NHL | The Diamond Standard | Jan. 16/20 | Forgotten Value Plays |
I’ll extend a few olive branches that NYI are at home, the Isles are much better with Cizikas playing, and last game they did just score 8 vs. the lowly Red Wings. However, don’t be surprised if Panarin & friends go over-owned, and now that NYI is at home the matchups of over-owned NYR1/NYR2 should at least lessen the effectiveness and use in GPP. All that being said; NYI is quite top heavy, and NYR3 should go under the radar of both NYI matchups and DFS alike. There aren’t as many reasons to spend down at C, especially with MacKinnon and Matthews looking like pure flames, but NYR’s third line C Filip Chytil provides excellent value as a one off cash, and/or in GPP with his winger Kakko.
Honourable Mention: Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (COL3), Nick Bonino (NSH3), Dominic Toninato (FLA3)
Once again we are met with a slate dominated by one heavily favoured team playing either the Devils or the Red Wings. Tonight it happens to be WAS playing NJ, and no Red Wings to be found. I’m very interested in taking advantage of the WAS lower lines, in particular WAS3, and their speedy winger Carl Hagelin.
As a whole, WAS is rather underpriced. Alex Ovechkin should be the most expensive winger AND over 8k on DK, and it seems DK may have up Backstrom’s and Zibanejad’s salaries. If you’re looking to get pieces of WAS but only have 4k each way, their third line is looking as some of the best forgotten value of the slate. Hagelin is far more of a GPP option than cash, but with the highest game total AND favourite on the slate he works for both formats, but carries far more cash risk. NJ’s lower lines, or in reality most players in the NHL, will and would be burned by Hagelin’s speed, but tonight he will face a far slower opposition in NJ’s lower lines. A goal could be 5x on DK, an apple would be near 3.5x, and from his salary and ownership, with any multi-point game he’ll break the slate. Don’t expect a repeat of the weekend, I’ll side with Vegas and expect a surplus of goals. Carl Hagelin as a one off or paired with Lars Eller is another great, cheap, low owned, high ceiling stack.
Honourable Mention: Tyler Johnson (TB2), Craig Smith (NSH3), Emil Bemstrom (CBJ2), Danton Heinen (BOS2)
Tonight’s slate offers a proverbial ton of defensive value options, lots of spend up options, and there’s even a plethora of guys who are too cheap (see: Kevin Shatterkirk, Sean Walker, or Esa Lindell), tonight however, there’s one that stands out as massive value, potential ceiling, and someone who should be more expensive, and that someone is PHI2’s Dman Travis Sanhiem.
This slate’s focus on one-off defenders is around a few different teams, namely vs. MON, CGY, and BUF (PHI, TOR, DAL). Looking at the options, Sanhiem is the run-away most valuable. Sanhiem is at home playing 20+min, he has a great matchup, a solid floor, and will be low owned. As I mentioned, there’s so many value options tonight, so while guys like Barrie, Carlson, and Klingberg have all the upside imaginable, also make sure too keep the cheap salaries in mind too.
Honourable Mention: Troy Stecher (VAN1), Rasmus Sandin (TOR3), Noah Dobson (NYI3), Dante Fabbro (NSH1), Mike Reilly (OTT3), Will Butcher (NJ3)
As usual, the cheap goalies have serious risk, but NYR’s Alex Georgiev is far, far too cheap, and given his upside is one of my all around favourite goalie options of the night.
Now, to be clear, what should happen is NYI scores 4. There’s obvious risk; as of late NYR has been in some high scoring games so I’m not excited about the prospect. However, his salary sticks out like a sore thumb and he’s the most viable of all the cheap goalies, by a long shot. I get the Isles are at home, but Varlamov looks to be in the beginnings of a downswing, and from Georgiev’s salary all we need is the win. NYR has a goalie battle developing, and while King Henrick is more likely to be traded, Georgiev is a capable #1 who should see some progressive results sooner rather than later. He’ll see a ton of shots, and outside last game’s destruction of the Wings the Isles have been super underwhelming. When you want a super top heavy card, look to spend down on D with the mass amount of options, and in a couple cards take a few of the names listed as another way to create savings as well.