Observation Nuggets going into Week 3

Introduction
Results came back down to earth this week as prices got tighter. I love it when prices are tighter because the work you do in terms of research means more as just scrolling through prices won’t be viable like it was back in Week 1. Week 2 was fun to watch and sweat out and hopefully everyone did well. My apologies for not writing the Week 2 DK Cash Games blog as things got hectic for me but we should be good to go for Week 3. What I’m going to do here is just have a collection of thoughts that I came to from watching the games and taking a preliminary examination of the slate to come. (Primarily price-wise) Let’s not make this intro too long and get right into it.

Observations

- People going on about Austin Ekeler being better than Melvin Gordon need to take a chill pill. Yes his yards per carry are good and all but that isn’t a determinant of future performance. The reason he’s doing well per touch is because a portion of the time he’s in the game WITH Gordon and defenses are (correctly) focusing on Gordon and that can lead to some nice designed plays for Ekeler to take advantage of sometimes. He definitely has a role in the offense but he isn’t a focal point. He’s not the one doing the grunt work of being an every down back. It’s like saying kids are awesome because you’re only there for the fun parts when you go over a friend’s house and they’re being all cute.

- Pat Mahomes and Ryan Fitzpatrick are playing at a unsustainable rate. By default they can’t keep this up. This is eerily similar to the Deshaun Watson hype wagon last year. The positive thing is that Mahomes is not showing all the terrible signs Watson was showing on film last year. Andy Reid is an offensive genius and is the perfect coach for Mahomes. He’s still a rookie though and his college tape still show things to be concerned about but it’s possible learning from Reid last year could’ve been really good for him. I’m more optimistic about him than I was with Watson but it’s something to be vigilant about. On the other hand, we’ve seen this movie with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s not going to keep this up because we have a 14 year sample of him not keeping it up. He’s truly played great so far but that’s true until it isn’t; I won’t be riding the wagon until it falls off.

- Speaking of Deshaun Watson he had a good fantasy day in Week 2 but was his usual roller coaster like self. I’m getting some unsettling Blake Bortles vibes from him although I think his ceiling is greater than Bortles’ for his career. I’ll reserve him for GPPs when he comes off a bad week and everyone is off him cause he is extremely untrustworthy for cash games.

- It looks like Michael Thomas has become THE focal point of this Saints offense (At least until Ingram returns). Mike Gillislee is playing like trash and I’ve been hesitant to play Thomas as his price increases due to the fact he’s not a speed demon and isn’t a big play threat. But if he’s all they got in the passing game we might have the extremely rare situation where a Drew Brees-led offense has a concentration of targets. I’ve been hesitant to play him in GPPs because of what I just mentioned and his price going up every week but in cash games it looks like he’ll get an insane dose of targets going his way. He’s also a master of making contested catches so his targets should have a higher chance of converting. I’m still nervous but at this point the tape speaks for itself. Be ready to move off of him when Ingram comes back though cause they won’t continue this when they have a competent RB to run in between the tackles again.

-Kamara is also being used the same way he was being used last year when Ingram was playing. He’s not going to ever be a volume monster cause he’s too small of a back. Ingram coming back could actually be a positive thing for Kamara’s future as his usage won’t increase but the quality of his touches will since Ingram with command attention that the current stable of RBs just don’t. At his price I’ll probably be staying away until Ingram returns and his price decreases because of the “lesser” role he’ll have.

- David Johnson hasn’t become a worse player. This is all about how he is being deployed. With his decreased price and ownership if we get any indication that he’s going to be used how he was in the past I’m going ALL IN on him. He’s still the same guy so this is purely a case of what’s going on around him. DJ is still really good at football.

- These game-flow dependant backs like Chris Thompson and Matt Breida are not going to be doing this every game. They’re both very small players that can’t get full-time workloads by themselves even if their counterparts get hurt. While Thompson has Captain Checkdown Alex Smith as his QB this year don’t treat these performances like gospel and now with their respective price increases; relying on them to deliver every week could be dangerous.

Conclusion
There isn’t much structure to this blog it’s just more of a stream of consciousness sort of thing to get my thoughts in writing. Good way to clear my head going into the new week. Hopefully these tidbits put you on to something you weren’t thinking about before and just opens your minds to other possibilities. Comment below about some Observation Nuggets you came across after last week and heading into this week!

Happy Grinding!

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Comments

  • docholiday1846

    A lot of this is what I was telling myself going into week two. No way Mahomes, MT, Kamara, Fitz etc go ham like that two straight weeks. Sure, enough, they did.

    I’m sure people said the same thing about Wentz/Watson last year, only to be wrong. I actually hope you’re right, but I am a little worried I’m simply late to the party with these guys.

  • Inujv87

    @docholiday1846 said...

    A lot of this is what I was telling myself going into week two. No way Mahomes, MT, Kamara, Fitz etc go ham like that two straight weeks. Sure, enough, they did.

    I’m sure people said the same thing about Wentz/Watson last year, only to be wrong. I actually hope you’re right, but I am a little worried I’m simply late to the party with these guys.

    NFL is a volatile sport and while it’s extremely hard to do; you have to trust the process. Watson was on fire last year but on film he was making a lot of mistakes and that reared it’s head Week 1.

    And Kamara didn’t do well for his price last week. There’s no guarantees in football we can only hope to be right more than everybody else by sticking to our guns when they’re informed by quality analysis of film and stats.

    Thanks for the comment!

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