NHL | The Diamond Standard | Jan. 18/20 | Forgotten Value Plays |
As a whole, the LA Kings are far too cheap, but in particular their LN2 C Jeff Carter stands out as one of the slate’s best multi-format value plays.
Simply put, PHI’s Brian Elliott isn’t a capable goalie, and while the Flyers have all the ability to score a couple in response, one team is priced in the mid-range and will be owned (the Flyers), and the other is severely undervalued as an away team and will be vastly underowned whether in comparison or just are in general (the Kings). LA is super sneaky vs. the Flyers; over the past five years failing to find a victory in only a trio of results, so don’t be surprised by a Kings result, bet on it. Also, it should be noted that Elliot was lit up for 4 goals on 15 shots last time out, and if LA’s Jeff Carter has three or more shots on net, he should easily pay off, especially from his DK salary.
Honourable Mention: Paul Stastny (VGK1), Dominic Toninato (FLA3), Nick Bonino (NSH3), Jason Dickinson (DAL3), Adam Gaudette (VAN3)
Tonight’s slate provides a ton of full line-stack options, but one of my favourite of the slate has to be NSH3, and in particular winger Rocco Grimaldi.
Overall, this slate doesn’t provide a lot of solid value winger options. That doesn’t exactly mean spending up is the only option, as the midrange seems chalked full of potential slate breakers (see: Arvidsson (NSH), Atkinson (CBJ), Hoffman (FLA3), and VAN2). In any case, Ullmark will need to stand on his head, which he is capable of, but the Sabers have a particular weakness vs. teams that have active defenders. The Preds are just that team, and the lower lines should walk all over BUF. I’m extremely excited to see their ownership as one offs, especially Grimaldi, who unfortunately doesn’t have the greatest TOI, nor the best floor, but he has all the upside of a mid-range salary for a discounted price. I would probably keep him to GPP, but NSH3’s Rocco Grimaldi has broken slates before, and my image of this one has his fingerprints all over it.
Honourable Mention: Joel Armia (MTL2), Tyler Toffoli (LA1), Emil Bemstrom (CBJ2), Craig Smith (NSH1), Joel Kiviranta (DAL1)
It is super tempting to look at a NSH defensive option, or utilizing more LA value, however I’m going back to the well on VGK and their VGK2 defender Nick Holden
This one is tough, though extremely viable. The Habs are the league’s run away leader in allowing opposition defender to produce at will. It’s getting to the point where we can apply all sorts of +EV scenarios to whatever less than viable defensive options their opposition presents. Tonight, it’s the Golden Knights, so we can look at guys like Hague and Holden, the latter of which doesn’t see PP time but plays with one of the slate’s best defensive options in Shea Theodore. In terms of DFS, no Karlsson makes VGK a much more appealing side, and when you want more Vegas to stack with VGK1 look to the defensive options mentioned, though I’ll be more heavy on Nick Holden.
Honourable Mention: Sean Walker (LA2), Will Butcher (NJ3), Dante Fabbro (NSH2), Christopher Tanev (VAN2)
There’s two particular sneaky spots tonight, the first is LA and their success over PHI, but the second is lesser known and far more risky, it’s the Blackhawks and their visit to the Leafs. Corey Crawford could actually find success this slate. Mind you, goals are expected, but once again from his range of salary, all we need is the win.
We have no question the 35+ save bonus is in play, it’s not necessarily a shoe-in, but if Crawford can keep it under 3, which he’s done in every start in 2020, we’re in business. So Crawford checks the first box, he’s seeing lots of shots. Secondly, CHI is hot right now riding a two-game winning streak, and while that’s not much to write home about, all season they’ve been consistently better on the road, and Crawford has looked really, really good as of late. Much like the Kings record vs. the Flyers, over the past half decade the Hawks have fallen to the Leafs in only a trio of results. It obviously carries a ton of risk, far more risk than the Kings, but I really like Corey Crawford and the Hawks to surprise a lot of people this slate. Don’t expect the “you know what”, but in GPP settings that’s not out of the question.
Honourable Mention: Jimmy Howard (DET), Jon Quick (LA), Mackenzie Blackwood (NJ)
- CHI sleepers
- Matthews will probably score, but so will Kirby Dach.
- VGK/MTL game stack
- Lots of elite DFS options on either side, may as well over-commit.
- FLA heavy stacks
- DET is #bad and should be tired.
- LA Value
- Too cheap, lots of floor.
- CBJ heavy stacks
- NJ is #bad, especially if it’s Schneider. (oh god, )
- NSH defenders
- If you only pick NSH and VGK defenders, you’re probably going to win lots of money.
- Stack DAL vs. Eric Staal Line
- MIN1 is #bad 5v5, figure out which Stars line gets ‘em and go for it.
- VAN sleepers
- Excellent late hammer options, lower lines especially. You can bet on it!