No Frills DFS Data - Players Championship Player Pool

Click here for an introduction of me and the PGA model

The Player Pool

Dustin Johnson
Lucas Glover
Hideki Matsuyama
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Tiger Woods
Henrik Stenson
Chesson Hadley
Rory McIlroy
Luke List
Corey Conners
Talor Gooch
Paul Casey
Justin Thomas
Adam Scott
Jim Furyk
Adam Long
Ryan Moore
Jon Rahm
Charles Howell III
Francesco Molinari
Sergio Garcia
Cameron Champ
Brooks Koepka
Ian Poulter
Michael Thompson
Satoshi Kodaira
Cameron Smith
Byeong Hun An
Matt Wallace
Bubba Watson
Patrick Cantlay
Keith Mitchell
Jason Kokrak
Sungjae Im

I’m quite surprised by the player pool. It’s not at all whom I was expecting it to favor going into it and my actual lineups look like they’ll be vastly different than my dummies. I can’t tell if that’s a signal of progress, regression, or just random noise. Most importantly, looking at simply the prices, I’d have imagined this would be 100% Spieth but the underlying numbers reinforce his plummeting DFS salary. I am still tempted to jam him in there but we’ll see how I feel about it tomorrow.

This doesn’t account for weather. If I feel weather will have an impact before lock, I have a few other contingencies set up to deploy. If I go with a weather pivot, it will dramatically alter the shape of my player pool – it’s that evenly distributed that even a slight nudge will have a pretty large impact. The one time I used my weather model, the lineups were half a standard deviation better so I’m very hopeful weather is a factor because I like a sample size of 2 about twice as much as a sample size of 1.

Serenity Now: A Festivus Of Exposure

After agonizing over my model promoting heavy exposure on my certain players, Fortuna spins the wheel again and gives me a very evenly balanced grouping with really nobody heavily favored. This is quite uncommon, especially since a lot of my different models are correlated. This was the goal after all in the correlation, getting similar builds from similar metrics but up until now, it’s been a lot of “ok, here’s 5 more of those guys and a pivot.”

While I’m still glad I put a lot of deep thought into exposure so going forward I’m prepared with a plan of action, it is mildly frustrating that you do so much homework preparing for something and then have to stick it in your back pocket for later. It’s still helped me shape my final roster this week for sure, but the crisis I was ready to avert failed to materialize.

Musings of the Chez

Yet again the Chez Reavie Model fails to put Chez Reavie into a lineup. This is incredibly enlightening to me because my model always wanted him pretty heavily earlier in the year and last year as well. I need to spend some time under Chez’s hood and really look into what’s going on with him. It’s my assumption that his peripheral numbers haven’t changed much but his recent success has caused his price to jump and thus my model now looks for greener pastures. Will have to take a look. Either way, I did have an incredibly profitable streak when he pulled himself away from the cut line and really stepped it up. Just wish his price would drop or his metrics get a boost so I can jam him in there for sake of nostalgia.

I also don’t have any Michelson lately but have been getting some helpings of Furyk. I’m not at him at a level where Furykapocalypse reunion tour can get on the road but I’ll let him continue to do opening acts. I’m especially liking his lineups as well because with his savings the rest of the group is pretty talented.

Notable Fades

There are just so many players that my model skipped over and I thought were reasonably priced that I spent a bunc of time looking at the raw data myself just to better understand why. I wasn’t worried about bugs this time because I’ve started adding canaries to my coal mine. Basically, if a Turd Ferguson or Bubba Hotep appear in my lineups, then that means I need to take another look at the code. These are players that I’ve manipulated so they will appear enticing because their salary is so low or something like that but ultimately shouldn’t ever be allowed for consideration because they each break a rule of sorts. This did happen today and it was great because it saved me a lot of time as I was able to recognize the problem immediately.

That’s the real benefit to me writing this stuff. With each new blog, I’m energized and really proactively thinking about next steps. After a year of simple stagnation, I’ve been pushed to include all kinds of improvements as well as study up more on both the game of golf and also better formulate my cash and gpp strategies. This has also carried over to other sports. I’ve made notable improvements with my hockey model as well :)

The way too early final core

This will most definitely change before lock, but if I were to get hit by a bus today, this is the player core my next of kin would inherit.

Hideki Matsuyama
Lucas Glover
Dustin Johnson
Luke List
Corey Conners
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Paul Casey
Justin Thomas
Tiger Woods
Jim Furyk
Talor Gooch
Rory McIlroy
Adam Scott
Chesson Hadley
Adam Long
Charles Howell III
Jon Rahm
Cameron Champ
Bubba Watson
Henrik Stenson
Sergio Garcia
Ryan Moore
Ian Poulter
Michael Thompson
Byeong Hun An

Goodluck everyone, hope the slate treats you well.

About the Author

Comments

  • timusbr

    one thing…..what you show is a player pool

    If you use 2 or more of the same guys on multiple LU’s thats a core.

    At least my definition.

  • DFSx42

    Yeah that’s a good point and I’ll be sure to clarify going forward, I should better define things

    most of them pop up at least twice in both iterations though. You can always assume the bottom ones and maybe a few more is a single serving

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