No Frills DFS Data - Golf with Chuck

Click here for an introduction of me and the PGA model

PGA Championship Review

For the most part, it followed up my horrid performance at the Masters with another stinker. Again, I went with a very different build for cash (this time focusing on mid priced guys only). The thought was that I felt these guys were all very close to being locks to make the cut and that with so many missing the cut and such a tough course, that would be more valuable than normal. So I targeted guys who should put well and avoid huge mistakes. I forgot to make sure they had talent. That line went 3/6 for still somehow managed to beat about 1/3 of my h2h opponents so I guess I wasn’t alone in my failure.

My 9 other lineups all went from 4/6 to 6/6 but without any Koepka and my highest exposure guy being Rory, there wasn’t too much going on. I was fortunate to have been very heavy on List, who was very low owned and performed very well. I was even more fortunate the gpp line that I also used for single entries went 6/6 with a bunch of top 10 finishers. That one made up for the complete disaster in the cash game to salvage the slate. 9 lineups of failure anchored by one that very, fortunately, had a disproportionate amount of money invested upon it.

Going Forward on Majors

I’ve read a million different times that majors are when you skip playing cash. Next time I’ll listen. My bankroll would thank me.

The Chuck Steak

Well, for this slate, I’m still trying to figure out what happened. Somewhere, somehow I bricked my model. It won’t update, it crashes each time. What’s very puzzling about it is that I’m very meticulous in version history. I work in tech for a real job and know all too well the benefits of storing previous iterations. When I recall recent versions of the model, it also doesn’t work, so I’m not even sure if it’s a problem with the code or what. I’m just mentally exhausted in trying to figure out what the issue may be and will go to sleep now. I plan on waking very early and cranking it out.

If anyone is curious, I’m currently on version 6.3.4

Sadly, this means I won’t likely have a list of the guys I’m favorable on prior to lock.

Thoughts on the slate

Don’t know, can’t even see the data all compiled together in one place. But I have two thoughts.

I’m a huge fan of playing and being disappointed by Niemann. This is a course I’m eagerly playing him. Even if I get everything working and the model says it hates him, I’m going to be manually jamming him in plenty this slate.

I’m also a big believer in Jordan Spieth. If you’ve been reading this then you know he’s usually someone I have been heavier on than the crowd. But not like this. The last tourney was the single greatest putting performance of his entire career, and by a very considerable margin. Take that away and the performance was nothing special. There are two ways to interpret that. He’s back and ready to conquer or he’s going to be overpriced and over owned. He is also from Texas for what it’s worth. I’ll play him if the model tells me too, but if the model doesn’t get working then I’ll gladly fade him.

About the Author


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