maple Leafs as losing a player like Auston Matthews for a considerable amount of games surely must take its toll and it has. Their 15 power play goals in 60 attempts would show us that the team scores 25% of the time on the power play so far this season. This is good enough to be tied for seventh in the league in power play percentage but he truth of the matter is that neither 15 goals nor 60 penalties drawn is that great of number in the grand scheme of things. There are seven teams lower than Toronto that have scored 15 or more power play goals while all but Winnipeg has taken more penalties. Over the last nine games it has gotten even worse as just four power play goals in their last 24 opportunities. While John Tavares, Mitchell Marner and Morgan Reilly do very well on the even strength situations maybe Nazem Kadri and Patrick Marleau would need the power play to start clicking before you start rostering them. Now let’s take a look at some of tonight’s matchups.

Colorado brings their top ranked power play unit to the desert to take on the Arizona Coyotes. The Avalanche have scored a massive 11 power play goals over their last eight games while Arizona has only given up five power play goals all year. Yes, you read that right. The Coyotes have been short-handed 62 times so far this season and have managed to kill off 57 of them which is first in the league with a 91.9 penalty kill percentage. As you can see there really is no advantage here.

Although the Ottawa Senators have given up 23 power play goals in the first 22 games the Dallas Stars have been a team not able to capitalize with the extra attacker. If ever was a night that the Stars could improve on this it should be tonight in front of their home crowd which is where they have scored eight of their 12 power play goals this season. Don’t be surprised if Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov are one of the higher owned lines of the night as Ottawa also leads the league in goals against with 94 of them. Let’s move on to some individual players who have been lighting it up of late.

With both Colorado and Tampa Bay scoring a lot of goals of late it’s no surprise to see Nikita Kucherov atop the leader board over the last two weeks. His four goals and 11 points over that time frame is tied with only Matt Duchene for most in the league while both Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon have each found the score sheet 13 times over the last eight games that Colorado has played.

Defensively speaking both Morgan Rielly of Toronto and Thomas Chabot of Ottawa have at least averaged a point per game over the last three weeks while Minnesota’s Mathew Dumba has lit the lamp seven times to go along with two assists over the last 10 games.

Hopefully this article gave you a little more insight as to how to read statistics and percentages. Follow me on twitter @elctrceye

About the Author

  • Tom Woollam (elctrceye)

  • Tom Woollam is a freelance DFS writer and has been a member here at RotoGrinders.com since December 2011. He has played Fantasy Sports for the last 30 years and has been in the daily fantasy sports game for the last four. You can find him on twitter @elctrceye.

  • TheBeastUerdMe

    Great Insight! I really liked how you broke everything down for the novice NHL DFS player (me).
    Please keep this article/blog going. I know that I may be speaking for other people as well, “We appreciate you”!

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