NHL Top Line (11/16)

Introduction

I’m at it again, I haven’t done one of these posts since baseball season a season and a half ago and I wish I could have found time to have continued it because I enjoyed the analysis involved. Like then, life circumstance has given me the time to do something like this again (for more unfortunate circumstances this time). Since I have had to cut back my DFS play but still wanted to do something that revolved around that, I have decided to try my hands at a similar type of blog as my baseball one.
Without further ado, I bring you a nice 6 game slate tonight involving some interesting plays.

Boston Bruins (107) vs. Dallas Stars (-118) O/U – 5.5 goals

The first tilt involves Tuukka Rask (4-4-0) and his 3.20 adjGAA between the pipes against Ben Bishop (6-5-1) with his 2.74 adjGAA and the Dallas Stars. As of this writing the Stars are looking at 54.13% implied win odds to the Bruins 48.31% odds. Below you will see current team line projections and potential value associated with them. If I am able to continue this blog at a regular interval I will, hopefully, expound upon my game analysis.

Buffalo Sabres (+177) vs. Winnipeg Jets (-197) O/U – 6 goals

Second on the board we have Carter Hutton (7-6-1) with a 2.78 adjGAA leading the Sabres out on the ice against Laurent Brossoit (3-0-0), the Winnipeg Jets and his 1.75 adjGAA. Vegas has the Jets pegged as a 66.33% favorite, which makes Buffalo a 36.10% road dog. The Buffalo side makes for an interesting, potential, tournament pivot against an on-fire Brossoit who is allowing a full goal less per game than he has historically.

Los Angeles Kings (+131) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-145) O/U – 5.5 goals

Next, we have one of the more interesting games on the slate. On the Kings side, we have the young buck in Cal Petersen (0-0-0) against Corey Crawford (4-6-0) and the Blackhawks. Crawford has a 2.90 adjGAA coming into this game, but the Blackhawks have been floundering in recent days. Petersen is the wildcard of this matchup. He stopped 15 of 16 shots in 35 minutes against Toronto the other night but has had relatively average stats in the AHL this season. If you like the narrative plays, he is playing just down the road from where he spent his college days at Notre Dame. And playing his first game in the United Center since losing in the Frozen Four his last year of college.

Washington Capitals (+127) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-140) O/U – 6 goals

The second half of this slate starts with Pheonix Copley (3-2-1) and the Caps opposing Philipp Grubauer (3-1-1) and the Avs. Copley has a 2.90 adjGAA on the season and Vegas has Washington pegged as a 41.67% dog on the road. Grubauer has struggled with a 3.75 adjGAA but has been buoyed by, arguably, one of the best top lines in hockey, at the moment. Vegas thinks the same thing and gives Colorado an implied odds of winning of 60.78%.

St. Louis Blues (+138) vs. Las Vegas Golden Knights (-153) O/U – 5.5 goals

The tilt in Sin City sets Jake Allen (4-4-3) and the Blues against Marc-Andre Fleury (8-7-1) and the Golden Knights. Jake Allen has struggled this season with a 3.94 adjGAA and the books agree, giving the Blues a 42.19% odd of winning. Fleury and the Knights, on the other hand, while not quite matching last years success, still have been handed a 60.16% odd of winning according to the books. Marc-Andre owns a 2.63 adjGAA on the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-121) vs. Anaheim Ducks (+110) O/U – 5.5 goals

To round out the night we have Toronto and, potentially, Garret Sparks (2-1-0) facing off against John Gibson (6-7-3) and the Ducks of Anaheim. Gibson sports a, fairly, respectable 2.72 adjGAA after signing a monster extension in August. Unfortunately, that has been outdone by Anaheim’s lack of firepower so far. Sparks and his 4.21 adjGAA get their respective B2B road start against a previously discussed struggling Ducks team. This is the perfect bounce back spot for either Garret or the Ducks offense, whoever blinks first loses.

Conclusion

I know this is not very thorough this time around, but I wanted to get a template started to that I can, hopefully, start diving deeper. Obviously, the most difficult part of NHL is the lack on information and the fact that line makeup may not even be known until warm-ups, so I will be doing what I can with what I have. Hopefully if you read up to this point it was relatively informative and I would appreciate any suggestions anyone might have. At the bottom I am going to be including projections for a few categories, let me know if those were or weren’t helpful. Good luck to everyone tonight and I hope to be back next week with more of these.

(FYI take Cal Petersen’s projections with a grain of salt, I included his AHL stats but even those are limited. The sample size just isn’t there. I think he is intriguing for tournaments, especially if stacking him with a full LA line but that is about it for me)

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