NHL | The Diamond Standard | Jan. 14/20 | Forgotten Value Plays |

C: Derek Stepan (ARI3)

Coyotes’ LN3 Derek Stepan has been shooting far too often for someone of his salary range. The Sharks lower lines struggle, especially without top man Logan Couture, so look for Stepan to come in at low ownership, a solid floor, a sneaky ceiling to use as a one-off, with Kessel, or maybe Jakob Chychrun. Also worth mentioning; Stepan had one of his best games of the season last time out vs. San Jose. An ARI3 stack of Stepan and Kessel is my fav late hammer of the night.

Honourable Mention: Christian Dvorak (ARI1), Pierre Engvall (TOR3), Nick Bonino (NSH3), Anthony Cirelli (TB2)

W: Dominik Kubalik (CHI1)

Blackhawks’ winger Dominik Kubalik has been sneakily one of the new year’s best DFS NHL winger options. Kubalik is a consistent shooter, he has a great matchup, he’s a LN1/PP2, and all new year he has been a walking double digits on DraftKings. He pairs great with Jonathan Toews along with or as a Kane pivot, or as a one off in either format. Kubalik is probably due for regression sooner rather than later, and CHI’s lines are far from settled, but from his lack of salary/ownership I’ll continue to ride him vs. the Sens. If you want to spend down I even like a Dominik winger stack tonight. Just slam in corresponding C’s, and tomorrow laugh your way to the bank. And by bank I mean Deposit button.

Honourable Mention: Dominik Simon (PIT1), Dominik Kahun (PIT2), Danton Heinen (BOS3)

D: Nick Holden (VGK)

Knowing VGK it’s hard to say which Nick will end up starting, but my hopes are pinned very hard on it being Nick Holden. Along with CGY and MON, BUF happens to allow/create unimaginable DFS production from opposition defenders. Now, I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to go off, or as solid as his more expensive teammates, but when you consider his salary, his (small sample size/new year) floor, lack of ownership, AND he’s playing the Sabers, let’s just say there’s far more chances Holden is underpriced than fairly priced. There’s lots of defensive value options for this slate, but I’m fixated on finding something cheap and another option to stack with Patches and Stone/VGK2. I’m hoping there’ll be a ton of extra VGK love to go around, so look to the fringes. Holden is absolutely my guy, even if he doesn’t find the scoresheet my hope is to get 3x value from him on DK.

Honourable Mention: Rasmus Sandin (TOR3), Noah Dobson (NYI3), Adam Larsson (EDM2), Ben Hutton (LA3).

G: Robin Lehner (CHI)

Tonight, two things greatly worry me about the goalie values. Firstly, the implied worst case scenarios are horrendous, whether it’s Quick, Dubz, Dominque, or even Elvis, this downsides are not only daunting, but downright slate ending. Secondly, I never like chasing a goalie who has such little SO upside, but here I am once again loving an away goalie vs. the Sens. I never learn.
Lehner hasn’t been great this year, but he’s been surprisingly good on the road, only losing once in regulation since the middle of December. Lehner will see a fair amount of shots, and while he’ll probably let in a couple, his downside is quite clearly the greener grass on the other side of the potential disaster that awaits all the other value options. Worth mentioning; Lehner played with the Sens, it wasn’t pretty, he’s a completely different person now, and considering he’s in solid form I’m looking for a huge defensive game from the Hawks. Unlikely, but a hope none the less.

Honourable Mention: Jimmy Howard (DET), Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ, Pekka Rinne (NSH).

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Comments

  • ifthethunder

    Louis Domingue had a ridiculous weekend. Not only did he shut down the Caps and Lightning, it was B2B! Could obviously just be a fluke event.

    However…because my main lineup has a few of the most expensive Leafs, my second one has him in. Just in case. (I don’t MME, usually just 2 – 4 lineups.)
    ~

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @ifthethunder said...

    Louis Domingue had a ridiculous weekend. Not only did he shut down the Caps and Lightning, it was B2B! Could obviously just be a fluke event.

    However…because my main lineup has a few of the most expensive Leafs, my second one has him in. Just in case. (I don’t MME, usually just 2 – 4 lineups.)
    ~

    For me, Barrie is one of the biggest locks of the slate, and I’m super against taking a player vs. a goalie too, so will expect a regression game. Also due to the weekend expecting Dom’s ownership to be slightly higher than it should be, making his chase less worthwhile. Still makes sense tho, instant GPP pivot against the Leafs chalk ownership.

  • ifthethunder

    @sirrobert6 said...

    For me, Barrie is one of the biggest locks of the slate, and I’m super against taking a player vs. a goalie too, so will expect a regression game. Also due to the weekend expecting Dom’s ownership to be slightly higher than it should be, making his chase less worthwhile. Still makes sense tho, instant GPP pivot against the Leafs chalk ownership.

    Barrie is one of those Leafs. I’ll give you a hint about the other two: they’re both centers. ;-)

    As for the Dom l.u., I’m trying to go contrarian with him, and a bunch of Edmonton Oilers. If the Devils can shock everyone and break the slate, maybe the Oilers can, too.
    ~

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